Finals preview!

And then there were two.

24 weeks of shit talking, spot starting, adds, drops, starting partial rosters, trades, luck, and a million other events have all led to the 2015 Diamond Dynasty finals.  For the first time in history we will see Kurt vs Jarrett for the Chalice for Fantasy Baseball Excellence.  Let's take another look at the contenders.

Jarrett (#2 seed) outlasted TJ in the semi-finals by a 5-5 mark.  As this blogger predicted (with eerie precision), Jarrett swept the 5 offensive categories and he held the tie breaker thanks to 9/11.  It's incredible how much that stat correction affected this post-season.

Jarrett is making his first finals appearance in his 14 year career; he was 0-3 in the semi-finals before last week.  He's the first #2 seed to make it to the finals since Alex in 2012, who lost to Kurt in the finals.  The #2 seed has not fared well in championship bouts, posting a 1-4 record.

On the other side, Kurt (#4 seed) beat the #1 seed Colin handily, flirting with the shutout en route to a 9-1 victory.  He's been hot as a pistol for some time now and rolls into the finals on a 6 week winning streak.  Add in the Neighborhood Rumble finals and he's taken down his last 7 opponents.

Kurt is a well-decorated playoff veteran with a perfect 2-0 record in championship matches.  He's the first #4 seed to make it to the finals since he did it in 2011 when he won the first of his back to back titles.  Overall, #4 seeds are 2-2 in the finals.

This will be the third time the league has seen a #2 seed play a #4 seed for the championship; each seed has a victory to it's number.  Alex (#4) beat James (#2) in 2005, and Adrian (#2) beat Richie (#4) in 2008.

This will only be the second-ever post-season meeting between the two.  Kurt (#5 seed) beat Jarrett (#3 seed) 6-4 in the 2007 consolation game.  But enough of this superfluous statistical breakdown.  Let's get to the match!

Jarrett's riding some hot bats into the finals.  He's got four batters in the top 17 over the last 14 days and that doesn't include Paul Goldschmidt who hit 3 bombs in last week's match.  Kurt saw huge contributions from unlikely candidates in last week's win over Colin;  Duda posted 5/3/12/.353 and Stephen Piscotty chipped in with 5/2/7/.333.  If Duda can give Kurt 80% of that effort and Kurt's mainstays can continue to perform he will be a difficult out.  Both offenses feature top end talent and depth.  Staaf and Gottschalk put up almost identical numbers last week:

Team	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
Kurt	45	11	36	5	0.284
Jarrett	46	12	45	4	0.285

The pitching match up will be one to watch.  Jarrett is going full bore SP and has dropped Kevin Jepsen, Shawn Tolleson, and Aroldis Chapman.  This has to be the first time that a team in the championship game has loaded up on a strategy this aggressive.  It appears that Kurt has countered slightly, cutting ties with David Robertson.  Jarrett is still holding onto Betances for now, but I have to assume he's the next to hit FA.

Jarrett has the edge on the mound, if nothing else but for sheer projected innings.  Neither team had a SP yesterday and Jarrett is throwing out 6 to Kurt's 2 on Tuesday, including some guys named Kershaw and Bumgarner.  If he holds onto all those guys that's another 6 starters on the weekend.  It's hard to know what teams might do to set up their playoff rotations but at this point Jarrett might end up with twice as many starts as Kurt this week which will obviously have a strong impact on Wins and K's.  Last week's pitching numbers between the two managers were tight as well:

Team	W	SV	K	ERA	WHIP
Kurt	6	9	81	3.55	1.26
Jarrett	8	2	78	3.71	1.30

Put it all together and last week's numbers would have given Jarrett the title on a (stop me if you've heard this before) 5-5 tie-breaker.  Obviously things may have unfolded differently from a strategy standpoint, but it just goes to show how even these teams are.

So who takes it home?  Do we have our 11th first-time Diamond Dynasty champion in 15 seasons, or do we see the league's first 3-time champion?

Either way, History Will Be Made on Sunday night.

Week 24: Semi-finals

Ever since that fateful day, September 11th, I was prepared to do some revisionist history and see what would have happened without the stat correction to end all stat corrections.  And the results?  Huge mother flippin' shifts in the 2015 playoffs.  I will never forget this year for like 2 weeks.

After crunching the numbers in the non-stat corrected world, Richie would have advanced to face Colin in the semi-finals thanks to his tie breaker over Kurt and Jarrett would have lost to Tim to set up a Tim-TJ match on the other side of the bracket.  

"But Richie, I would have made completely different moves if I had a scoreboard to watch."  

