Monday, April 3, 2017

2017 Season Preview!

Well the teams are set, the shit talking has begun (when did it end, really), and the 2017 season is just about underway.  Your dear Commissioner has decided that a mega-blog must be produced to mark the historic 15th season of the Diamond Dynasty, and so you will have it.  

I’ve also finished a little pet project of mine, essentially manually coping every single match up ever played in the Diamond Dyanasty, so I can answer questions like “Who was in first place after week 11 in 2007?” and “Over his last two seasons, what percent of the time was Drew in the top six in the standings?”  The answers to those questions are James and 2.4%.  So if you have any burning questions or are curious about any trends drop me a line and we can check it out.

On tap we have franchise storylines with a peek back into league history and a division showdown preview.  Hope you enjoy.

Storylines

ADRIAN struggled again in 2016, missing the playoffs for the fifth year in a row and seventh out of the last eight.  His last playoff win was an 8-2 victory over Richie in the 2008 finals, earning his second Chalice in the process.  Over the last three years he’s averaged 79 wins per year; to put that in perspective, Tim’s 2016 79-win campaign was the ninth-least wins of all time.  Alright, that’s enough Adrian bashing.  There’s no time like the present, and Adrian is out to prove that this year.  

Adrian built a strong draft board for the upcoming season as his #131 average draft pick position was the 5th highest since I started tracking 2 years ago.  Three of the four teams that had better ADP’s in the past made the playoffs.  He didn’t have any picks in the last three rounds so he shouldn’t have to scrap through the FA junk pile to fill the roster (too much).  His keepers are a little dicey; J.D. Martinez starts the season on the DL with a foot injury, Chris Archer had a terrible first half of last season, and IMO Nomar Mazara is one of the weaker flex keepers that we had this year.  But those keepers make up less than 25% of the roster so there are plenty of opportunities to out-draft and out-maneuver any deficiencies there.  There’s no reason why Adrian shouldn’t make the playoffs this year, just by the law of averages if no other reason.  I don’t know if it’s been bad management, bad luck, or a combination of the two, but this has to be the year he makes the playoffs, right?  RIGHT?

ALEX fell short of his high hopes last season.  Despite capturing the first division championship and his fourth playoff bye, he lost to eventual champion Jarrett in the second round and had to settle for third place (he’s the only manager in league history to win at least one playoff game in every post-season he’s qualified for).  His 114 wins was his 3rd most all time.

There’s no reason to think Gentilli won’t be a contender in 2017.  He had a standard draft board as he didn’t make any draft pick trades last year.  His keepers pose some significant injury threats (Strasburg, Stanton, sort of Longoria) but he’s got two young studs with Bryant and Seager.  More than with any other team, the health of Alex’s team is paramount to his success.

BEN suffered yet another heart breaking defeat in the Diamond Dynasty, this time to Mr. TJ Geers.  In the final week of the regular season, with the belt in hand and a playoff spot on the line, Ben lost the game, the belt, and the playoff spot to end his season.  It was the second consecutive year he missed the playoffs (he had only missed once from 2005-2014).  For the first time in years he starts the season looking up on the career wins list:

All Time Records
(Sorted by wins)
Team
Wins
Loss
Ties
W%
Colin
1507
1401
162
.518
Ben
1503
1386
181
.519
TJ
1497
1400
173
.516
Alex
1495
1388
187
.518
Kurt
1484
1391
195
.515
James
1469
1420
181
.508
Jarrett
1458
1452
160
.501
Richie
1454
1453
163
.500
Adrian
1372
1521
177
.475
Drew
801
1054
125
.436
Tim
185
221
24
.457
Chuck
178
235
27
.435
Kyle
103
107
10
.491
Jason
91
113
16
.450
Paul
76
131
13
.375

O’Connor entered the 2017 draft with a standard draft board as well.  He made the curious decision to part with Noah Syndergaard, a move that did not go unnoticed as Colin promptly traded up to grab him with the first overall pick.  Ben elected to keep one hell of an infield with Rizzo, Cano, and Story, and he’s pairing that with Charlie Blackmon and reigning NL Cy Young award winner Max Scherzer.  It’s a great foundation to build on and I fully expect Ben to challenge for a bye this season.

COLIN has quietly moved up the ranks and might be the hottest manager in the game right now.  Look, I know the end game is to win a championship, that’s what it’s all about.  But Colin has been putting up quality seasons since 2011.  He’s made it to six straight post-seasons, one behind TJ’s record seven from 2007-2013.  He’s the third manager ever to post at least six straight 100+ win seasons (Kurt 2003-2008 and TJ 2007-2013).  He finished the 2016 regular season with a .600 winning percentage and joined Ben and Richie as the only managers to have multiple entries into “The 600 club.”  And check this out:

Weeks in first place, 2015-16
Colin
27
TJ
4
Jarrett
4
James
4
Alex
2
Ben
1

But alas, regular season achievements don’t pay the bills – Colin knows that better than anyone.  Despite the accolades, he fell to Jarrett in last year’s finals.  It’s the first time he played for a Chalice since 2004, his lone championship.

