Playoff Central: Semifinal Recap and Finals Preview!

TJ said it best in the chat; “Another year, another playoff heartbreak Sunday.”  This year’s post-season seems to be especially painful with each of the four playoff match ups thus far coming down to the final day (and some to the final at bat).  Heading into Sunday Night Baseball, a number of players held the balance of either match up in their hands.

Heading into Sunday’s slate, TJ and Alex were tied 4-4 (I think) with RBI and Saves tied.  After averaging 7 RBI/day for a number of weeks, TJ posted one measly RBI and went on to lose that category.  Alex’s Blake Treinen closed the door on the Phillies Sunday afternoon which gave Gentilli a 6-4 advantage heading into the night game, LAD @ WSH.  TJ needed a save from Jansen and 3 RBI from Daniel Murphy to pull back even, activating his tie breaker.  He got neither, and Alex punched his ticket to the finals. 

Richie began Sunday with a 5-3 lead over Jarrett with 8/10 categories undecided.  Here’s what my Sunday looked like from about 5:00 pm to 11:30 pm and yes, it’s rant-y:

Jarrett has Wade Davis and we were tied in saves, so I tuned into the Cubs game.  As the Cubs pushed across a run in the 7^th to break a 3-3 tie, the Cubs announcers wondered if Wade Davis would be available to pitch for a third day in a row, which was a very cruel ruse.  Of course he came out for the save.  To make matters worse, the final out not just a warning track fly ball but a “WadeDavis Dropped to His Knees Because He Thought He Blew The Save” fly ball.  About an hour later, the San Francisco Giants expanded their lead to 7-2 and blocked a save chance for my Sam Dyson, cementing the category for Jarrett and giving him a 4-3 lead.  As Stephen Strasburg delivered the first pitch of the final game of the week all five offensive categories were up for grabs.  HR, R, and SB were tied, Jarrett had slim leads in AVG (.004) and RBI (2) and started Trea Turner against my Chris Taylor.  Here’s Taylor’s second atbat, special fuck you to Jayson Werth.  Fucking spell your name right dickface.  In the top of the ninth, Taylor was due up fifth.  The Nats bring in their closer up 7-1, fuck you too Dusty.  The inning goes strike out, single, walk (!!!), slow ground ball to first base.  They don’t go for the double play.  Chris Taylor steps up to the plate with 2 outs in the top of the ninth.  A single would swing 2 categories, a HR would swing 4 – that’s how close this was. 

Mighty Chris Taylor popped out. 

But onto the Finals!  Congratulations to Jarrett and Alex who are battling for the Chalice.  Here’s some historical context:

We know Jarrett’s story by now.  He’s gunning for his third straight chalice, which would be a Diamond Dynasty first in both total titles and consecutive titles.  His victory over Richie was his sixth straight playoff victory – that’s a new record. 

Alex makes his first finals appearance since 2012 where he lost to Kurt.  This is Alex’s fifth finals appearance which is second only to Ben’s six.  Alex is 1-3 all time with the Chalice on the line.

Jarrett and Alex have played in the post season twice (2006 consolation, 2016 semi-finals) and Jarrett has won both.

3 seeds (Jarrett) are 3-1 in finals appearances.

5 seeds (Alex) have never made it to the finals.

This is the fourth finals in league history that does not feature a team who earned a bye week.  The others were in 2005, 2009, and 2011.

Both guys are throwing out double digit projected SP’s so the counting stats will be sky high.  It’s just going to come down to who has a hot week.  Jarrett’s tie breaker looms large, but as I’m releasing this write up a day late, Alex had a fantastic offensive Monday which has given him a strong early lead.  Should be another exciting final!

Playoff Central: Quarterfinal Recap & Semifinal Preview

While TJ and Richie kicked their feet up and enjoyed their bye weeks, competition was at an all-time high in the quarterfinal round as both matches were still undecided late into Sunday.  Facing a 5-4 deficit and only needing a 5-5 tie to advance, (4) Colin needed a save from Blake Parker to break a 2-2 tie in the Saves category.  That dream went up in smoke when Parker came out in the 8th inning to protect a 5-3 lead, effectively ending Colin’s season.  It stings a little more when you find out that Parker’s blown save on Monday – ironically a save that would have given Colin the edge he needed – likely caused Mike Sciocia to look elsewhere for the team’s next save opportunity, which happened to be on Sunday.  It’s another disappointing end to the season for Colin, who’s now gone 13 seasons without a championship.