I know Jarrett, but you probably would have spent your moves on probable pitchers meaning you still would have lost the offensive categories 3-2.  Your WHIP was unsalvageable (1.48 to Tim's 1.26).  That gives Tim 4 categories.  You tied saves and that wouldn't have changed.  So it comes down to K, ERA, and W.  You tied in Wins and were down 13 in K.  You likely would have won Wins by spot starting, but K's was not a guarantee.  And who knows, with all those spot starts, your 0.22 lead in ERA could have flipped the entire match to a 5-4-1 deficit to the rookie.  So Tim, welcome to the Diamond Dynasty.  Your asshole has been appropriately re-sized by Yahoo!  Any way you slice it, the match ups came down to razor thin margins and it's a shame someone had to lose.  Especially because I was one of them.

Deep breaths, Richie, deep breaths.  You have a blog to write and hundreds dozens tens three fans looking forward to your work.

Jarrett (#2) vs TJ (#3)

TJ and Jarrett don't have much playoff history; this is only the fourth post-season that they've both made it, and the first time since 2009.  Yahoo! records indicate just one post-season showdown between the two managers, a double consolation game in 2008 which TJ won.

The offenses are pretty even, falling within the same general totals across the board.  But TJ's bats were offensively bad last week and they seem to be slumping at a bad time.  As of Tuesday night, Jarrett has 5 hitters in the top 39 over the last 7 days.  With the tie-breaker in hand, Jarrett's bats have an outside shot to make the pitching categories obsolete.

As with last week, TJ has the edge on the mound by a good margin.  A two-start week from Arrieta might be the difference, but with the Mets jerking around Matt Harvey it's hard to say that TJ can do enough damage from the mound.  With Jarrett only needing 5 categories to advance, I think this is the season he breaks through for his first finals appearance. 

Colin (#1) vs Kurt (#4)

Kurt and Colin have a much deeper playoff history and are embarking on their 6th September Standoff, most of them meaningful.

Year	Round	Result
2004	semi-finals	Colin (1) def. Kurt (5) 5-5
2008	consolation	Kurt (1) def. Colin (3) 6-3
2011	quarter-finals	Kurt (4) def. Colin (5) 6-4
2012	semi-finals	Kurt (1) def. Colin (5) 5-5
2013	dbl consolation	Kurt (6) def. Colin (5) 7-3

Kurt has had Colin's number in recent years but this is the first time Colin is coming into the semi-finals with the stronger team since 2004.

Offensively, it's hard to cram any more stars into these lineups than there already are.  Trout vs Harper.  Altuve vs Gordon.  Cabrera vs Donaldson.  Braun vs CarGo.  These teams boast elite level talent at multiple positions and each of them are capable of winning categories nearly by themselves.  Trout is starting to turn the corner after a slow August but Harper has been on an absolute tear, ranked first overall in the last 7, 14, and 30 days.  He must have slumped prior to that as he is only ranked second overall for the season.  Hard to imagine either of these teams dominating on this side of the ball.

Colin has an edge defensively based on the season totals.  He trails slightly in wins and WHIP but has big leads in saves and K's.  Kurt gets to throw Kuechel out there twice but Colin counters with a Chris Archer double feature.  It looks like Colin's guys have been a little sharper recently and based on his season totals I'd lean toward Colin nabbing at least 2 of the pitching categories at minimum.

My scorned heart hopes for Colin to win this thing.  Colin's got a wedding coming up and the guy needs this check.  But I said that the winner of the Kurt-Richie matchup would take it all, and I'm a man of my word.  Kurt wins, 2-1-7, setting up a first-ever Kurt-Jarrett finals.  

The legend of the stat correction grows.  

9/11.  Never Forget.

2015 Playoff Probabilities

This is a re-post of last year's blog with updated numbers.

Congratulations!  You made it to the playoffs.  It was a long hard road filled with adversity and struggle, but you drafted and managed your way into a chance at the Chalice.  As we all know, the Head to Head matchup style can be cruel and unforgiving.  In 2005, Ben put on the greatest display of managing in league history.  His 144 wins and .666 winning percentage still stand as the greatest display of prolonged dominance this league has seen.  And despite finishing 34.5 games ahead of his first round opponent, he went 0-2 in the playoffs and didn't even cash.  It may not be fair, but god damnit it’s exciting.  As you would expect, Ben’s experience is not typical.  In the 12 years of Yahoo! documented league history…….

