2016 Schedule

As explained in the commissioner note, the schedule needs to be re-done.  Here is how I'm doing it:



Step 1:  Copy last year's schedule

Step 2:  Replace teams with numbers 1-10 (ex. Richie=1, Ben=2, etc)

Step 3:  Pull names out of a hat and attach them to the numbers.  The results:

  1=Alex
  2=Colin
  3=Kurt
  4=Richie
  5=Tim
  6=Jarrett
  7=TJ
  8=Adrian
  9=James
10=Ben

2016 Story Lines

Adrian’s franchise enters 2016 in a complete tailspin.  Of the 132 teams in the 14 year history of this league, his 2015 effort stands alone as the worst by any measure.  On the whole, he missed the playoffs for the fourth consecutive year and sixth of the last seven, both records.  He did well to revamp his keeper options but they are still average (by pre-season rank), and he comes into Sunday with a below-average draft board.  2016 looks like another uphill battle for the once great franchise.

Alex saw his streak of three consecutive playoff appearances snapped last season but orchestrated possibly the finest tank job we’ve seen.  He enters 2016 with the strongest draft board, the third best core keepers, and a top prospect last pick flex.  He’s the odds on favorite to win the regular season and could challenge Ben’s 144-win record set in 2005 - Alex’s only championship season.  This season, it’s finals or bust.

Ben missed the playoffs in 2016 for the first time in six seasons, falling one season shy of tying the record shared by Kurt and TJ.  His commanding lead in career victories was cut down significantly and now leads TJ by 7 wins for most all time.  He returns this season with average projected keepers but a draft board second to only Alex thanks to his activity on the trade block last season.  He has to like his chances entering the DD’s 15th year.

Colin had a solid 2015 season, capturing his first #1 seed since 2004.  Unfortunately for Colin, the similarities stopped there.  He lost both of his matches en route to a fourth place finish and continues to search for championship #2.  The playoff appearance was his fifth straight and seventh in the last eight seasons, both impressive marks.  And judging by the peripherals he’s pointed towards another playoff run.  He enters 2016 with the strongest Core Keepers and a potential star as a flex (Schwarber, last pick).  He somehow also bolstered his draft board, posting the third highest average draft pick.  Colin has the pieces in place to challenge for a bye in 2016.

James stormed back at the end of last season but it was too little too late.  He ended up missing the playoffs despite posting a .500 record, the fifth-best record for a non-playoff team in league history.  James’s first eight seasons yielded five playoff births, a 9-3 post-season record, and two championships; his last five seasons, just two playoff births and a 1-3 post-season record.  He enters 2016 with the worst ranked Core Keepers and a below average draft board, but he has the most attractive flex (Carlos Correa) and the best possible price (last pick).  James projects to be in the 5-6-7-8 clusterfuck for the playoff push.

Jarrett used 2014’s momentum to catapult him to a 2015 title, the first in franchise history.  Since week 9, 2014 - a 36 week stretch - Jarrett has a .618 winning percentage.  That would stand as the third best winning percentage ever, and he’s done it for nearly two full seasons.  Jarrett was the only team not to make a trade so his draft board is perfectly average.  His keepers, on the other hand, are anything but.  Kershaw and Goldschmidt headline the league’s second best set of Core Keepers, and some guy named Jose Fernandez as his flex which pushes his average keeper rank to #1.  The new bully on the block is the only person to earn byes in back to back seasons and shoots for his third straight in 2016.

Kurt returned to the playoffs last year after a one year absence and made serious noise, making it all the way to the finals.  He enters 2016 with a strong set of Core Keepers and a solid flex option.  

His draft board is on the weaker side, but so was Jarrett’s last season and we all saw how that turned out.  The only franchise to never tank, Kurt will very likely be in the mix in 2016.

Richie made it to the playoffs in back to back years for the first time since 03-04, but lost on a tiebreaker in the first round.  His keepers are slightly below average and he is dead last with a #174 average draft pick (which is actually better than the #181 average draft pick he had last year).  All in all, Richie will need good health and bit of luck to make franchise history with his third consecutive playoff appearance.

