Well the teams are set, the
shit talking has begun (when did it end, really), and the 2017 season is just
about underway. Your dear Commissioner has decided that a mega-blog must
be produced to mark the historic 15th season of the Diamond Dynasty, and so you
will have it.
I’ve also finished a little
pet project of mine, essentially manually coping every single match up ever
played in the Diamond Dyanasty, so I can answer questions like “Who was in
first place after week 11 in 2007?” and “Over his last two seasons, what
percent of the time was Drew in the top six in the standings?” The answers to those questions are James and 2.4%. So if you have any burning questions or are
curious about any trends drop me a line and we can check it out.
On tap we have franchise
storylines with a peek back into league history and a division showdown preview. Hope you enjoy.
Storylines
ADRIAN struggled again in 2016, missing the playoffs
for the fifth year in a row and seventh out of the last eight. His last
playoff win was an 8-2 victory over Richie in the 2008 finals, earning his
second Chalice in the process. Over the last three years he’s averaged 79 wins per year; to put that
in perspective, Tim’s 2016 79-win campaign was the ninth-least wins of all
time. Alright, that’s enough Adrian bashing. There’s no time like
the present, and Adrian is out to prove that this year.
Adrian
built a strong draft board for the upcoming season as his #131 average draft
pick position was the 5th highest since I started tracking 2 years ago.
Three of the four teams that had better ADP’s in the past made the
playoffs. He didn’t have any picks in the last three rounds so he
shouldn’t have to scrap through the FA junk pile to fill the roster (too much).
His keepers are a little dicey; J.D. Martinez starts the season on the DL
with a foot injury, Chris Archer had a terrible first half of last season, and
IMO Nomar Mazara is one of the weaker flex keepers that we had this year.
But those keepers make up less than 25% of the roster so there are plenty
of opportunities to out-draft and out-maneuver any deficiencies there.
There’s no reason why Adrian shouldn’t make the playoffs this year, just
by the law of averages if no other reason. I don’t know if it’s been bad
management, bad luck, or a combination of the two, but this has to be the year
he makes the playoffs, right? RIGHT?
ALEX fell short of his high hopes last season.
Despite capturing the first division championship and his fourth playoff
bye, he lost to eventual champion Jarrett in the second round and had to settle
for third place (he’s the only manager in league history to win at least one
playoff game in every post-season he’s qualified for). His 114 wins was
his 3rd most all time.
There’s no
reason to think Gentilli won’t be a contender in 2017. He had a standard
draft board as he didn’t make any draft pick trades last year. His
keepers pose some significant injury threats (Strasburg, Stanton, sort of
Longoria) but he’s got two young studs with Bryant and Seager. More than
with any other team, the health of Alex’s team is paramount to his success.
BEN suffered yet another heart breaking defeat in
the Diamond Dynasty, this time to Mr. TJ Geers. In the final week of the
regular season, with the belt in hand and a playoff spot on the line, Ben lost
the game, the belt, and the playoff spot to end his season. It was the
second consecutive year he missed the playoffs (he had only missed once from
2005-2014). For the first time in years he starts the season looking up
on the career wins list:
|
All Time Records
(Sorted by wins)
|
||||
|
Team
|
Wins
|
Loss
|
Ties
|
W%
|
|
Colin
|
1507
|
1401
|
162
|
.518
|
|
Ben
|
1503
|
1386
|
181
|
.519
|
|
TJ
|
1497
|
1400
|
173
|
.516
|
|
Alex
|
1495
|
1388
|
187
|
.518
|
|
Kurt
|
1484
|
1391
|
195
|
.515
|
|
James
|
1469
|
1420
|
181
|
.508
|
|
Jarrett
|
1458
|
1452
|
160
|
.501
|
|
Richie
|
1454
|
1453
|
163
|
.500
|
|
Adrian
|
1372
|
1521
|
177
|
.475
|
|
Drew
|
801
|
1054
|
125
|
.436
|
|
Tim
|
185
|
221
|
24
|
.457
|
|
Chuck
|
178
|
235
|
27
|
.435
|
|
Kyle
|
103
|
107
|
10
|
.491
|
|
Jason
|
91
|
113
|
16
|
.450
|
|
Paul
|
76
|
131
|
13
|
.375
|
O’Connor
entered the 2017 draft with a standard draft board as well. He made the
curious decision to part with Noah Syndergaard, a move that did not go
unnoticed as Colin promptly traded up to grab him with the first overall pick.
Ben elected to keep one hell of an infield with Rizzo, Cano, and Story,
and he’s pairing that with Charlie Blackmon and reigning NL Cy Young award
winner Max Scherzer. It’s a great foundation to build on and I fully
expect Ben to challenge for a bye this season.