For his efforts, Alex is awarded a date with TJ who finished with the 3rd best regular season in league history.  While the malnourished Asian woman finished on a low note (1-2, 7-16-7 to finish the season) he still fields an imposing team headlined by young sluggers Rhys Hoskins (#1 last 30 days) and Aaron Judge (#38 last 7 days), who (gulp) has appeared to find himself in the last week or two.  We get a great showdown between the first half MVP (Judge) and second half MVP, Giancarlo Stanton.  Either of these guys can win a week for a team and while Judge is going a little better right now, Stanton still has a legit shot at 60 HR and will be trying his damnedest to get there.

Another good “head to head” match will be Alex’s Strasburg vs TJ’s Robbie Ray, who are both ranked in the top 10 over the last 7, 14, and 30 days.  Michael Wacha was brilliant for Alex last week, netting 2 wins and 13 K’s with low ratios.  TJ has the better closers by name, but save chances are a fickle friend (just ask Colin).  Both teams enter the semi-finals remarkably healthy.  Overall, TJ’s offense is clicking on all cylinders (14 HR during last week’s bye) and with the tie-breaker in hand, he’s the favorite to advance to the finals here.

Jarrett’s match with Tim came down to Sunday Night Baseball.  Trevor Bauer, the seventh SP of the day between these two, swung K, ERA, and WHIP for Jarrett.  Tim nearly pulled the upset on the back of Francisco Lindor’s great game but it wasn’t enough.  Jarrett avoided the irony of ironies (he traded Lindor to Tim in the offseason) and advanced 5-4.

Jarrett now sets his sights on Richie, who finished a comfortable 11 games ahead of Jarrett in the regular season.  Richie went 10-1 over the final 11 weeks in the regular season.  His only loss in that stretch came against – yep, you guessed it – Jarrett.  Jarrett has owned Richie in 2017 thus far, beating him in both matches by a combined 12-7 margin.  Richie’s offense was a force in the regular season winning at a 69.5% clip, but they’ve cooled off lately (three players in the top 200 ranked).  The loss of Miguel Sano compounded with Eduardo Nunez’s DTD status leaves him with an iffy 3B situation.  Jarrett’s offense is faring better of late and he has three guys ranked 36th or better over the last 7 days, but he’s also recently lost Michael Conforto for the season after he made the unnatural baseball motion of swinging a bat.  Seriously, if you haven’t seen it, it’s the most Mets thing ever.  Jarrett managed to advance last week despite his cornerstone 1B Paul Goldschmidt missing substantial time, but he’s back now and appears to be 100% healthy (HR on Sunday) which is just fucking awesome news.

Clayton Kershaw is also back for the two time defending champion and could potentially get a two start week if the Dodgers want to keep him on a regular schedule (please Dodgers, don’t do this).  But truthfully, all of Jarrett’s pitchers have been struggling recently.  Bumgardner and Keuchel have ERA’s above 5 over the last two weeks and Dellin Betances is back to a setup role in New York.  Richie’s Staaf has been sharper with as SP’s Corey Kluber (projected 2 start week), Luke Weaver, and Luis Severino all sitting in the top 35 ranked players over the last 30 days.  In the bullpens, Richie has the quantity, Jarrett has the quality.  Regardless who wins, think about this: after combining for 0 titles from 2002-2013, there is a 50-50 shot that the last four titles will belong to them.

Playoff History:

Alex is 2-0 against TJ (6-4 in the 2005 quarterfinals, 5-4 in the 2010 consolation game)
Richie and Jarrett have never faced each other in the playoffs.

Playoff Probabilities

This is a re-post of last year's blog with updated numbers.