TJ returned to the post-season in 2015 after snapping a seven-season streak and came away with third place.  His 119 wins was tied for his third best regular season record ever and he now stands just 7 wins behind Ben for most wins in DD history.  Entering with average keepers but the second worst draft board, TJ will need to draft well to field a playoff-worthy team in 2016.

Tim set the record for most wins by an expansion manager in their first year, and became just the second expansion manager to lead a team to the playoffs in his first year at the helm.  But the kid gloves come off this time around.  With below average keepers and a slightly above average draft board (and no bonus first round picks “just because”), Tim needs to take all he’s learned in his rookie season to avoid a sophomore slump.  He’ll need a strong showing on draft day.

Opening Post 2016

Welcome back!  I will not be writing to a schedule this year, just randomly popping in.  As always, I encourage others to jump in as it will make the league more enjoyable.  And as always, I foresee little enthusiasm for this request.

Here's how 2016 is shaping up:

Name

Adrian

Alex

Ben

Colin

James

Jarrett

Kurt

Richie

Tim

TJ

Adrian edges out Alex in the name department with a "tie-breaker" of sorts, as we had to actually go to the second letter to determine who was first place.  Nice job Adrian.  Conversely, TJ sits in the basement thanks to his nickname.  If he just would have dropped the Jr, he could have at least tied for last.  Questionable managerial decisions there.

Core 4 projections (based on Yahoo Preseason rank)

	Core 4
Colin	11
Jarrett	12
Alex	18
Kurt	24
TJ	25
Ben	26
Richie	27
Adrian	32
Tim	34
James	53

Colin edges out Jarrett in average Core 4 preseason ranks, highlighted by the usual suspects.  Jarrett and Alex join him in the top tier, and everyone except James basically falls into tier #2.  

Core 4 projections with Flex (based on Yahoo Preseason rank)

	Core 4	w Flx
Jarrett	12	16
Colin	11	18
Kurt	24	30
TJ	25	32
Tim	34	34
Alex	18	35
Richie	27	41
James	53	44
Ben	26	47
Adrian	32	51

When adding the flex picks, Jarrett's average preseason rank jumps to #1 thanks to Jose Fernandez.  Colin stays close behind with Cubs sensation Kyle Schwarber, and the rest of the league is pretty evenly spread out from there.  Interestingly enough, James is the only team to experience an increase in average preseason rank with the addition of his flex keeper, an effect of having both the lowest average core keeper rank and flexing stud-to-be Carlos Correa, who has the highest preseason rank for all flex-eligible players.  

Flex pick

	Core 4	w Flx	Flx Pk
TJ	25	32	88
Jarrett	12	16	90
Tim	34	34	100
Kurt	24	30	129
Richie	27	41	255
Colin	11	18	LAST
Alex	18	35	LAST
Ben	26	47	LAST
Adrian	32	51	LAST
James	53	44	LAST

Half of the league maxed out the Flex keeper option with 5 managers sacrificing a last round pick, and Richie was nearly there.  TJ's flex was the most expensive, giving up his 9th round pick (88th overall) for Carlos Carrasco.  He only owed his 10th round pick but no longer owns it.  

Average Draft Pick

	Core 4	w Flx	Flx Pk	Avg Pk
Alex	18	35	LAST	114
Ben	26	47	LAST	121
Colin	11	18	LAST	145
Tim	34	34	100	150
Jarrett	12	16	90	151
Adrian	32	51	LAST	159
James	53	44	LAST	162
Kurt	24	30	129	163
TJ	25	32	88	168
Richie	27	41	255	174

And finally, Alex leads the pack with draft picks.  Ben is the only one who comes close, with two picks in the first round and picks #96, #99, #102, and #104.  On the other end of the spectrum, Richie will not make a pick until 34 picks are off the board - the longest stretch of anyone this year.