COLIN has quietly moved up the ranks and might be the
hottest manager in the game right now. Look, I know the end game is to
win a championship, that’s what it’s all about. But Colin has been
putting up quality seasons since 2011. He’s made it to six straight
post-seasons, one behind TJ’s record seven from 2007-2013. He’s the third manager ever to post at least
six straight 100+ win seasons (Kurt 2003-2008 and TJ 2007-2013). He finished the 2016 regular season with a
.600 winning percentage and joined Ben and Richie as the only managers to have
multiple entries into “The 600 club.” And
check this out:
|
Weeks in first
place, 2015-16
|
|
|
Colin
|
27
|
|
TJ
|
4
|
|
Jarrett
|
4
|
|
James
|
4
|
|
Alex
|
2
|
|
Ben
|
1
|
But alas,
regular season achievements don’t pay the bills – Colin knows that better than
anyone. Despite the accolades, he fell
to Jarrett in last year’s finals. It’s
the first time he played for a Chalice since 2004, his lone championship.
Colin was
a busy beaver in the off-season and entered 2017 with a slightly below average
draft position, but in my eyes he brings the second best set of keepers to the
table in Trout Altuve Bogaerts and Sale.
It’s an incredible blend of power, speed, and reliability that produces
an extremely high floor, likely the reason he’s had such success in the past
couple of years. An aggressive move up
to the #1 draft spot to pair Sale with Syndergaard makes for one of the best
1-2 punches in the league. I said it
last year and I’ll say it again – this team has all the makings of a bye week
challenger.
JAMES finished the 2016 regular season in 4th
place but lost in the semifinals to Colin, and fell in the consolation round to
Alex. It was a nice bounce back season
following his 2015 campaign that saw him miss the playoffs for the third time
in five years. The two time champ began
his playoff career with a 9-3 mark but is just 2-5 since his 2010
championship. It’s been a pretty steep drop
off for a franchise that went to four finals in six years (2005-2010) but it’s
a new year and anything can happen.
The Grecian
did not make any draft pick trades and thus enters 2017 with a standard draft
board. His self-proclaimed “shitty
keepers” include some high upside guys in Correa and Aaron Sanchez, but some
older ones too in Encarnacion and Cueto.
Villar rounds out his keeper list.
They’re not the sexiest group but if Correa can return to form (he was
like a top 3 projected guy last year wasn’t he??) and if Sanchez can take a
step forward, it’s a good solid foundation.
A bye out of this group would surprise me but the playoffs are certainly
in sight.
JARRETT proved 2015 was no
fluke, repeating as champion in 2016. In
his first twelve seasons as manager, he won three playoff games. In his last two, he’s won five. Last year he became the first manager in
league history to finish the regular season in third place or better in three
consecutive years. And here’s the worst
part – he might be better this year than he’s ever been.
I don’t
have a stat to back this up and we won’t know until September, but there’s a
very real possibility that Jarrett is carrying the best keepers this league has
ever seen. He has two guys in Arenado
and Goldschmidt who can explode for 40-120-.300. Two NL West southpaws in Kershaw and
Bumgarner that are almost a lock to finish in the top-5 Cy Young. And for a 23rd round pick he
flexes Trea Turner, a guy who ESPN ranks in their top 15 and stole 33 bases in
70 games last year. In fact, all five of
his keepers rank inside ESPN’s top 15.
Adding insult to injury, he actually has an above average draft position
after sending Lindor to Tim for a high pick.
Jarrett is a lock to make the playoffs, and in my eyes, the odds on
favorite to win the Chalice in 2017.
KURT tanked in 2016, which is funny because I
mentioned in last year’s version of this write up that he was the only team in
history never to tank. Last year’s 91
wins and .455 winning percentage were his worst numbers in his franchise’s
history, breaking his 94 win, .473% from 2009…and yet it would have been Drew’s
third best season. After making the postseason
in 10 of the first 11 seasons he’s missed two of the last three. But the former commissioner was the recipient
of the largest draft pick haul in league history and sets himself up well for
2017.
As you
know, Gottschalk acquired six picks for seven of his players. He then spun some of those picks to bolster
his keepers and boasts a quality group.
Harper, Donaldson and Cabrera are as good an offensive trio as you’ll find
and Lester and Duffy provide a solid floor to build the pitching staff on. For all the picks he acquired his average
draft position is lower than I would expect, but it’s still obviously very
good. Like Jarrett, he’s another lock to
make the playoffs and we could be looking at a rematch of the 2015 finals.
RICHIE made the playoffs for the third year in a row in
2016, a franchise first. But a first round
exit for the second year in a row left him on the outside looking in. He managed to improve his all-time record to
1454-1453, the first time he’s been over .500 since early in the 2011
season. Richie was the most aggressive
team at the trade deadline last season and now must face the daunting task of
putting together a competitive team with a draft board in tatters.
Dating
back to the 2015 draft, Richie holds the three lowest ADP’s and his 2017 draft
board is far and away the lowest of the bunch.
He had one pick in the first three rounds and nine in the last three. And yet, there’s hope. With draft boards almost as dire in 2015 and
2016, Richie secured back to back 5 seeds and made the playoffs. Many applauded his bravery for toeing the
line and going where no man has gone before.