Congratulations!  You made it to the playoffs.  It was a long hard road filled with adversity and struggle, but you drafted and managed your way into a chance at the Chalice.  As we all know, the Head to Head matchup style can be cruel and unforgiving.  In 2005, Ben put on the greatest display of managing in league history.  His 144 wins and .666 winning percentage still stand as the greatest display of prolonged dominance this league has seen.  And despite finishing 34.5 games ahead of his first round opponent, he went 0-2 in the playoffs and didn't even cash.  It may not be fair, but god damn it it’s exciting.  As you would expect, Ben’s experience is not typical.  In the 14 years of Yahoo! documented league history…….

The #1 seed (TJ) has gone on to win the Chalice six times (Adrian ‘03, Colin ‘04, James ‘07, Kurt ‘12, Ben ‘13, Richie '14). They've lost in the finals twice (Adrian ‘06, Ben ‘10). The eight finals appearances are the most from any playoff seed. With the most championships coming from this position, you could argue that the #1 seed has had the most success. But an argument could be made for…

The #2 seed (RICHIE), which has finished in at least third place (i.e. money back) in seven of the last eight seasons.  While it can't match the finals success of the #1 seed (#2 seeds are 2-4 in championship games), it holds a dominating 6-2 record in the consolation game (winners are Richie ‘04, Jarrett ‘06, Colin ‘09, Alex ‘10, TJ ‘11, James ‘13).  Overall, more than 80% of the teams that earned a bye have finished in the money, which is a figure that declines sharply once you hit…

The #3 seed (JARRETT), where 50% have cashed. #3 seeds are the only seed aside from the #1 seed with a winning record in the title game, winning three of their four appearances (Ben ‘06, Drew ’09, Jarrett ‘16). The numbers diminish again when you sink to…

The #4 seed (COLIN), who has finished in the money 43% of the time.  This seed represents the most non-bye championship appearances (five); two winners (Alex ‘05, Kurt ‘11) and three losers (Richie ‘08, James ‘09, Kurt '15).  #4 seeds have not fared well in the consolation game capturing just one win (Colin '14) against four losses (Richie ‘03, TJ ‘10, Alex ’13, James ‘16).  Add it all up and the #4 seed is 3-7 in money games. The seed you must avoid at all costs is…………..

The #5 seed (ALEX), who’s 7% cash rate makes it by far and away the least lucrative playoff seed in history.  With zero trips to the finals and one third place finish (Kurt ‘07), there’s no doubt this is the cement-shoe seed.  #5 seeds are 4-10 in the first round of the playoffs and 1-8 in their last nine, meaning more than two-thirds of their seasons end in the dreaded, pointless double consolation game. It’s amazing how much better it’s been to be…………..

The #6 seed (TIM), who’s one championship (James ‘10) and 36% cash rate is far more attractive.  Sure, they've taken their lumps; they've come in last more than any other seed (57%), but with three second-place finishes (Alex ‘04, Ben ‘11, Ben '14) and a cash back third (Colin '03), it’s not all that bad.  Plus, you’re automatically the Cinderella story that everyone roots for.  Sot you got that goin’ for you, which is nice.  But of course if you can’t read, there’s always this:

	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	$$$	Share
1 Seed	43%	21%	7%	29%	NA	NA	71%	33%
2 Seed	14%	29%	50%	7%	NA	NA	93%	22%
3 Seed	21%	7%	21%	14%	29%	7%	50%	17%
4 Seed	14%	21%	7%	29%	21%	7%	43%	16%
5 Seed	0%	0%	7%	21%	43%	29%	7%	1%
6 Seed	7%	21%	7%	0%	7%	57%	36%	11%

Playoff Personalities

And now it’s time to meet your 2017 Playoff Managers!

#1 TJ Geers:  TJ locks down the #1 seed for the second time in history (2009, 3^rd place finish) and secures his third bye (2009, 2011).  He makes the playoffs for the 12^th time since 2003 – a Diamond Dynasty best – but his playoff resume leaves much to be desired.  After winning the inaugural title in 2002, TJ has only made one return trip to the finals where he lost to Kurt in 2013.  His 9-16 playoff record is the lowest winning percentage in league history (min. 3 games played) but Geers has high hopes for a 2017 Chalice run coming off of the greatest regular season in his long-tenured DD history.