But it's not all doom and gloom - far from it.  Here's what last year looked like:

1. Ben - 16 points

2. Colin - 15 points

3. Tim - 14 points

4. James - 11 points

4. Kurt - 11 points

4. TJ - 11 points

7, Jarrett - 10 points

8. Alex - 8 points

9. Richie - 7 points

10. Adrian - 5 points

Statistically, Ben looked to have the most promising mix of average draft position and keepers but missed the playoffs entirely.  Last year's champion projected to miss the playoffs.  And Adrian....well we all knew he was going to be bad (sorry Adrian).

This season, Alex has a top-tier core four, a last round flex, and the best draft board.  I think we can all agree that anything less than breaking Ben's 144-win record is a failure for Alex.  Oh by the way, remember last year when we all thought TJ was a lock to make the playoffs?  

TJ
41	Jacoby Elsbury
42	Yu Darwish

Stay frosty big guy.

2015 Season Recap

Well boys, another season in the books.  For the second year in a row, and 11th in the last 15th, we crown a first-time champion.  

Remember when…

...I put out the fake bovada odds at the beginning of the season?  

...we moved the draft to the last weekend in February so we could all make it except TJ couldn’t?

...we bumped up surveymonkey’s traffic for a couple weeks with all those surveys?

...TJ beat Tim 5-4 in week 1, which put him in 4th place, which was the only time all season he was lower than 3rd place?

...Tim beat Alex for his first ever Diamond Dynasty victory?

...Ben got engaged?

...Adrian was in third place after week 3 and never made it back into the top 6?

...James posted the following on the blog:

So I'm not just doing these weekly matchups coincidentally the week I happen to be in first place for the first time since 2012, thanks to Richie's commish note, but simply because I just did one in my other league and I was bored at work and realized we needed some more blog fun

and then never posted another weekly matchup preview for the rest of the season?

...Tim failed to meet the IP minimum in week 4?

...Kurt gave us our career matchups?

...Kurt gave us our shutout standings?

...Alex, TJ, and Kurt cracked the 1,300 win club, which every manager except for Adrian is now a part of?

...we held the first ever DD golf outing?

....Adrian 2.0 got fired?

...Colin shutout James in week 6, tapping the shutout pool incentive and sending James spiraling on an out-of-control 5 week losing streak where he went 10-39-1 and fell from 1st place to 9th place?

...Colin got engaged?

...I came up with a method to calculate our luck that’s probably highly inaccurate?

...Jarrett was the first to 1,300 career losses, which every manager except Ben and Kurt are now a part of?

...Kurt tried to jinx Richie with a faux-complimentary blog post, only to lose to him 7-3?

...Colin won the HR Derby challenge?

...Richie won his first WWE belt in mid-sesaon?

...the Neighborhood rumble kicked off with Kurt vs Adrian and James vs Ben for the play-ins?

...Jarrett didn’t start a catcher for 4 weeks?

...Tim passed Paul French for 14th on the all-time wins list?

...Richie shutout Adrian?

...the league saw 14 trade-deadline deals, doubling last year’s mark which was a record of it’s own?

...quantity beat quality?

...we finally got to Fenway?

...Kurt won the first ever Neighborhood Rumble?

...James was 14 games behind the #6 seed with 5 weeks to go, posted a 33-12-5 record over the last 5 weeks of the season, and missed the playoffs by just 2 games?

...Aroldis Chapman’s stat correction reverted Richie’s 10-0 shutout over Jarrett to an 8-0 shutout, which gave bumped Richie down to the #5 seed and Jarrett up to the #2 seed, which gave Jarrett and Kurt playoff tie-breakers that they both needed in their first rounds to advance?

...Jarrett became the first team ever to earn playoff bye weeks in consecutive seasons?

...Kurt won the WWE belt?

...Tim popped his postseason cherry?

...The #5 seed continued to be the worst seed in the playoffs with a first round exit, dropping that seed’s record to 4-9 in the first round?

...The #1 seed didn’t win the title for the first time since 2011?

...Jarrett won his first ever Diamond Dynasy Chalice?

Finals preview!

And then there were two.