The #1 seed has gone on to win the Chalice six times (Adrian ‘03, Colin ‘04, James ‘07, Kurt ‘12, Ben ‘13, Richie '14), while no other seed has done it more than twice.  And with only two losses (Adrian ‘06, Ben ‘10), the #1 seed has by far the best record in the title game.  With the most championships, you could argue that the #1 seed has been the most successful seed.  An argument could be made for…….

The #2 seed, but with only one championship (Adrian ‘08), it’s easy to discount them.  If you’re in it for the money, however, this is where you want to be.  With a disappointing four losses in championship games (Alex ‘03, James ‘05, Ben ‘07, Alex ‘12) but a dominating 6-1 record in the consolation game (Richie ‘04, Jarrett ‘06, Colin ‘09, Alex ‘10, TJ ‘11, James ‘13), the #2 seed has cashed in every single season except one (Jarrett, 2014).  Overall, more than 80% of the teams that earned a bye have finished in the money, which is a figure that declines sharply once you hit………..

The #3 seed, where less than half (42%) have cashed.  Despite that figure, the #3 seed is the most lucrative non-bye seed.  We've seen two champions come out of this starting gate (Ben ‘06, Drew ‘09), which is tied for second-most. The numbers are similar for…………….

The #4 seed, who has also gotten paid 42% of the time.  This seed represents the most non-bye championship appearances (four); two winners (Alex ‘05, Kurt ‘11) and two losers (Richie ‘08, James ‘09).  #4 seeds have not fared well in the consolation game capturing just one win (Colin '14) against three losses (Richie ‘03, TJ ‘10, Alex ‘13).  The seed you must avoid at all costs is…………..

The #5 seed, who’s 8% cash rate makes it by far and away the least lucrative playoff seed in history.  With zero trips to the finals and one third place finish (Kurt ‘07), there’s no doubt this is the cement-shoe seed.  #5 seeds are 4-8 in the first round of the playoffs, meaning two-thirds of their seasons end in the dreaded, pointless double consolation game.  If we had kept the buy-in standard over the last 12 years, the #5 seed would have won 1% of it. It’s amazing how much better it’s been to be…………..

The #6 seed, who’s one championship (James ‘10) and 42% cash rate is far more attractive.  Sure, they've taken their lumps; they've come in last more than any other seed (50%), but with three second-place finishes (Alex ‘04, Ben ‘11, Ben '14) and a cash back third (Colin '03), it’s not all that bad.  Plus, you’re automatically the Cinderella story that everyone roots for.  Sot you got that goin’ for you, which is nice.  But of course if you can’t read, there’s always this:

	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	$$$	Share
1 Seed	50%	17%	8%	25%	NA	NA	75%	36%
2 Seed	8%	33%	50%	8%	NA	NA	92%	20%
3 Seed	17%	8%	17%	17%	33%	8%	42%	14%
4 Seed	17%	17%	8%	25%	25%	8%	42%	16%
5 Seed	0%	0%	8%	25%	33%	33%	8%	1%
6 Seed	8%	25%	8%	0%	8%	50%	42%	13%

Season Wrap-Up and Playoff Preview

Imagine going to a movie.  A really, really long movie.  And the ticket is $200.  And 80% of the way through it, you start to feel that 64oz soda in your bladder.  You try to make it but you have to pull the chord and take care of business.  You miss 10% of the movie, and unfortunately for you there was some amazing shit that happened.  You haven’t missed the best part, but you missed some critical moments.

That’s what happened to The Commissioner’s Corner this year.  Here’s what we missed over the final weeks of the season:

Week 20:  TJ jumps up to first place for the first time since week 14, Jarrett is close behind in 3rd.  Kurt leapfrogs Richie for 4th place; James starts his playoff push and moves from 9th to 8th.  TJ holds onto the belt with a dominant 9-0 victory over Ben and misses the shutout by one strikeout.

Week 21:  Jarrett crushes Adrian and jumps over Colin and TJ for 1st place.  Kurt takes the belt from TJ and becomes the first ever Rumble champion with a victory over Richie.  TJ drops to 3rd place.  James dominates Tim in a match up that was vital to his playoff survival; he is now 1.5 games behind Tim for the final spot with 9th place Ben on the docket for week 22.

Week 22:  In the season finale, Colin takes down TJ 7-3 and locks in his first regular season crown in 11 years.  A Yahoo! stat correction shakes the playoff picture like a snow globe as Richie’s 10-0 win is downgraded to an 8-0 win, which puts the following wheels in motion:

• Jarrett jumps up to #2
• TJ falls back to #3
• Kurt jumps up to #4
• Richie falls back to #5

Not to be forgotten, James does all he can and finishes with an 8-2 mark again Ben.  Tim does not waiver and tops him with an 8-1 mark over Adrian, protecting his place in the playoffs.  Kurt beats Alex 7-3 and wins the WWE belt.