#2 Richie Travers:  Richie grabs the #2 seed for the second time in history (2004, 3^rd place finish) and secures his third bye (2004, 2014).  He makes the playoffs for the 10^th time and fourth consecutive season, but has had mixed success in recent years.  After winning the Chalice in 2014 he’s suffered first round exits in both 2015 and 2016.  With a career playoff record of 11-10 and his third-best regular season team at hand (10-1 in his last 11 weeks), Richie is well-positioned for a run at his second Chalice (jinxing powers, ACTIVATE!)

#3 Jarrett Staff:  The man who no longer needs an introduction.  After missing the playoffs four years straight from 2010-2013, Jarrett has finished the regular season as a top 3 team in four consecutive years.  Furthermore, he is undefeated in the last two years in five playoffs match ups and thus, is the two-time defending champion.  It feels like we should just throw any pre-2014 numbers out of the window as they’re so drastically different:

2003-2013: .482 regular season winning percentage, 3-6 post-season record, 0 titles

2014-2017:  .552 regular season winning percentage, 5-2 post-season record, 2 titles

#4 Colin Lancey:  This proud black man nabs the fourth seed for the second time in league history (2014, 3^rd place finish).  This is Colin’s seventh consecutive playoff appearance, tied for longest in league history (TJ, 2007-2013) and by far the longest active playoff streak.  But despite the consistency, Colin has little to show for it.  Since his only championship in 2004 he has just one finals appearance, a loss to Jarrett last year.  He’s 1-3 in his last four quarter-final match ups but is fresh off a dominant 7-3 victory over first round opponent Alex last week.

#5 Alex Gentilli:  Alex punches hit ticket to the playoffs for the second consecutive season.  He’ll try to improve on last year’s showing, when, as a #2 seed, finished in third place.  Alex hasn’t won a title since 2005 but he’s been to the finals more than any other manager in this year’s playoffs (last appearance 2012).  Alex is not playing his best fantasy baseball (0-2-1 last three weeks) and will have to turn things around in a hurry if he wants to break his 11 year dry spell.

#6 Tim McGrail:  Tim battled back from an abysmal start to the season to finish in sixth place (more on that in the full season write up next month…or in the off-season….whenever.)  It’s his second playoff appearance in three full DD seasons.  He’s looking for his first playoff victory and will have to earn it against the aforementioned juggernaut Jarrett.  Tim lost to Jarrett 7-2 last week.

2017 Season Preview!

Well the teams are set, the shit talking has begun (when did it end, really), and the 2017 season is just about underway.  Your dear Commissioner has decided that a mega-blog must be produced to mark the historic 15th season of the Diamond Dynasty, and so you will have it.  

I’ve also finished a little pet project of mine, essentially manually coping every single match up ever played in the Diamond Dyanasty, so I can answer questions like “Who was in first place after week 11 in 2007?” and “Over his last two seasons, what percent of the time was Drew in the top six in the standings?”  The answers to those questions are James and 2.4%.  So if you have any burning questions or are curious about any trends drop me a line and we can check it out.

On tap we have franchise storylines with a peek back into league history and a division showdown preview.  Hope you enjoy.

Storylines

ADRIAN struggled again in 2016, missing the playoffs for the fifth year in a row and seventh out of the last eight.  His last playoff win was an 8-2 victory over Richie in the 2008 finals, earning his second Chalice in the process.  Over the last three years he’s averaged 79 wins per year; to put that in perspective, Tim’s 2016 79-win campaign was the ninth-least wins of all time.  Alright, that’s enough Adrian bashing.  There’s no time like the present, and Adrian is out to prove that this year.  

Adrian built a strong draft board for the upcoming season as his #131 average draft pick position was the 5th highest since I started tracking 2 years ago.  Three of the four teams that had better ADP’s in the past made the playoffs.  He didn’t have any picks in the last three rounds so he shouldn’t have to scrap through the FA junk pile to fill the roster (too much).  His keepers are a little dicey; J.D. Martinez starts the season on the DL with a foot injury, Chris Archer had a terrible first half of last season, and IMO Nomar Mazara is one of the weaker flex keepers that we had this year.  But those keepers make up less than 25% of the roster so there are plenty of opportunities to out-draft and out-maneuver any deficiencies there.  There’s no reason why Adrian shouldn’t make the playoffs this year, just by the law of averages if no other reason.  I don’t know if it’s been bad management, bad luck, or a combination of the two, but this has to be the year he makes the playoffs, right?  RIGHT?

