The Commissioner's Corner - Week 13

League News

The August 22nd Red Sox game is out.  Click here and fill in your availability for other games if you haven't already.  Seems like we all have busy summers and unfortunately it'll prevent us from getting the entire league to one game, but I'm still proposing we go to the game that most of us can go to.

Milestones and Historical Perspective

With nearly half of a season to go we're sure to be looking at a much different playoff picture come September than we are now.  But if the season were to end today, the Diamond Dynasty would have three sub-.500 playoff teams for the first time in league history.  Tim's .492 winning percentage would be the lowest winning percentage for a #4 seed ever, trailing the .509 marks by two championship campaigns: 2011 Kurt and 2005 Alex.

In other news, Richie (1,296) and Jarrett (1,292) are approaching 1,300 wins and face off this week.  Good luck to me.

Hey, look at this!

This is our brand new segment called "Hey, look at this!" where I find mildly interesting stats and present them to you in a way that may or may not mildly interest you.

These are 2015's weekly head to head records to date.  Pretty close to the actual standings with six of us either at or 1 +/- our H2H records.  If your H2H rank is better than your position in the standings right now, you're bad at winning (5-4 wins) or bad at losing (8-2 losses).  Or both.

Pos	Team	H2H
2	TJ	8-1-3
1	Colin	8-2-2
7	James	6-5-1
6	Richie	6-6-0
4	Tim	5-5-2
3	Jarrett	4-4-4
5	Kurt	5-6-1
8	Ben	4-5-3
9	Alex	3-7-2
10	Adrian	1-9-2

Incentives

WWE Belt

Payouts: $50 at the All-Star Break (week 15), $75 at the end of the regular season

Belt holder:  TJ wins again, this time by a 7-3 score over Kurt.  TJ has a .568 winning percentage in belt matches, which is actually slightly under his .579 season winning percentage.

We're quickly approaching the first payout!  There are four teams left that can win:

	How can they win?
Team	Week 13		Week 14
TJ wins by...	Beating or tying Colin	AND	Beating or tying Richie
Colin wins by...	Beating TJ	AND	Beating or tying Alex
Alex wins by...	Colin beating TJ	AND	Beating Colin
Richie wins by...	TJ beating Colin	AND	Beating TJ

"Good luck to TJ in week 13 and Richie in week 14!"   - Everyone

Shutout Pool
Week 13 pot: $35

No shutouts in week 12.  We did have a 9-1 win, Jarrett over Adrian, where Jarrett missed the shutout payday by 3 saves.   An argument could have been made for Colin coming the closest though, as his 7-3 victory over Richie saw him lose 9-8 in homers, 34-33 in RBI, and less than half a run in ERA.

Neighborhood Rumble

Payouts:  $25 to the Islington and Westwood champion, $50 to the Tournament champ

Dates: Week 16ish – talk to Kurt for more details.

The Commissioner's Corner - Week 12

League News

The league sees 7 teams separated by just 8 games while Adrian sinks further into the hopeless abyss.

Milestones and Historical Perspective

TJ's 6-4 victory over Ben marked his 10th straight week without a loss.  To put that in historical perspective, that's the 4th longest such streak in the 11 recorded years of the Diamond Dynasty (weekly stats not available on Yahoo! until 2004).  Here's a look at the longest streaks in league history:

	Manager		Length	Year
Longest win streak
	1)	Jarrett	10 weeks	2014
	2)	Richie	9 weeks	2014
	3)	Drew	8 weeks	2011
	3)	Kurt	8 weeks	2008
Longest lossless streak
	1)	Jarrett	16 weeks	2014
	2)	James	13 weeks	2013
	2)	Kurt	13 weeks	2012
	4)	TJ	10 weeks	2015
Longest winless streak
	T1)	Adrian	13 weeks	2010
	T1)	Drew	13 weeks	2013
	3)	Paul	10 weeks	2004
Lonest losing streak
	1)	Adrian	13 weeks	2010
	2)	Drew	8 weeks	2013
	T3)	Colin	7 weeks	2005
	T3)	James	7 weeks	2011

Hey, look at this!

This is our brand new segment called "Hey, look at this!" where I find mildly interesting stats and present them to you in a way that may or may not mildly interest you.

I was pulling up my Luck Calculator to run another check on the luck we've all been either enjoying or missing, and I realized - I screwed up.  

I was looking specifically at Tim, ready to put him on blast in this week's TCC (He's really skated through the first half of his inaugural year, wouldn't you agree?)  I had him pegged as the luckiest team in the league, playing well over his head.  But when I looked at the league totals again, he was consistently in the top 5.  It didn't make sense.