The keeper situation is a little nerve wracking in how wide the scope of
production could be. Kluber and Votto
are safe bets but Odor, Springer, and Gary Sanchez all have boom-or-bust
potential. Starting the year with a
handicap is never preferred but Richie has proven that a weak draft board is
far from a death sentence.
TIM felt the cold sting of a playoff-less season for
the first time in 2016, and did it with style.
His 79 wins were the 9th fewest in league history, just three
more wins than Paul French’s 2004 season.
But he’s got his feet wet now and no one hates him too much yet, so his
2017 season is looking up.
McGrail
had an above average ADP this year even after trading away a high pick to
supplement his keepers. In return he
acquired Lindor which makes for a really nice middle infield with Brian
Dozier. Hanley fills in the flex spot
and DeGrom has ace stuff, but the scariest one, and the one I have a really bad
feeling about, is David Price. The progression
and uncertainty of this injury reeks of chronic, lingering bullshit and as a
Sox fan, I will share in Tim’s frustration.
He’ll need a strong draft to compensate if Price misses significant
time, or if his abilities are diminished.
This team looks to be headed toward the 5-6-7 playoff bubble
clusterfuck.
TJ returned to the post-season in 2016 for the
second year in a row and ninth in the past ten seasons, an incredible run.
As far as regular season success goes, it’s hard to find a better case
than him. He’s made the playoffs 11 of
the past 13 seasons, only matched by Kurt.
He and Kurt also share the record with 11 playoff appearances. As previously mentioned in Colin’s breakdown,
TJ is the only manager ever to post seven consecutive 100+ win seasons. But as good as his regular seasons have been,
his post-seasons have been even worse. He
hold the most playoff losses (16) in Diamond Dynasty history and his 36%
winning percentage is by far the worst mark for any manager with at least five
match ups. His lone championship came
wayyyyy back in the 2002 season, and Yahoo doesn’t even go back that far so
that will remain unverified. It’s been a
long time since TJ has had some real success in this league and I’m not sure
that’ll change anytime soon.
Geers didn’t
shake up his draft board at all and drafted with the standard picks. He elected to keep three pitchers himself in
a year where the rest of the league kept just 14, and strangely, I don’t feel
great about the trio of Carrasco-Harvey-Arrieta. His sexiest keeper is obviously Mookie Betts,
who stands to be one of those dinosaur keepers like a Trout or a Kershaw. And for the second year in a row, TJ used his
flex pick on a proven commodity – Freedie Freeman – but did not max out the
flex keeper idea as he had to use a pretty high pick on him. The regular season king might prove me wrong
but I don’t see this group making the playoffs in 2017.
Division
Showdown
This year
we welcome back the Division Showdown, albeit unenthusiastically (4 votes!). Weeks 3, 12, and 21 are marked as rivalry
weeks and the cumulative score will be totaled for those three weeks. The members of the division with the better
record will be awarded $20 each. Before
we look at this year, let’s take a quick look back to last year:
|
Winning Division (72-70-8)
|
|
Losing Division (70-72-8)
|
||
|
Colin
|
22-7-1 (75%)
|
Vs.
|
Kurt
|
7-22-1 (25%)
|
|
TJ
|
17-12-1 (58%)
|
Vs.
|
Ben
|
12-17-1 (42%)
|
|
Tim
|
17-12-1 (58%)
|
Vs.
|
James
|
12-17-1 (42%)
|
|
Jarrett
|
11-19-0 (37%)
|
Vs.
|
Richie
|
19-11-0 (63%)
|
|
Adrian
|
6-24-0 (20%)
|
Vs.
|
Alex
|
24-6-0 (80%)
|
This year’s
divisions are almost identical. Richie,
Alex, Kurt, and James keep their division rivals as do Colin, Adrian, Tim, and
TJ. Jarrett and Ben have crossed enemy
lines and are the newcomers in the groups.
Here are the match ups:
Alex vs. Colin: The two
division captains square off in a heavyweight battle. Unsurprisingly, the two division champions
from last year finished with the top two Division Showdown winning percentages. Historically, Colin has a 14-12-4 regular
season edge over Alex and has won five of their last six meetings. Colin has only beaten Alex once in three
playoff match ups but it was a biggie – the 2004 finals.
Richie vs. Adrian: There is
some history here between the two best looking league members. Adrian holds a slight 17-16-1 advantage in
the regular season all-time series between the two, but Richie has won 12 of
the last 19. Adrian has won both playoff
match ups, a 2003 semifinals match and a 2008 finals bout.
Kurt vs. TJ: These two guys hold or share most regular
season records so we should see a good match.
Kurt is 16-13-7 all-time against
TJ and 5-1-2 since 2014. They’ve met four
times in the playoffs, all quarter-finals matchups, and the series is split
2-2.
James vs. Ben: Pretty damn interesting combo here. Ben has the better regular season head to
head, 15-13-3, but James pulls even with his two playoff victories. Which playoff victories, you ask? Those would be James’s two championships, the
2007 and 2010 finals.
Jarrett vs. Tim: Only four matches have been played, the
series stands at 2-2. Jarrett wins a
Chalice
100% of the time that Tim manages a team.
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