ALEX fell short of his high hopes last season.  Despite capturing the first division championship and his fourth playoff bye, he lost to eventual champion Jarrett in the second round and had to settle for third place (he’s the only manager in league history to win at least one playoff game in every post-season he’s qualified for).  His 114 wins was his 3rd most all time.

There’s no reason to think Gentilli won’t be a contender in 2017.  He had a standard draft board as he didn’t make any draft pick trades last year.  His keepers pose some significant injury threats (Strasburg, Stanton, sort of Longoria) but he’s got two young studs with Bryant and Seager.  More than with any other team, the health of Alex’s team is paramount to his success.

BEN suffered yet another heart breaking defeat in the Diamond Dynasty, this time to Mr. TJ Geers.  In the final week of the regular season, with the belt in hand and a playoff spot on the line, Ben lost the game, the belt, and the playoff spot to end his season.  It was the second consecutive year he missed the playoffs (he had only missed once from 2005-2014).  For the first time in years he starts the season looking up on the career wins list:

All Time Records (Sorted by wins)
Team	Wins	Loss	Ties	W%
Colin	1507	1401	162	.518
Ben	1503	1386	181	.519
TJ	1497	1400	173	.516
Alex	1495	1388	187	.518
Kurt	1484	1391	195	.515
James	1469	1420	181	.508
Jarrett	1458	1452	160	.501
Richie	1454	1453	163	.500
Adrian	1372	1521	177	.475
Drew	801	1054	125	.436
Tim	185	221	24	.457
Chuck	178	235	27	.435
Kyle	103	107	10	.491
Jason	91	113	16	.450
Paul	76	131	13	.375

O’Connor entered the 2017 draft with a standard draft board as well.  He made the curious decision to part with Noah Syndergaard, a move that did not go unnoticed as Colin promptly traded up to grab him with the first overall pick.  Ben elected to keep one hell of an infield with Rizzo, Cano, and Story, and he’s pairing that with Charlie Blackmon and reigning NL Cy Young award winner Max Scherzer.  It’s a great foundation to build on and I fully expect Ben to challenge for a bye this season.

COLIN has quietly moved up the ranks and might be the hottest manager in the game right now.  Look, I know the end game is to win a championship, that’s what it’s all about.  But Colin has been putting up quality seasons since 2011.  He’s made it to six straight post-seasons, one behind TJ’s record seven from 2007-2013.  He’s the third manager ever to post at least six straight 100+ win seasons (Kurt 2003-2008 and TJ 2007-2013).  He finished the 2016 regular season with a .600 winning percentage and joined Ben and Richie as the only managers to have multiple entries into “The 600 club.”  And check this out:

Weeks in first place, 2015-16
Colin	27
TJ	4
Jarrett	4
James	4
Alex	2
Ben	1

But alas, regular season achievements don’t pay the bills – Colin knows that better than anyone.  Despite the accolades, he fell to Jarrett in last year’s finals.  It’s the first time he played for a Chalice since 2004, his lone championship.

Colin was a busy beaver in the off-season and entered 2017 with a slightly below average draft position, but in my eyes he brings the second best set of keepers to the table in Trout Altuve Bogaerts and Sale.  It’s an incredible blend of power, speed, and reliability that produces an extremely high floor, likely the reason he’s had such success in the past couple of years.  An aggressive move up to the #1 draft spot to pair Sale with Syndergaard makes for one of the best 1-2 punches in the league.  I said it last year and I’ll say it again – this team has all the makings of a bye week challenger.

JAMES finished the 2016 regular season in 4^th place but lost in the semifinals to Colin, and fell in the consolation round to Alex.  It was a nice bounce back season following his 2015 campaign that saw him miss the playoffs for the third time in five years.  The two time champ began his playoff career with a 9-3 mark but is just 2-5 since his 2010 championship.  It’s been a pretty steep drop off for a franchise that went to four finals in six years (2005-2010) but it’s a new year and anything can happen.