Then it hit me:  For 8 of our 10 categories, you want to be above the league average.  For ERA and WHIP, you want to be below (or so I'm told).  I didn't catch it the first time around and while the numbers were close, they weren't correct.  So here's an updated, accurate look at our luck through week 11 (sorted luckiest to unluckiest): 

Manager	Proj. W%	Act W%	Variance
Jarrett	0.463	0.532	0.069
James	0.428	0.459	0.031
Tim	0.483	0.509	0.026
Colin	0.618	0.641	0.023
Ben	0.441	0.464	0.023
Richie	0.486	0.500	0.014
Adrian	0.357	0.350	-0.007
Alex	0.517	0.473	-0.044
Kurt	0.567	0.505	-0.062
TJ	0.640	0.568	-0.072

Jarrett is the luckiest team in the DD this season.  He's caught a lot of teams at the right time and his actual winning percentage is way above what you'd expect based on his team stats.  With the adjustment, Tim is still on the lucky side but he doesn't deserve as much shit as I was going to shovel his way.  Still, fuck you Tim.  You should be killing all of us.

Amazingly, Kurt and TJ have been terribly unlucky to this point and have still managed to spend most of this season in the early playoff picture .  Check out TJ's projected winning percentage!  If he played an average team every week, he would be on pace for the second-best winning percentage in the history of the DD!  

Incentives

WWE Belt

Payouts: $50 at the All-Star Break (week 15), $75 at the end of the regular season

Belt holder:  Another week, another narrow victory for TJ.  The 6-4 win over Ben pushed belt holders' retention percentage over .700 in the short history of the incentive.  

If I'm correct, and I rarely am, Ben and Tim are the first teams eliminated from a chance at the All-Star Break payout.

Shutout Pool
Week 11 pot: $30

No one was close.  Pot grows to it's highest mark in 2015.

Neighborhood Rumble

Payouts:  $25 to the Islington and Westwood champion, $50 to the Tournament champ

Dates: Week 16ish – talk to Kurt for more details.

The Commissioner's Corner - Week 11

League News

Colin continues to distance himself from the musical chair crowd below him.

Milestones and Historical Perspective

A lot has been made of James's recent struggles; in the last 5 weeks he's only managed to win 10 categories.  While he's in rare company, this does not set the bar for worst 5 week stretch in DD history.  That honor goes to Adrian, who tallied just 8 wins over a 5 week period in late 2010 en route to the second worst season in league history.

Hey, look at this!

This is our brand new segment called "Hey, look at this!" where I find mildly interesting stats and present them to you in a way that may or may not mildly interest you.

Colin's 62 wins over the first 10 weeks is a franchise best, breaking his previous record of 61 which he achieved in championship 2004 season.  If he can keep this pace up he would have the most regular season wins in the 10-team era.  In contrast, Adrian's 34 wins over the first 10 weeks is tied for his worst start ever (2012) and third worst all time behind 2014 Drew (31 wins) and, of course, 2013 Drew (30).  God he sucked.

Incentives

WWE Belt

Payouts: $50 at the All-Star Break (week 15), $75 at the end of the regular season

Belt holder:  TJ plays Tim to a 5-5 in their first ever match up and keeps the belt for yet another week.  That's 6 in a row for Geers, who hasn't tallied more than 6 categories in any of his title defenses is doing just enough to hold on.  He's halfway to Jarrett's record.  Belt holders are 23-10 in belt defenses.

Shutout Pool
Week 11 pot: $25

Jarrett narrowly misses cashing in against (guess who) James, but settles for the 9-1 victory.  Jarrett lost Wins 2-1.  

Neighborhood Rumble

Payouts:  $25 to the Islington and Westwood champion, $50 to the Tournament champ

Dates: Week 16ish – talk to Kurt for more details.

Richie Back in Playoff Picture

The defending champion has found his way back into the playoff picture thanks to consistency and overall managerial savvy.  After a 23-34 start in which he could not string together consecutive wins or ties, Richie has shown why patience and consistency pay off, winning three in a row in six win fashion. 

The key to Richie's success has always been stability.  While other managers have at times been seen mortgaging the present for highly touted prospects, Richie's draft sleepers and early round targets are players that have been there before.  Richie made a bold statement over the past two years, trading everything he had for picks, then trading all of his picks for everything he could get en route to his first championship. 

With not much left in the tank and an anticipated rebuilding year, Richie has proven that consistency and patience pay off as much as high volume draft pick trades.  Richie has yet to win more than 6 games in one week, but finds himself tied for the final playoff spot and has now won 3 of the last 4 weeks either 6-4 or 6-3.  Next on the schedule for Richie is a Kurt's Team that has been trending in the wrong direction, and there's no reason he can't keep this up.  Look out top 6!  Richie's climb isn't over!

The Commissioner's Corner - Week 10

League News

The top 4 stay stagnant, Adrian and Alex gain ground, James's losing streak continues and Richie cracks the top 6 for the first time since week 3.

Milestones and Historical Perspective

I've been so excited about all these positive milestones that I've forgotten the ugly ones!

Jarrett was the first member to crack the 1,300 losses club with his 5-5 tie in week 6 against TJ.  He soon had company, as Adrian and Richie dealt each other their 1,300th losses in week 7.  Neat!

Hey, look at this!

This is our brand new segment called "Hey, look at this!" where I find mildly interesting stats and present them to you in a way that may or may not mildly interest you.

We're going streaking!!

