Playoff Probabilities

This is a re-post of last year's blog with updated numbers.

Congratulations!  You made it to the playoffs.  It was a long hard road filled with adversity and struggle, but you drafted and managed your way into a chance at the Chalice.  As we all know, the Head to Head matchup style can be cruel and unforgiving.  In 2005, Ben put on the greatest display of managing in league history.  His 144 wins and .666 winning percentage still stand as the greatest display of prolonged dominance this league has seen.  And despite finishing 34.5 games ahead of his first round opponent, he went 0-2 in the playoffs and didn't even cash.  It may not be fair, but god damn it it’s exciting.  As you would expect, Ben’s experience is not typical.  In the 14 years of Yahoo! documented league history…….

The #1 seed (TJ) has gone on to win the Chalice six times (Adrian ‘03, Colin ‘04, James ‘07, Kurt ‘12, Ben ‘13, Richie '14). They've lost in the finals twice (Adrian ‘06, Ben ‘10). The eight finals appearances are the most from any playoff seed. With the most championships coming from this position, you could argue that the #1 seed has had the most success. But an argument could be made for…

The #2 seed (RICHIE), which has finished in at least third place (i.e. money back) in seven of the last eight seasons.  While it can't match the finals success of the #1 seed (#2 seeds are 2-4 in championship games), it holds a dominating 6-2 record in the consolation game (winners are Richie ‘04, Jarrett ‘06, Colin ‘09, Alex ‘10, TJ ‘11, James ‘13).  Overall, more than 80% of the teams that earned a bye have finished in the money, which is a figure that declines sharply once you hit…

The #3 seed (JARRETT), where 50% have cashed. #3 seeds are the only seed aside from the #1 seed with a winning record in the title game, winning three of their four appearances (Ben ‘06, Drew ’09, Jarrett ‘16). The numbers diminish again when you sink to…

The #4 seed (COLIN), who has finished in the money 43% of the time.  This seed represents the most non-bye championship appearances (five); two winners (Alex ‘05, Kurt ‘11) and three losers (Richie ‘08, James ‘09, Kurt '15).  #4 seeds have not fared well in the consolation game capturing just one win (Colin '14) against four losses (Richie ‘03, TJ ‘10, Alex ’13, James ‘16).  Add it all up and the #4 seed is 3-7 in money games. The seed you must avoid at all costs is…………..

The #5 seed (ALEX), who’s 7% cash rate makes it by far and away the least lucrative playoff seed in history.  With zero trips to the finals and one third place finish (Kurt ‘07), there’s no doubt this is the cement-shoe seed.  #5 seeds are 4-10 in the first round of the playoffs and 1-8 in their last nine, meaning more than two-thirds of their seasons end in the dreaded, pointless double consolation game. It’s amazing how much better it’s been to be…………..

The #6 seed (TIM), who’s one championship (James ‘10) and 36% cash rate is far more attractive.  Sure, they've taken their lumps; they've come in last more than any other seed (57%), but with three second-place finishes (Alex ‘04, Ben ‘11, Ben '14) and a cash back third (Colin '03), it’s not all that bad.  Plus, you’re automatically the Cinderella story that everyone roots for.  Sot you got that goin’ for you, which is nice.  But of course if you can’t read, there’s always this:

	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	$$$	Share
1 Seed	43%	21%	7%	29%	NA	NA	71%	33%
2 Seed	14%	29%	50%	7%	NA	NA	93%	22%
3 Seed	21%	7%	21%	14%	29%	7%	50%	17%
4 Seed	14%	21%	7%	29%	21%	7%	43%	16%
5 Seed	0%	0%	7%	21%	43%	29%	7%	1%
6 Seed	7%	21%	7%	0%	7%	57%	36%	11%