The Grecian did not make any draft pick trades and thus enters 2017 with a standard draft board.  His self-proclaimed “shitty keepers” include some high upside guys in Correa and Aaron Sanchez, but some older ones too in Encarnacion and Cueto.  Villar rounds out his keeper list.  They’re not the sexiest group but if Correa can return to form (he was like a top 3 projected guy last year wasn’t he??) and if Sanchez can take a step forward, it’s a good solid foundation.  A bye out of this group would surprise me but the playoffs are certainly in sight.

JARRETT proved 2015 was no fluke, repeating as champion in 2016.  In his first twelve seasons as manager, he won three playoff games.  In his last two, he’s won five.  Last year he became the first manager in league history to finish the regular season in third place or better in three consecutive years.  And here’s the worst part – he might be better this year than he’s ever been.

I don’t have a stat to back this up and we won’t know until September, but there’s a very real possibility that Jarrett is carrying the best keepers this league has ever seen.  He has two guys in Arenado and Goldschmidt who can explode for 40-120-.300.  Two NL West southpaws in Kershaw and Bumgarner that are almost a lock to finish in the top-5 Cy Young.  And for a 23^rd round pick he flexes Trea Turner, a guy who ESPN ranks in their top 15 and stole 33 bases in 70 games last year.  In fact, all five of his keepers rank inside ESPN’s top 15.  Adding insult to injury, he actually has an above average draft position after sending Lindor to Tim for a high pick.  Jarrett is a lock to make the playoffs, and in my eyes, the odds on favorite to win the Chalice in 2017.

KURT tanked in 2016, which is funny because I mentioned in last year’s version of this write up that he was the only team in history never to tank.  Last year’s 91 wins and .455 winning percentage were his worst numbers in his franchise’s history, breaking his 94 win, .473% from 2009…and yet it would have been Drew’s third best season.  After making the postseason in 10 of the first 11 seasons he’s missed two of the last three.  But the former commissioner was the recipient of the largest draft pick haul in league history and sets himself up well for 2017.

As you know, Gottschalk acquired six picks for seven of his players.  He then spun some of those picks to bolster his keepers and boasts a quality group.  Harper, Donaldson and Cabrera are as good an offensive trio as you’ll find and Lester and Duffy provide a solid floor to build the pitching staff on.  For all the picks he acquired his average draft position is lower than I would expect, but it’s still obviously very good.  Like Jarrett, he’s another lock to make the playoffs and we could be looking at a rematch of the 2015 finals.

RICHIE made the playoffs for the third year in a row in 2016, a franchise first.  But a first round exit for the second year in a row left him on the outside looking in.  He managed to improve his all-time record to 1454-1453, the first time he’s been over .500 since early in the 2011 season.  Richie was the most aggressive team at the trade deadline last season and now must face the daunting task of putting together a competitive team with a draft board in tatters.

Dating back to the 2015 draft, Richie holds the three lowest ADP’s and his 2017 draft board is far and away the lowest of the bunch.  He had one pick in the first three rounds and nine in the last three.  And yet, there’s hope.  With draft boards almost as dire in 2015 and 2016, Richie secured back to back 5 seeds and made the playoffs.  Many applauded his bravery for toeing the line and going where no man has gone before.  The keeper situation is a little nerve wracking in how wide the scope of production could be.  Kluber and Votto are safe bets but Odor, Springer, and Gary Sanchez all have boom-or-bust potential.  Starting the year with a handicap is never preferred but Richie has proven that a weak draft board is far from a death sentence.

TIM felt the cold sting of a playoff-less season for the first time in 2016, and did it with style.  His 79 wins were the 9^th fewest in league history, just three more wins than Paul French’s 2004 season.  But he’s got his feet wet now and no one hates him too much yet, so his 2017 season is looking up.