Colin was a busy beaver in the off-season and entered 2017 with a slightly below average draft position, but in my eyes he brings the second best set of keepers to the table in Trout Altuve Bogaerts and Sale.  It’s an incredible blend of power, speed, and reliability that produces an extremely high floor, likely the reason he’s had such success in the past couple of years.  An aggressive move up to the #1 draft spot to pair Sale with Syndergaard makes for one of the best 1-2 punches in the league.  I said it last year and I’ll say it again – this team has all the makings of a bye week challenger.

JAMES finished the 2016 regular season in 4th place but lost in the semifinals to Colin, and fell in the consolation round to Alex.  It was a nice bounce back season following his 2015 campaign that saw him miss the playoffs for the third time in five years.  The two time champ began his playoff career with a 9-3 mark but is just 2-5 since his 2010 championship.  It’s been a pretty steep drop off for a franchise that went to four finals in six years (2005-2010) but it’s a new year and anything can happen.

The Grecian did not make any draft pick trades and thus enters 2017 with a standard draft board.  His self-proclaimed “shitty keepers” include some high upside guys in Correa and Aaron Sanchez, but some older ones too in Encarnacion and Cueto.  Villar rounds out his keeper list.  They’re not the sexiest group but if Correa can return to form (he was like a top 3 projected guy last year wasn’t he??) and if Sanchez can take a step forward, it’s a good solid foundation.  A bye out of this group would surprise me but the playoffs are certainly in sight.

JARRETT proved 2015 was no fluke, repeating as champion in 2016.  In his first twelve seasons as manager, he won three playoff games.  In his last two, he’s won five.  Last year he became the first manager in league history to finish the regular season in third place or better in three consecutive years.  And here’s the worst part – he might be better this year than he’s ever been.

I don’t have a stat to back this up and we won’t know until September, but there’s a very real possibility that Jarrett is carrying the best keepers this league has ever seen.  He has two guys in Arenado and Goldschmidt who can explode for 40-120-.300.  Two NL West southpaws in Kershaw and Bumgarner that are almost a lock to finish in the top-5 Cy Young.  And for a 23rd round pick he flexes Trea Turner, a guy who ESPN ranks in their top 15 and stole 33 bases in 70 games last year.  In fact, all five of his keepers rank inside ESPN’s top 15.  Adding insult to injury, he actually has an above average draft position after sending Lindor to Tim for a high pick.  Jarrett is a lock to make the playoffs, and in my eyes, the odds on favorite to win the Chalice in 2017.

KURT tanked in 2016, which is funny because I mentioned in last year’s version of this write up that he was the only team in history never to tank.  Last year’s 91 wins and .455 winning percentage were his worst numbers in his franchise’s history, breaking his 94 win, .473% from 2009…and yet it would have been Drew’s third best season.  After making the postseason in 10 of the first 11 seasons he’s missed two of the last three.  But the former commissioner was the recipient of the largest draft pick haul in league history and sets himself up well for 2017.

As you know, Gottschalk acquired six picks for seven of his players.  He then spun some of those picks to bolster his keepers and boasts a quality group.  Harper, Donaldson and Cabrera are as good an offensive trio as you’ll find and Lester and Duffy provide a solid floor to build the pitching staff on.  For all the picks he acquired his average draft position is lower than I would expect, but it’s still obviously very good.  Like Jarrett, he’s another lock to make the playoffs and we could be looking at a rematch of the 2015 finals.

RICHIE made the playoffs for the third year in a row in 2016, a franchise first.  But a first round exit for the second year in a row left him on the outside looking in.  He managed to improve his all-time record to 1454-1453, the first time he’s been over .500 since early in the 2011 season.  Richie was the most aggressive team at the trade deadline last season and now must face the daunting task of putting together a competitive team with a draft board in tatters.

Dating back to the 2015 draft, Richie holds the three lowest ADP’s and his 2017 draft board is far and away the lowest of the bunch.  He had one pick in the first three rounds and nine in the last three.  And yet, there’s hope.  With draft boards almost as dire in 2015 and 2016, Richie secured back to back 5 seeds and made the playoffs.  Many applauded his bravery for toeing the line and going where no man has gone before.  The keeper situation is a little nerve wracking in how wide the scope of production could be.  Kluber and Votto are safe bets but Odor, Springer, and Gary Sanchez all have boom-or-bust potential.  Starting the year with a handicap is never preferred but Richie has proven that a weak draft board is far from a death sentence.

