Tuesday, September 29, 2015

Finals preview!

And then there were two.

24 weeks of shit talking, spot starting, adds, drops, starting partial rosters, trades, luck, and a million other events have all led to the 2015 Diamond Dynasty finals.  For the first time in history we will see Kurt vs Jarrett for the Chalice for Fantasy Baseball Excellence.  Let's take another look at the contenders.

Jarrett (#2 seed) outlasted TJ in the semi-finals by a 5-5 mark.  As this blogger predicted (with eerie precision), Jarrett swept the 5 offensive categories and he held the tie breaker thanks to 9/11.  It's incredible how much that stat correction affected this post-season.

Jarrett is making his first finals appearance in his 14 year career; he was 0-3 in the semi-finals before last week.  He's the first #2 seed to make it to the finals since Alex in 2012, who lost to Kurt in the finals.  The #2 seed has not fared well in championship bouts, posting a 1-4 record.

On the other side, Kurt (#4 seed) beat the #1 seed Colin handily, flirting with the shutout en route to a 9-1 victory.  He's been hot as a pistol for some time now and rolls into the finals on a 6 week winning streak.  Add in the Neighborhood Rumble finals and he's taken down his last 7 opponents.

Kurt is a well-decorated playoff veteran with a perfect 2-0 record in championship matches.  He's the first #4 seed to make it to the finals since he did it in 2011 when he won the first of his back to back titles.  Overall, #4 seeds are 2-2 in the finals.

This will be the third time the league has seen a #2 seed play a #4 seed for the championship; each seed has a victory to it's number.  Alex (#4) beat James (#2) in 2005, and Adrian (#2) beat Richie (#4) in 2008.

This will only be the second-ever post-season meeting between the two.  Kurt (#5 seed) beat Jarrett (#3 seed) 6-4 in the 2007 consolation game.  But enough of this superfluous statistical breakdown.  Let's get to the match!

Jarrett's riding some hot bats into the finals.  He's got four batters in the top 17 over the last 14 days and that doesn't include Paul Goldschmidt who hit 3 bombs in last week's match.  Kurt saw huge contributions from unlikely candidates in last week's win over Colin;  Duda posted 5/3/12/.353 and Stephen Piscotty chipped in with 5/2/7/.333.  If Duda can give Kurt 80% of that effort and Kurt's mainstays can continue to perform he will be a difficult out.  Both offenses feature top end talent and depth.  Staaf and Gottschalk put up almost identical numbers last week:

TeamRHRRBISBAVG
Kurt45113650.284
Jarrett46124540.285

The pitching match up will be one to watch.  Jarrett is going full bore SP and has dropped Kevin Jepsen, Shawn Tolleson, and Aroldis Chapman.  This has to be the first time that a team in the championship game has loaded up on a strategy this aggressive.  It appears that Kurt has countered slightly, cutting ties with David Robertson.  Jarrett is still holding onto Betances for now, but I have to assume he's the next to hit FA.

Jarrett has the edge on the mound, if nothing else but for sheer projected innings.  Neither team had a SP yesterday and Jarrett is throwing out 6 to Kurt's 2 on Tuesday, including some guys named Kershaw and Bumgarner.  If he holds onto all those guys that's another 6 starters on the weekend.  It's hard to know what teams might do to set up their playoff rotations but at this point Jarrett might end up with twice as many starts as Kurt this week which will obviously have a strong impact on Wins and K's.  Last week's pitching numbers between the two managers were tight as well:

TeamWSVKERAWHIP
Kurt69813.551.26
Jarrett82783.711.30

Put it all together and last week's numbers would have given Jarrett the title on a (stop me if you've heard this before) 5-5 tie-breaker.  Obviously things may have unfolded differently from a strategy standpoint, but it just goes to show how even these teams are.

So who takes it home?  Do we have our 11th first-time Diamond Dynasty champion in 15 seasons, or do we see the league's first 3-time champion?

Either way, History Will Be Made on Sunday night.

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