24 weeks of shit talking, spot starting, adds, drops, starting partial rosters, trades, luck, and a million other events have all led to the 2015 Diamond Dynasty finals.  For the first time in history we will see Kurt vs Jarrett for the Chalice for Fantasy Baseball Excellence.  Let's take another look at the contenders.

Jarrett (#2 seed) outlasted TJ in the semi-finals by a 5-5 mark.  As this blogger predicted (with eerie precision), Jarrett swept the 5 offensive categories and he held the tie breaker thanks to 9/11.  It's incredible how much that stat correction affected this post-season.

Jarrett is making his first finals appearance in his 14 year career; he was 0-3 in the semi-finals before last week.  He's the first #2 seed to make it to the finals since Alex in 2012, who lost to Kurt in the finals.  The #2 seed has not fared well in championship bouts, posting a 1-4 record.

On the other side, Kurt (#4 seed) beat the #1 seed Colin handily, flirting with the shutout en route to a 9-1 victory.  He's been hot as a pistol for some time now and rolls into the finals on a 6 week winning streak.  Add in the Neighborhood Rumble finals and he's taken down his last 7 opponents.

Kurt is a well-decorated playoff veteran with a perfect 2-0 record in championship matches.  He's the first #4 seed to make it to the finals since he did it in 2011 when he won the first of his back to back titles.  Overall, #4 seeds are 2-2 in the finals.

This will be the third time the league has seen a #2 seed play a #4 seed for the championship; each seed has a victory to it's number.  Alex (#4) beat James (#2) in 2005, and Adrian (#2) beat Richie (#4) in 2008.

This will only be the second-ever post-season meeting between the two.  Kurt (#5 seed) beat Jarrett (#3 seed) 6-4 in the 2007 consolation game.  But enough of this superfluous statistical breakdown.  Let's get to the match!

Jarrett's riding some hot bats into the finals.  He's got four batters in the top 17 over the last 14 days and that doesn't include Paul Goldschmidt who hit 3 bombs in last week's match.  Kurt saw huge contributions from unlikely candidates in last week's win over Colin;  Duda posted 5/3/12/.353 and Stephen Piscotty chipped in with 5/2/7/.333.  If Duda can give Kurt 80% of that effort and Kurt's mainstays can continue to perform he will be a difficult out.  Both offenses feature top end talent and depth.  Staaf and Gottschalk put up almost identical numbers last week:

Team	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
Kurt	45	11	36	5	0.284
Jarrett	46	12	45	4	0.285

The pitching match up will be one to watch.  Jarrett is going full bore SP and has dropped Kevin Jepsen, Shawn Tolleson, and Aroldis Chapman.  This has to be the first time that a team in the championship game has loaded up on a strategy this aggressive.  It appears that Kurt has countered slightly, cutting ties with David Robertson.  Jarrett is still holding onto Betances for now, but I have to assume he's the next to hit FA.

Jarrett has the edge on the mound, if nothing else but for sheer projected innings.  Neither team had a SP yesterday and Jarrett is throwing out 6 to Kurt's 2 on Tuesday, including some guys named Kershaw and Bumgarner.  If he holds onto all those guys that's another 6 starters on the weekend.  It's hard to know what teams might do to set up their playoff rotations but at this point Jarrett might end up with twice as many starts as Kurt this week which will obviously have a strong impact on Wins and K's.  Last week's pitching numbers between the two managers were tight as well:

Team	W	SV	K	ERA	WHIP
Kurt	6	9	81	3.55	1.26
Jarrett	8	2	78	3.71	1.30

Put it all together and last week's numbers would have given Jarrett the title on a (stop me if you've heard this before) 5-5 tie-breaker.  Obviously things may have unfolded differently from a strategy standpoint, but it just goes to show how even these teams are.

So who takes it home?  Do we have our 11th first-time Diamond Dynasty champion in 15 seasons, or do we see the league's first 3-time champion?

Either way, History Will Be Made on Sunday night.

Week 24: Semi-finals

Ever since that fateful day, September 11th, I was prepared to do some revisionist history and see what would have happened without the stat correction to end all stat corrections.  And the results?  Huge mother flippin' shifts in the 2015 playoffs.  I will never forget this year for like 2 weeks.