TIM felt the cold sting of a playoff-less season for the first time in 2016, and did it with style.  His 79 wins were the 9th fewest in league history, just three more wins than Paul French’s 2004 season.  But he’s got his feet wet now and no one hates him too much yet, so his 2017 season is looking up.

McGrail had an above average ADP this year even after trading away a high pick to supplement his keepers.  In return he acquired Lindor which makes for a really nice middle infield with Brian Dozier.  Hanley fills in the flex spot and DeGrom has ace stuff, but the scariest one, and the one I have a really bad feeling about, is David Price.  The progression and uncertainty of this injury reeks of chronic, lingering bullshit and as a Sox fan, I will share in Tim’s frustration.  He’ll need a strong draft to compensate if Price misses significant time, or if his abilities are diminished.  This team looks to be headed toward the 5-6-7 playoff bubble clusterfuck.

TJ returned to the post-season in 2016 for the second year in a row and ninth in the past ten seasons, an incredible run.  As far as regular season success goes, it’s hard to find a better case than him.  He’s made the playoffs 11 of the past 13 seasons, only matched by Kurt.  He and Kurt also share the record with 11 playoff appearances.  As previously mentioned in Colin’s breakdown, TJ is the only manager ever to post seven consecutive 100+ win seasons.  But as good as his regular seasons have been, his post-seasons have been even worse.  He hold the most playoff losses (16) in Diamond Dynasty history and his 36% winning percentage is by far the worst mark for any manager with at least five match ups.  His lone championship came wayyyyy back in the 2002 season, and Yahoo doesn’t even go back that far so that will remain unverified.  It’s been a long time since TJ has had some real success in this league and I’m not sure that’ll change anytime soon.

Geers didn’t shake up his draft board at all and drafted with the standard picks.  He elected to keep three pitchers himself in a year where the rest of the league kept just 14, and strangely, I don’t feel great about the trio of Carrasco-Harvey-Arrieta.  His sexiest keeper is obviously Mookie Betts, who stands to be one of those dinosaur keepers like a Trout or a Kershaw.  And for the second year in a row, TJ used his flex pick on a proven commodity – Freedie Freeman – but did not max out the flex keeper idea as he had to use a pretty high pick on him.  The regular season king might prove me wrong but I don’t see this group making the playoffs in 2017.

Division Showdown

This year we welcome back the Division Showdown, albeit unenthusiastically (4 votes!).  Weeks 3, 12, and 21 are marked as rivalry weeks and the cumulative score will be totaled for those three weeks.  The members of the division with the better record will be awarded $20 each.  Before we look at this year, let’s take a quick look back to last year:

Winning Division (72-70-8)

Losing Division (70-72-8)
Colin
22-7-1 (75%)
Vs.
Kurt
7-22-1 (25%)
TJ
17-12-1 (58%)
Vs.
Ben
12-17-1 (42%)
Tim
17-12-1 (58%)
Vs.
James
12-17-1 (42%)
Jarrett
11-19-0 (37%)
Vs.
Richie
19-11-0 (63%)
Adrian
6-24-0 (20%)
Vs.
Alex
24-6-0 (80%)

This year’s divisions are almost identical.  Richie, Alex, Kurt, and James keep their division rivals as do Colin, Adrian, Tim, and TJ.  Jarrett and Ben have crossed enemy lines and are the newcomers in the groups.  Here are the match ups:

Alex vs. Colin: The two division captains square off in a heavyweight battle.  Unsurprisingly, the two division champions from last year finished with the top two Division Showdown winning percentages.  Historically, Colin has a 14-12-4 regular season edge over Alex and has won five of their last six meetings.  Colin has only beaten Alex once in three playoff match ups but it was a biggie – the 2004 finals.

Richie vs. Adrian: There is some history here between the two best looking league members.  Adrian holds a slight 17-16-1 advantage in the regular season all-time series between the two, but Richie has won 12 of the last 19.  Adrian has won both playoff match ups, a 2003 semifinals match and a 2008 finals bout. 

Kurt vs. TJ:  These two guys hold or share most regular season records so we should see a good match.   Kurt is 16-13-7 all-time against TJ and 5-1-2 since 2014.  They’ve met four times in the playoffs, all quarter-finals matchups, and the series is split 2-2.

James vs. Ben:  Pretty damn interesting combo here.  Ben has the better regular season head to head, 15-13-3, but James pulls even with his two playoff victories.  Which playoff victories, you ask?  Those would be James’s two championships, the 2007 and 2010 finals.

Jarrett vs. Tim:  Only four matches have been played, the series stands at 2-2.  Jarrett wins a
Chalice 100% of the time that Tim manages a team.


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