Monday, August 17, 2015

The Commissioner's Corner - Week 19

League News


The trade deadline ends in a flourish as the league sets a record for most trades in it's long and storied history!




(Because why would this website make it easy to put a fucking image into a blog without re-sizing it to shit?  Good luck reading that)

Quick recap of each team's moves:

Colin - Made no moves.  With a 6.5 game lead over second place, Colin did not call in any reinforcements.  Miggy finally gets off the DL and will help down the stretch.

TJ - Made two moves, acquiring Hanley Ramirez and Jake Arrieta for his 1st, 6th, and 9th round picks next year.  If Arrieta can keep it rolling and Hanley can stay healthy, TJ could likely be the biggest winner coming out of this year's trade deadline.  He will be a force in the playoffs.

Jarrett - Made no moves.  Despite being .500 or better in all 5 offensive categories, he ranks in the bottom half of the league totals in four of them.  Surprising he didn't at least grab a closer, as he is 5-12-2 in that category and is 8th in total saves.

Richie - Acquired Joey Votto, Eric Hosmer, Stephen Strasburg, and Johnny Cueto but lost Manny Machado and his first two picks in 2016 in the process.  Combine that with his deal earlier in the year with Adrian for Zach Britton and Richie will not be drafting until the 4th round next season.

Kurt - The most active buyer at the deadline, Kurt added Dee Gordon, Kyle Seager, Jason Heyward, Drew Smyly, Greg Holland, and Luke Gregerson to the mix.  He had to say goodbye to Michael Wacha and some draft picks, but the former commissioner is hoping his quantity over quality (relative to the other names that switched teams) will help bolster him for the playoff run.

Tim - On Thursday, Tim looked like a buyer and traded his 6th and 11th round picks for Jordan Zimmerman and Roberto Osuna.  On Sunday, he traded away serious power in Chris Davis and got back Mark Teixeira, Matt Kemp, and Adrian's 6th and 11th.  I just don't get it.  I think Tim's franchise got better with the Davis deal, but his 2015 team did not.

Ben - Pulled the rip chord on 2015 and sold away any assets he had, and he did a damn fine job.  He's looking at two 1st rounders, two 6th rounders, two 7th rounders, and two 9th rounders in 2016 while holding onto Rizzo, Cano, Brandley, Pollock, and Scherzer for keepers.  It'll be strange not having him in the playoffs this season - and that's not a foregone conclusion - but Ben has set himself up fantastically for 2016.

Alex - Beats out Ben for best seller this year, picking up a 1st, 2nd, two 6th, a 10th, and two 14th round draft picks to go along with the usual suspects McCutchen & Stanton plus newcomers Bryant and Cole.  All signs point to Alex being a powerhouse in 2016.

James - Ever the optimist, James was the only manager outside of the current top 6 to be a buyer.  He's .500 or worse in 8 categories and will need all the help he can get down the stretch.  Maimonis was able to add power bats in Edwin Encarnacion and David Ortiz but lost a lot of speed with the departure of Dee Gordon and Starling Marte.  He was also able to add Michael Wacha, Carson Smith, Edinson Volquez, and Francisco Rodriguez to a staff sorely hurting for arms.  With a legitimate upgrade to the Staaf, marginal upgrades to the offense, and a 9 game playoff deficit, James will need an historic run to make the 2015 playoffs.

Adrian - Did a really nice job with what he had to improve his keepers.  His Dozier-Cueto-barren wasteland keeper choices are now Machado-Marte-Dozier-Chris Davis.  I liked everything he did until the Davis trade where he just gave up too much, but his keepers are vastly improved and his draft board is slightly above default, gaining an extra 3rd and 10th in exchange for his 6th and 11th.

Milestones and Historical Perspective

The current gap between 3rd and 4th would be the biggest all-time.

Hey, look at this!

With 18 weeks in the books, the schedule will no longer remain balanced.  Everyone has played everyone twice, and now some playoff hopefuls will have a more difficult road to the post-season.  Here's the strength of schedule for the league's final 4 weeks:

Top 6
opponent
Opponent
Proj W%
Opponent
Act W%
Opponent
Avg W%
Kurt30.5510.5410.546
Colin40.5320.5490.541
Richie30.5340.5450.539
TJ30.5310.5240.527
Ben20.5080.4980.503
Adrian20.4850.4910.488
Jarrett20.4760.4790.478
Tim10.4730.4520.462
James20.4510.4680.459
Alex20.4600.4530.457

Kurt has the most difficult schedule the rest of the way and draws the current 1st and 2nd place in weeks 19 and 21. A final week match up against Alex could be just what the doctor ordered if he finds himself in a battle for the last playoff spot.

Colin has the second-most difficult schedule the rest of the way, squaring off against a top 6 opponent (as of this posting) every week until the playoffs.  He's a lock for the playoffs and has a 7 game cushion for a bye - can he hold on?

Richie has the third-most difficult schedule and is the only team that finishes his season with three consecutive playoff teams.  With his trade deadline acquisitions and double-digit game lead over the non-playoff teams, he's hoping to have enough to hold on.

TJ is the fourth and final manager to play 3 teams in the current playoff picture.  He finishes with Tim (6th), Ben (7th), Kurt (5th), and Colin (1st).  With Colin's unrelenting schedule, their match-up in week 22 could potentially be for the regular-season championship.

Ben sold at the deadline and is 10 games out, so it's difficult to envision O'Connor making a playoff run.  Still, the league's most successful manager plays Richie (4th), Alex (8th), and James (9th); crazier things have happened.

Adrian finishes the year with Alex (8th), James (9th), Jarrett (3rd), Tim (6th).  Why do you care?  Because Adrian's current .336 winning percentage would be the worst all-time behind Drew's 70-135-15 .352% campaign last year.  Anytime you can challenge a record in the 13th season of a league, it's attention-grabbing.

Jarrett only faces 2 playoff teams the rest of the way and he is in great position to grab his second playoff bye in as many years. While Colin and TJ face difficult schedules, Jarrett surrounds his pivotal week 20 match up against Colin with James (9th) and Adrian (10th).  It looks as though the stars may have aligned for Jarrett.

Tim wins the strength-of-schedule-lottery and plays only one top-6 team the rest of the way. Slightly unfortunate that it's TJ but he'll certainly take it.  As long as he takes care of business against James in week 21, he is in great shape for the playoffs.  And how about this for the ultimate safety net; Adrian in the season finale.  Beginner's luck.

James was a buyer for this exact reason.  He's got a tough one this week in Jarrett, but his playoff spot is there for the taking after that.  He needs at least an 8 spot against Adrian in week 20 to make a run.  If he can get that, he sets himself up for a potentially pivotal match against Tim in week 21.  He's got Ben in week 22, another beatable opponent.  A big loss against Jarrett this week and it'll be too little too late.

Alex sold everything and everything, so despite having the league's easiest schedule the rest of the way he will likely not be able to capitalize.

Incentives

WWE Belt

Payouts: $50 at the All-Star Break (week 15), $75 at the end of the regular season

Belt holder: TJ wins again, 6-3 over Adrian.  4 weeks to go!

Shutout Pool

Week 19 pot: $10

In week 18, Jarrett put up an 8 spot on Kurt but missed the shutout by 3 wins and 2 saves.

Neighborhood Rumble

Payouts:  $25 to the Islington and Westwood champion, $50 to the Tournament champ

Updates from Kurt

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