Here are some other notes from the 2015 regular season:

• The top 6 teams did not change since week 16; the top 3 teams did not change since week 11.
• Colin captures his second-ever regular season crown.  His first was in 2004, when he won his only championship.
• Colin posts the 13th best record in league history, by wins and winning percentage.  It’s his second-best season ever (4 wins shy of his 2004 campaign).
• After missing the playoffs in a league-record 4 consecutive seasons, Jarrett has become the first franchise in league history to earn bye weeks in back to back seasons.
• Jarrett posts his second-best season in franchise history and finishes the regular season in second-place for a record third time.
• TJ finishes in 3rd place for the third time in franchise history; the others were in 2004 (finished in 5th) and 2013 (finished in 2nd).
• TJ started the season with a 9-1-2 weekly record; he finished with a 4-4-1 over his final 9 contests.
• TJ successfully defended the belt in 14 of his 16 Belt matches.  He earned $0 for this achievement.
• TJ won his 1400th category in the season finale.
• Kurt finishes in 4th for the third time in franchise history;  the others were in 2006 (finished in 5th) and 2011 (finished in 1st).
• Kurt’s 113 wins are the second-most for a 4h place team behind Alex’s 119 mark from 2013.
• After failing in his first two attempts, Kurt went 2-0 in the final two weeks and won his first ever WWE belt.
• Richie finishes in 5th place for the first time in franchise history.  
• Richie’s 112 wins and .539 winning percentage are league records for a 5th place team.
• Richie won his first ever WWE Belt at midseason.
• Tim becomes just the second non-founding manager to make the playoffs in his first season (Kyle Zapcic, the other manager, lost both playoff matches in his only season).
• Tim’s 106 wins are best all-time by a first year non-founding manager.
• Tim has moved past Zapcic for 12th on the all-time wins list.
• James finishes in 7th place and misses the post-season for the first time in 3 years.
• Staring at a 14 game deficit at the start of week 18, James went 33-12-5 over the final 5 weeks and shaved off 12 of those 14 games.  He missed the playoffs by 2 games.
• Alex finishes in 8th place and misses the post-season for the first time in five years.
• Alex’s 93 wins are the second-worst total in franchise history, ahead of his 82-win total in 2007.
• Ben finishes in 9th place and misses the post-season for the first time in seven seasons.
• Ben’s 89 wins is his lowest mark since 2003, when he won 80 games and finished in 10th.
• Ben became the first manager to 1400 career wins in week 19.
• Adrian finishes in 10th place and misses the post-season for a record-tying 4th consecutive season.
• Adrian’s 62-149-9, .302 record is the worst in league history by any measure.  This marks the second season in a row that the league has seen a team set record lows in wins and winning percentage, and a record high in losses.
• Adrian won only 2 weeks this season, both by a 5-4-1 score.  This is a record for fewest weekly wins in league history.

With an empty bladder, you find your seat in the movie theatre and strap in for the best part of the movie - the playoffs!!

The parity in this league is like no other.  We’ve crowned a first-time champion in nine of our thirteen postseasons, and Tim and Jarrett are both threats to make that ten out of fourteen.  We have a diverse post-season population in this year’s edition that displays almost every level of playoff experience, success, and failure.  We’ll take a look at each team’s playoff history and the road that lies before them in this mega blog.  

Obviously with Tim’s introduction to the league this will be the first time in league history that these six managers have made it to the playoffs in the same season.  If you take Tim out of the equation, this will be the second time these five managers have made it to the same post-season.  That was the 2008 season, which finished thusly:

Champion - (#2) Adrian

Runner-up - (#4) Richie

3rd - (#1) Kurt

4th - (#3) Colin

5th - (#5) TJ

6th - (#6) Jarrett

Oh how the mighty have fallen.  2008 remains the only time a #2 seed took home the title.

Overall, these six managers only hold five of the thirteen titles but they do have three of the last four (Kurt 2011, 2012, Richie 2014).

First, a little playoff history for the final 6:

#1 seed - Colin checks in with his 9th playoff appearance in franchise history and a 10-10 playoff record.  This is his 5th consecutive post-season, extending his career-best streak.  He won the title in 2004 but it’s been a rocky road in the 10 years since, posting a 6-9 record and no finals appearances.