After crunching the numbers in the non-stat corrected world, Richie would have advanced to face Colin in the semi-finals thanks to his tie breaker over Kurt and Jarrett would have lost to Tim to set up a Tim-TJ match on the other side of the bracket.  

"But Richie, I would have made completely different moves if I had a scoreboard to watch."  

I know Jarrett, but you probably would have spent your moves on probable pitchers meaning you still would have lost the offensive categories 3-2.  Your WHIP was unsalvageable (1.48 to Tim's 1.26).  That gives Tim 4 categories.  You tied saves and that wouldn't have changed.  So it comes down to K, ERA, and W.  You tied in Wins and were down 13 in K.  You likely would have won Wins by spot starting, but K's was not a guarantee.  And who knows, with all those spot starts, your 0.22 lead in ERA could have flipped the entire match to a 5-4-1 deficit to the rookie.  So Tim, welcome to the Diamond Dynasty.  Your asshole has been appropriately re-sized by Yahoo!  Any way you slice it, the match ups came down to razor thin margins and it's a shame someone had to lose.  Especially because I was one of them.

Deep breaths, Richie, deep breaths.  You have a blog to write and hundreds dozens tens three fans looking forward to your work.

Jarrett (#2) vs TJ (#3)

TJ and Jarrett don't have much playoff history; this is only the fourth post-season that they've both made it, and the first time since 2009.  Yahoo! records indicate just one post-season showdown between the two managers, a double consolation game in 2008 which TJ won.

The offenses are pretty even, falling within the same general totals across the board.  But TJ's bats were offensively bad last week and they seem to be slumping at a bad time.  As of Tuesday night, Jarrett has 5 hitters in the top 39 over the last 7 days.  With the tie-breaker in hand, Jarrett's bats have an outside shot to make the pitching categories obsolete.

As with last week, TJ has the edge on the mound by a good margin.  A two-start week from Arrieta might be the difference, but with the Mets jerking around Matt Harvey it's hard to say that TJ can do enough damage from the mound.  With Jarrett only needing 5 categories to advance, I think this is the season he breaks through for his first finals appearance. 

Colin (#1) vs Kurt (#4)

Kurt and Colin have a much deeper playoff history and are embarking on their 6th September Standoff, most of them meaningful.

Year	Round	Result
2004	semi-finals	Colin (1) def. Kurt (5) 5-5
2008	consolation	Kurt (1) def. Colin (3) 6-3
2011	quarter-finals	Kurt (4) def. Colin (5) 6-4
2012	semi-finals	Kurt (1) def. Colin (5) 5-5
2013	dbl consolation	Kurt (6) def. Colin (5) 7-3

Kurt has had Colin's number in recent years but this is the first time Colin is coming into the semi-finals with the stronger team since 2004.

Offensively, it's hard to cram any more stars into these lineups than there already are.  Trout vs Harper.  Altuve vs Gordon.  Cabrera vs Donaldson.  Braun vs CarGo.  These teams boast elite level talent at multiple positions and each of them are capable of winning categories nearly by themselves.  Trout is starting to turn the corner after a slow August but Harper has been on an absolute tear, ranked first overall in the last 7, 14, and 30 days.  He must have slumped prior to that as he is only ranked second overall for the season.  Hard to imagine either of these teams dominating on this side of the ball.

Colin has an edge defensively based on the season totals.  He trails slightly in wins and WHIP but has big leads in saves and K's.  Kurt gets to throw Kuechel out there twice but Colin counters with a Chris Archer double feature.  It looks like Colin's guys have been a little sharper recently and based on his season totals I'd lean toward Colin nabbing at least 2 of the pitching categories at minimum.

My scorned heart hopes for Colin to win this thing.  Colin's got a wedding coming up and the guy needs this check.  But I said that the winner of the Kurt-Richie matchup would take it all, and I'm a man of my word.  Kurt wins, 2-1-7, setting up a first-ever Kurt-Jarrett finals.  

The legend of the stat correction grows.  

9/11.  Never Forget.