McGrail had an above average ADP this year even after trading away a high pick to supplement his keepers.  In return he acquired Lindor which makes for a really nice middle infield with Brian Dozier.  Hanley fills in the flex spot and DeGrom has ace stuff, but the scariest one, and the one I have a really bad feeling about, is David Price.  The progression and uncertainty of this injury reeks of chronic, lingering bullshit and as a Sox fan, I will share in Tim’s frustration.  He’ll need a strong draft to compensate if Price misses significant time, or if his abilities are diminished.  This team looks to be headed toward the 5-6-7 playoff bubble clusterfuck.

TJ returned to the post-season in 2016 for the second year in a row and ninth in the past ten seasons, an incredible run.  As far as regular season success goes, it’s hard to find a better case than him.  He’s made the playoffs 11 of the past 13 seasons, only matched by Kurt.  He and Kurt also share the record with 11 playoff appearances.  As previously mentioned in Colin’s breakdown, TJ is the only manager ever to post seven consecutive 100+ win seasons.  But as good as his regular seasons have been, his post-seasons have been even worse.  He hold the most playoff losses (16) in Diamond Dynasty history and his 36% winning percentage is by far the worst mark for any manager with at least five match ups.  His lone championship came wayyyyy back in the 2002 season, and Yahoo doesn’t even go back that far so that will remain unverified.  It’s been a long time since TJ has had some real success in this league and I’m not sure that’ll change anytime soon.

Geers didn’t shake up his draft board at all and drafted with the standard picks.  He elected to keep three pitchers himself in a year where the rest of the league kept just 14, and strangely, I don’t feel great about the trio of Carrasco-Harvey-Arrieta.  His sexiest keeper is obviously Mookie Betts, who stands to be one of those dinosaur keepers like a Trout or a Kershaw.  And for the second year in a row, TJ used his flex pick on a proven commodity – Freedie Freeman – but did not max out the flex keeper idea as he had to use a pretty high pick on him.  The regular season king might prove me wrong but I don’t see this group making the playoffs in 2017.

Division Showdown

This year we welcome back the Division Showdown, albeit unenthusiastically (4 votes!).  Weeks 3, 12, and 21 are marked as rivalry weeks and the cumulative score will be totaled for those three weeks.  The members of the division with the better record will be awarded $20 each.  Before we look at this year, let’s take a quick look back to last year:

Winning Division (72-70-8)			Losing Division (70-72-8)
Colin	22-7-1 (75%)	Vs.	Kurt	7-22-1 (25%)
TJ	17-12-1 (58%)	Vs.	Ben	12-17-1 (42%)
Tim	17-12-1 (58%)	Vs.	James	12-17-1 (42%)
Jarrett	11-19-0 (37%)	Vs.	Richie	19-11-0 (63%)
Adrian	6-24-0 (20%)	Vs.	Alex	24-6-0 (80%)

This year’s divisions are almost identical.  Richie, Alex, Kurt, and James keep their division rivals as do Colin, Adrian, Tim, and TJ.  Jarrett and Ben have crossed enemy lines and are the newcomers in the groups.  Here are the match ups:

Alex vs. Colin: The two division captains square off in a heavyweight battle.  Unsurprisingly, the two division champions from last year finished with the top two Division Showdown winning percentages.  Historically, Colin has a 14-12-4 regular season edge over Alex and has won five of their last six meetings.  Colin has only beaten Alex once in three playoff match ups but it was a biggie – the 2004 finals.

Richie vs. Adrian: There is some history here between the two best looking league members.  Adrian holds a slight 17-16-1 advantage in the regular season all-time series between the two, but Richie has won 12 of the last 19.  Adrian has won both playoff match ups, a 2003 semifinals match and a 2008 finals bout. 

Kurt vs. TJ:  These two guys hold or share most regular season records so we should see a good match.   Kurt is 16-13-7 all-time against TJ and 5-1-2 since 2014.  They’ve met four times in the playoffs, all quarter-finals matchups, and the series is split 2-2.

James vs. Ben:  Pretty damn interesting combo here.  Ben has the better regular season head to head, 15-13-3, but James pulls even with his two playoff victories.  Which playoff victories, you ask?  Those would be James’s two championships, the 2007 and 2010 finals.

Jarrett vs. Tim:  Only four matches have been played, the series stands at 2-2.  Jarrett wins a

Chalice 100% of the time that Tim manages a team.