#2 seed - Jarrett clinched his 6th playoff appearance this season but his 3-8 postseason record amounts to the worst playoff winning percentage in the league (min. 3 games, Kyle Zapcic went 0-2 in his only season).  It’s been a long road to hoe for Jarrett, who missed the playoffs for four consecutive seasons before last year’s appearance.  Jarrett has never made it to a league final.

#3 seed - TJ is making his 10th playoff appearance in franchise history - good for second-most in league history - but carries a disappointing 8-12 mark.  He has a career record of 2-5 in the first round of the playoffs. To his credit, all of these stats I’m spitting out at you do not include 2002, TJ’s only championship year.  Geers returns to the playoffs after a one year absence that snapped his league-record 7 straight playoff appearances.  A 2013 runner-up finish was his only finals appearance since the 2002 title.

#4 seed - Kurt qualifies for the DD postseason for a record 11th time and, as you may expect, has the most playoff wins (13) of any manager in league history.  He has a career record of 4-4 in the first round of the playoffs. This is his first playoff appearance since 2013, where he finished in 5th place.  Kurt is the only manager to win back to back Chalices and would be the first franchise to win a third championship, should he run the gauntlet.

#5 seed - Richie enters his 8th postseason this year and has a 9-8 record to show for it.  He has a career record of 3-2 in the first round of the playoffs. This is just the second time in his career that he’s made the playoffs in back to back seasons, the other instance spanning the 2003-04 campaigns.  Richie took home his first league title last year and would be just the second manager to win back to back Chalices.

#6 seed - Tim becomes just the second manager in the expansion era (2003-present) to make the playoffs in his first season; Kyle was the other (Chuck, Drew, Jarrett, Jason, and Paul all missed in their first seasons.)

And so goes the Ghosts of Playoffs past.  “But Richie, I just joined the league this year; I don’t care about all of this shit.”

Well Tim, fuckin’ asshole, here’s a look at the present and future:

Bye, Bye, Bye - Colin (#1) and Jarrett (#2)

#3 vs #6 - The Tussle of the Tim’s - Geers hosts McGrail in their first ever meeting in the playoffs.  In three regular season matches, TJ edged Tim 5-4 in week 1 and the other two matches ended in 5-5 ties.  Tim won big last week while TJ faltered, but if the two played eachother TJ would have coasted to a 6-2-2 victory.  

Both teams can bring the lumber and have put up some big numbers in recent weeks, but McGrail lost his #2 HR/RBI guy when it was announced Mark Teixeira would miss the rest of the season with a fractured shin.  

While the offenses slug it out, I think this one will be won on the mound.  Geers holds an enormous edge in season W and K totals which leads me to believe he will take those without a fight.  McGrail boasts the league’s best ERA and WHIP but those can be extremely volatile.  I don’t expect Tim’s closers to be able to hang with TJ’s elite options, giving TJ at least 3 wins on the bump, giving TJ the clear edge in this match up with the tie-breaker in hand.

Prediction:  TJ beats Tim 5-4-1

#4 vs #5 - Two Fuckin' Studs - Kurt and Richie square off for the 6th time in post-season history:

Year	Round	Result
2003	first round	Richie (4) def. Kurt (5) 8-2
2004	consolation	Richie (2) def. Kurt (5) 7-3
2006	dbl consolation	Kurt (4) def. Richie (6) 8-1
2008	semi-finals	Richie (4) def. Kurt (1) 6-4
2010	dbl consolation	Richie (3) def. Kurt (5) 5-4

Like the other playoff matchup, these teams have faced off three times this season.  Richie took the first two games, 6-4 and 7-3, but Kurt took the week 20 decision by a 6-4 mark.  Add in the Rumble finals and it squares the season series at two games apice.  

Kurt has looked especially sharp and finds himself in the midst of a 4 week winning streak, with the first three wins coming against playoff teams.  Richie closed the season with a 16-11-3 record despite dropping 2 of 3, all against playoff teams.

Offensively, Kurt and Richie are neck and neck.  They have almost identical R and AVG.  Kurt has more HR, Richie has more RBI, and they are tied in SB, though Dee Gordon is the only player on either roster who can win the category singlehandedly.  Both offenses are relatively healthy.

Kurt has the edge on the mound, with better marks in each of the 5 pitching categories.  Gottschalk gets a huge bump with a double start week from Cy Young hopeful Sonny Gray, while Richie’s trade-deadline acquisition of Johnny Cueto has been a monumental disaster.

Important to note that the Yahoo! stat correction gave Kurt the tiebreaker over Richie.

Prediction:  My bias doesn’t allow me to pick this one fairly; therefore I will state the obvious that the winner of this match will win the championship.