Monday, March 7, 2016

Opening Post 2016

Welcome back!  I will not be writing to a schedule this year, just randomly popping in.  As always, I encourage others to jump in as it will make the league more enjoyable.  And as always, I foresee little enthusiasm for this request.

Here's how 2016 is shaping up:

Name

Adrian
Alex
Ben
Colin
James
Jarrett
Kurt
Richie
Tim
TJ

Adrian edges out Alex in the name department with a "tie-breaker" of sorts, as we had to actually go to the second letter to determine who was first place.  Nice job Adrian.  Conversely, TJ sits in the basement thanks to his nickname.  If he just would have dropped the Jr, he could have at least tied for last.  Questionable managerial decisions there.

Core 4 projections (based on Yahoo Preseason rank)

Core 4
Colin11
Jarrett12
Alex18
Kurt24
TJ25
Ben26
Richie27
Adrian32
Tim34
James53
Colin edges out Jarrett in average Core 4 preseason ranks, highlighted by the usual suspects.  Jarrett and Alex join him in the top tier, and everyone except James basically falls into tier #2.  

Core 4 projections with Flex (based on Yahoo Preseason rank)

Core 4w Flx
Jarrett1216
Colin1118
Kurt2430
TJ2532
Tim3434
Alex1835
Richie2741
James5344
Ben2647
Adrian3251

When adding the flex picks, Jarrett's average preseason rank jumps to #1 thanks to Jose Fernandez.  Colin stays close behind with Cubs sensation Kyle Schwarber, and the rest of the league is pretty evenly spread out from there.  Interestingly enough, James is the only team to experience an increase in average preseason rank with the addition of his flex keeper, an effect of having both the lowest average core keeper rank and flexing stud-to-be Carlos Correa, who has the highest preseason rank for all flex-eligible players.  

Flex pick

Core 4w FlxFlx Pk
TJ253288
Jarrett121690
Tim3434100
Kurt2430129
Richie2741255
Colin1118LAST
Alex1835LAST
Ben2647LAST
Adrian3251LAST
James5344LAST

Half of the league maxed out the Flex keeper option with 5 managers sacrificing a last round pick, and Richie was nearly there.  TJ's flex was the most expensive, giving up his 9th round pick (88th overall) for Carlos Carrasco.  He only owed his 10th round pick but no longer owns it.  

Average Draft Pick

Core 4w FlxFlx PkAvg Pk
Alex1835LAST114
Ben2647LAST121
Colin1118LAST145
Tim3434100150
Jarrett121690151
Adrian3251LAST159
James5344LAST162
Kurt2430129163
TJ253288168
Richie2741255174

And finally, Alex leads the pack with draft picks.  Ben is the only one who comes close, with two picks in the first round and picks #96, #99, #102, and #104.  On the other end of the spectrum, Richie will not make a pick until 34 picks are off the board - the longest stretch of anyone this year.

But it's not all doom and gloom - far from it.  Here's what last year looked like:

1. Ben - 16 points
2. Colin - 15 points
3. Tim - 14 points
4. James - 11 points
4. Kurt - 11 points
4. TJ - 11 points
7, Jarrett - 10 points
8. Alex - 8 points
9. Richie - 7 points
10. Adrian - 5 points
Statistically, Ben looked to have the most promising mix of average draft position and keepers but missed the playoffs entirely.  Last year's champion projected to miss the playoffs.  And Adrian....well we all knew he was going to be bad (sorry Adrian).

This season, Alex has a top-tier core four, a last round flex, and the best draft board.  I think we can all agree that anything less than breaking Ben's 144-win record is a failure for Alex.  Oh by the way, remember last year when we all thought TJ was a lock to make the playoffs?  

TJ
41 Jacoby Elsbury
42Yu Darwish 

Stay frosty big guy.








No comments:

Post a Comment