Season Wrap-Up and Playoff Preview

Imagine going to a movie.  A really, really long movie.  And the ticket is $200.  And 80% of the way through it, you start to feel that 64oz soda in your bladder.  You try to make it but you have to pull the chord and take care of business.  You miss 10% of the movie, and unfortunately for you there was some amazing shit that happened.  You haven’t missed the best part, but you missed some critical moments.

That’s what happened to The Commissioner’s Corner this year.  Here’s what we missed over the final weeks of the season:

Week 20:  TJ jumps up to first place for the first time since week 14, Jarrett is close behind in 3rd.  Kurt leapfrogs Richie for 4th place; James starts his playoff push and moves from 9th to 8th.  TJ holds onto the belt with a dominant 9-0 victory over Ben and misses the shutout by one strikeout.

Week 21:  Jarrett crushes Adrian and jumps over Colin and TJ for 1st place.  Kurt takes the belt from TJ and becomes the first ever Rumble champion with a victory over Richie.  TJ drops to 3rd place.  James dominates Tim in a match up that was vital to his playoff survival; he is now 1.5 games behind Tim for the final spot with 9th place Ben on the docket for week 22.

Week 22:  In the season finale, Colin takes down TJ 7-3 and locks in his first regular season crown in 11 years.  A Yahoo! stat correction shakes the playoff picture like a snow globe as Richie’s 10-0 win is downgraded to an 8-0 win, which puts the following wheels in motion:

• Jarrett jumps up to #2
• TJ falls back to #3
• Kurt jumps up to #4
• Richie falls back to #5

Not to be forgotten, James does all he can and finishes with an 8-2 mark again Ben.  Tim does not waiver and tops him with an 8-1 mark over Adrian, protecting his place in the playoffs.  Kurt beats Alex 7-3 and wins the WWE belt.

Here are some other notes from the 2015 regular season:

• The top 6 teams did not change since week 16; the top 3 teams did not change since week 11.
• Colin captures his second-ever regular season crown.  His first was in 2004, when he won his only championship.
• Colin posts the 13th best record in league history, by wins and winning percentage.  It’s his second-best season ever (4 wins shy of his 2004 campaign).
• After missing the playoffs in a league-record 4 consecutive seasons, Jarrett has become the first franchise in league history to earn bye weeks in back to back seasons.
• Jarrett posts his second-best season in franchise history and finishes the regular season in second-place for a record third time.
• TJ finishes in 3rd place for the third time in franchise history; the others were in 2004 (finished in 5th) and 2013 (finished in 2nd).
• TJ started the season with a 9-1-2 weekly record; he finished with a 4-4-1 over his final 9 contests.
• TJ successfully defended the belt in 14 of his 16 Belt matches.  He earned $0 for this achievement.
• TJ won his 1400th category in the season finale.
• Kurt finishes in 4th for the third time in franchise history;  the others were in 2006 (finished in 5th) and 2011 (finished in 1st).
• Kurt’s 113 wins are the second-most for a 4h place team behind Alex’s 119 mark from 2013.
• After failing in his first two attempts, Kurt went 2-0 in the final two weeks and won his first ever WWE belt.
• Richie finishes in 5th place for the first time in franchise history.  
• Richie’s 112 wins and .539 winning percentage are league records for a 5th place team.
• Richie won his first ever WWE Belt at midseason.
• Tim becomes just the second non-founding manager to make the playoffs in his first season (Kyle Zapcic, the other manager, lost both playoff matches in his only season).
• Tim’s 106 wins are best all-time by a first year non-founding manager.
• Tim has moved past Zapcic for 12th on the all-time wins list.
• James finishes in 7th place and misses the post-season for the first time in 3 years.
• Staring at a 14 game deficit at the start of week 18, James went 33-12-5 over the final 5 weeks and shaved off 12 of those 14 games.  He missed the playoffs by 2 games.
• Alex finishes in 8th place and misses the post-season for the first time in five years.
• Alex’s 93 wins are the second-worst total in franchise history, ahead of his 82-win total in 2007.
• Ben finishes in 9th place and misses the post-season for the first time in seven seasons.
• Ben’s 89 wins is his lowest mark since 2003, when he won 80 games and finished in 10th.
• Ben became the first manager to 1400 career wins in week 19.
• Adrian finishes in 10th place and misses the post-season for a record-tying 4th consecutive season.
• Adrian’s 62-149-9, .302 record is the worst in league history by any measure.  This marks the second season in a row that the league has seen a team set record lows in wins and winning percentage, and a record high in losses.
• Adrian won only 2 weeks this season, both by a 5-4-1 score.  This is a record for fewest weekly wins in league history.

With an empty bladder, you find your seat in the movie theatre and strap in for the best part of the movie - the playoffs!!

The parity in this league is like no other.  We’ve crowned a first-time champion in nine of our thirteen postseasons, and Tim and Jarrett are both threats to make that ten out of fourteen.  We have a diverse post-season population in this year’s edition that displays almost every level of playoff experience, success, and failure.  We’ll take a look at each team’s playoff history and the road that lies before them in this mega blog.  

Obviously with Tim’s introduction to the league this will be the first time in league history that these six managers have made it to the playoffs in the same season.  If you take Tim out of the equation, this will be the second time these five managers have made it to the same post-season.  That was the 2008 season, which finished thusly:

Champion - (#2) Adrian

Runner-up - (#4) Richie

3rd - (#1) Kurt

4th - (#3) Colin

5th - (#5) TJ

6th - (#6) Jarrett

Oh how the mighty have fallen.  2008 remains the only time a #2 seed took home the title.