2015's longest winning streak: 4 weeks (Colin, James)(...Ben...)
2015's longest losing streak: 5 weeks (Adrian)

2015's longest loss-less streak: 6 weeks (Colin*, TJ)

2015's longest win-less streak: 8 weeks (Adrian*)

*streak is still active

Incentives

WWE Belt

Payouts: $50 at the All-Star Break (week 15), $75 at the end of the regular season

Belt holder:  TJ played a scrappy Adrian team to a 5-5 tie and gets his 4th consecutive belt defense.  This would be more impressive if Jarrett hadn't ruined the belt streak stats last season.  He hasn't won more than 6 categories in any belt match up thus far.

Shutout Pool
Week 10 pot: $20

In week 9, Alex had a legitimate shot at $15 whole dollars at James' s  expense but could not close the gap in homers.  The pool grows to $20 for week 10.

Neighborhood Rumble

 
Payouts:  $25 to the Islington and Westwood champion, $50 to the Tournament champ

Dates: Week 16ish – talk to Kurt for more details.

The Luck Factor

Well boys, your CCO (Chief Content Officer) has done it again.  From the man that brought you Weekly Matchups, The Month That Was, Keeper Delta, You’re Fired!, and The Commissioner’s Corner, comes the most advanced analytical sabermetric-y stat you’ve seen yet.  Colin and Gentlemen, I give you...

*whooshing sound effects*

The Luck Factor

*Sound of an anvil falling*

For years we’ve toiled with outdated, inaccurate power rankings that don’t properly assess the gaps in category totals.  Allow me to demonstrate; let’s take a look at the league totals for the Wins category this year.  Conventional roto rankings would look like this:

Manager	Wins	Roto Points
Kurt	59	10
TJ	51	9
Colin	45	8
Richie	44	7
Jarrett	41	6
Alex	41	6
Ben	39	4
Tim	33	3
James	32	2
Adrian	32	2

Look at Kurt, lapping the field.  Just dominating the shit out of this category.  He would tally 10 roto points - and rightly so!  But look past that.  We’re saying that the gap between Kurt and TJ (8 wins) is the same as TJ and Colin (6 wins).  The roto rankings lack precision.  This was when I started to go Beautiful Mind on these numbers.

I’ve been striving to come up with a weighted power ranking system, but it always broke down when trying to incorporate the counting categories with the ratio categories.  A poor journalism major such as myself couldn’t figure out the puzzle - until last week.

I needed a baseline, and found one in league averages.  Then, I could get a better idea of how each of us fared in the categories.  I could identify each team’s “market share” of the league totals, and give proper credit where it’s due.  

Let’s go back to the Wins category and apply that logic:

Manager	Wins	League Avg
Kurt	59	+42%
TJ	51	+23%
Colin	45	+8%
Richie	44	+6%
Jarrett	41	-2%
Alex	41	-2%
Ben	39	-6%
Tim	33	-21%
James	32	-23%
Adrian	32	-23%

Now we’re working with something.  Kurt’s dominance is accurately captured with a 21-percentage point difference over second place Tim, vs second place Tim’s 15-percentage point difference over third place Colin.

If we push this out to the rest of the categories, we get the following results:

Alright, there’s a lot to digest in there.  Just keep in mind that 1.0 is the league average.  Anything above 1.0 is above league average, anything below 1.0 is below league average.  I also threw in some colors to easily identify areas of notable and extreme variance from the league average.  

So after all those big words and boring math talk, here’s what you came here for:

Colin and TJ have earned their spots atop the DD thus far.  Our lucky teams this year are Kurt, Jarrett, and Tim, who’s winning percentages are higher than expected based off of their team totals.  Alex, James, and Ben have been unlucky and should have better records.

Let’s push this thing into overdrive.  Go back to the examples from earlier with the Wins category.  Remember how the weighted categories more accurately depicted the gap between our totals?  Let’s keep running with that idea.

It’s easy to say that Tim has been luckier than Jarrett because Tim is 5 spots higher than his predicted spot, while Jarrett is only 2 spots higher than his predicted spot.  But I think we can quantify this to see who's actually the luckiest and unluckiest.

If the 1.00 figure is the league average, that would stand to reason that 1.00 equates to a .500% winning percentage.  So if we take the weighted totals and subtract .500 (I think that’s how it works):

Boom.  Here is your quantified luck so far from luckiest to unluckiest.

The Variance column is how far off of your expected winning percentage you are.  Tim's winning percentage is .082 higher than expected, while Alex’s winning percentage is a full .100 lower than expected.

Not surprisingly, we can see that 5 of the managers in the top 6 have enjoyed some sort of luck this season and are winning more games than expected, based off their team stats.  Colin’s .639 winning percentage, which would be second-best all time, is freaking legit.  Alex projects to be a third place team but is wasting away in 9th from his rotten luck.

This doesn’t necessarily mean that we can expect regression from the lucky teams, or a comeback from the unlucky teams.  The averages will change, players will get injured, and teams will look different. We'll check back in around the All-Star break to see how our luck has shifted!