Overall, these six managers only hold five of the thirteen titles but they do have three of the last four (Kurt 2011, 2012, Richie 2014).

First, a little playoff history for the final 6:

#1 seed - Colin checks in with his 9th playoff appearance in franchise history and a 10-10 playoff record.  This is his 5th consecutive post-season, extending his career-best streak.  He won the title in 2004 but it’s been a rocky road in the 10 years since, posting a 6-9 record and no finals appearances.

#2 seed - Jarrett clinched his 6th playoff appearance this season but his 3-8 postseason record amounts to the worst playoff winning percentage in the league (min. 3 games, Kyle Zapcic went 0-2 in his only season).  It’s been a long road to hoe for Jarrett, who missed the playoffs for four consecutive seasons before last year’s appearance.  Jarrett has never made it to a league final.

#3 seed - TJ is making his 10th playoff appearance in franchise history - good for second-most in league history - but carries a disappointing 8-12 mark.  He has a career record of 2-5 in the first round of the playoffs. To his credit, all of these stats I’m spitting out at you do not include 2002, TJ’s only championship year.  Geers returns to the playoffs after a one year absence that snapped his league-record 7 straight playoff appearances.  A 2013 runner-up finish was his only finals appearance since the 2002 title.

#4 seed - Kurt qualifies for the DD postseason for a record 11th time and, as you may expect, has the most playoff wins (13) of any manager in league history.  He has a career record of 4-4 in the first round of the playoffs. This is his first playoff appearance since 2013, where he finished in 5th place.  Kurt is the only manager to win back to back Chalices and would be the first franchise to win a third championship, should he run the gauntlet.

#5 seed - Richie enters his 8th postseason this year and has a 9-8 record to show for it.  He has a career record of 3-2 in the first round of the playoffs. This is just the second time in his career that he’s made the playoffs in back to back seasons, the other instance spanning the 2003-04 campaigns.  Richie took home his first league title last year and would be just the second manager to win back to back Chalices.

#6 seed - Tim becomes just the second manager in the expansion era (2003-present) to make the playoffs in his first season; Kyle was the other (Chuck, Drew, Jarrett, Jason, and Paul all missed in their first seasons.)

And so goes the Ghosts of Playoffs past.  “But Richie, I just joined the league this year; I don’t care about all of this shit.”

Well Tim, fuckin’ asshole, here’s a look at the present and future:

Bye, Bye, Bye - Colin (#1) and Jarrett (#2)

#3 vs #6 - The Tussle of the Tim’s - Geers hosts McGrail in their first ever meeting in the playoffs.  In three regular season matches, TJ edged Tim 5-4 in week 1 and the other two matches ended in 5-5 ties.  Tim won big last week while TJ faltered, but if the two played eachother TJ would have coasted to a 6-2-2 victory.  

Both teams can bring the lumber and have put up some big numbers in recent weeks, but McGrail lost his #2 HR/RBI guy when it was announced Mark Teixeira would miss the rest of the season with a fractured shin.  

While the offenses slug it out, I think this one will be won on the mound.  Geers holds an enormous edge in season W and K totals which leads me to believe he will take those without a fight.  McGrail boasts the league’s best ERA and WHIP but those can be extremely volatile.  I don’t expect Tim’s closers to be able to hang with TJ’s elite options, giving TJ at least 3 wins on the bump, giving TJ the clear edge in this match up with the tie-breaker in hand.

Prediction:  TJ beats Tim 5-4-1

#4 vs #5 - Two Fuckin' Studs - Kurt and Richie square off for the 6th time in post-season history:

Year	Round	Result
2003	first round	Richie (4) def. Kurt (5) 8-2
2004	consolation	Richie (2) def. Kurt (5) 7-3
2006	dbl consolation	Kurt (4) def. Richie (6) 8-1
2008	semi-finals	Richie (4) def. Kurt (1) 6-4
2010	dbl consolation	Richie (3) def. Kurt (5) 5-4

Like the other playoff matchup, these teams have faced off three times this season.  Richie took the first two games, 6-4 and 7-3, but Kurt took the week 20 decision by a 6-4 mark.  Add in the Rumble finals and it squares the season series at two games apice.  

Kurt has looked especially sharp and finds himself in the midst of a 4 week winning streak, with the first three wins coming against playoff teams.  Richie closed the season with a 16-11-3 record despite dropping 2 of 3, all against playoff teams.

Offensively, Kurt and Richie are neck and neck.  They have almost identical R and AVG.  Kurt has more HR, Richie has more RBI, and they are tied in SB, though Dee Gordon is the only player on either roster who can win the category singlehandedly.  Both offenses are relatively healthy.

Kurt has the edge on the mound, with better marks in each of the 5 pitching categories.  Gottschalk gets a huge bump with a double start week from Cy Young hopeful Sonny Gray, while Richie’s trade-deadline acquisition of Johnny Cueto has been a monumental disaster.

Important to note that the Yahoo! stat correction gave Kurt the tiebreaker over Richie.

Prediction:  My bias doesn’t allow me to pick this one fairly; therefore I will state the obvious that the winner of this match will win the championship.