The Commissioner's Corner - Week 15

League News

The All-Star break is upon us!  First-place Colin won the Home Run Derby game, TJ finally loses (yes!), but everyone outside the top 2 maintain their positions.  With the trade deadline just 33 days away, the next 4 weeks will dictate the trade market and may decide who walks away with the chalice in 2015.  Kurt is too sexy to handle.

The best option for the Red Sox game is Friday, July 31 vs Tampa Bay.  Unfortunately TJ or I can't make it, but I encourage you guys to go.  Or don't.  

Milestones and Historical Perspective

Richie and Jarrett cracked 1,300 career wins last week.  Ben remains on pace to be the first manager to crack 1,400 wins, possibly by the end of this month.

Hey, look at this!

This is our brand new segment called "Hey, look at this!" where I find mildly interesting stats and present them to you in a way that may or may not mildly interest you.

We have an extended week this week, so this TCC is a little more dense than most.  

About a month ago I introduced The Luck Factor.  It's not perfect but what is in this world, besides Helga Lovekaty.  Well for special occasions like this, I like to take it one step higher.  

WARNING - lots of numbers ahead!

First, we have team luck:

Sorted by projected w% based on team stats							Sorted from luckiest to unluckiest
	Pos	Manager	Proj W%	Act W%	Variance		Pos	Manager	Proj W%	Act W%	Variance
	2	TJ	0.633	0.582	-0.051		3	Jarrett	0.477	0.546	0.070
	1	Colin	0.620	0.607	-0.013		5	Tim	0.484	0.514	0.030
	4	Kurt	0.551	0.518	-0.034		6	Ben	0.466	0.493	0.027
T	5	Tim	0.484	0.514	0.030	T	7	Richie	0.467	0.486	0.018
E	9	Alex	0.483	0.446	-0.037	E	8	James	0.445	0.461	0.016
A	3	Jarrett	0.477	0.546	0.070	A	1	Colin	0.620	0.607	-0.013
M	7	Richie	0.467	0.486	0.018	M	10	Adrian	0.374	0.347	-0.027
	6	Ben	0.466	0.493	0.027		4	Kurt	0.551	0.518	-0.034
	8	James	0.445	0.461	0.016		9	Alex	0.483	0.446	-0.037
	10	Adrian	0.374	0.347	-0.027		2	TJ	0.633	0.582	-0.051

And the offense:

Sorted by projected w% based on team stats							Sorted from luckiest to unluckiest
	Pos	Manager	Proj W%	Act W%	Variance		Pos	Manager	Proj W%	Act W%	Variance
	1	Colin	0.594	0.564	-0.030		5	Tim	0.522	0.607	0.085
O	2	TJ	0.576	0.550	-0.025	O	3	Jarrett	0.484	0.557	0.073
F	8	James	0.524	0.529	0.005	F	7	Richie	0.503	0.557	0.054
F	5	Tim	0.522	0.607	0.085	F	8	James	0.524	0.529	0.005
E	9	Alex	0.516	0.507	-0.009	E	9	Alex	0.516	0.507	-0.009
N	7	Richie	0.503	0.557	0.054	N	4	Kurt	0.454	0.436	-0.018
S	3	Jarrett	0.484	0.557	0.073	S	6	Ben	0.441	0.422	-0.019
E	4	Kurt	0.454	0.436	-0.018	E	2	TJ	0.576	0.550	-0.025
	6	Ben	0.441	0.422	-0.019		1	Colin	0.594	0.564	-0.030
	10	Adrian	0.387	0.271	-0.115		10	Adrian	0.387	0.271	-0.115

And defense: 

Sorted by projected w% based on team stats							Sorted from luckiest to unluckiest
	Pos	Manager	Proj W%	Act W%	Variance		Pos	Manager	Proj W%	Act W%	Variance
	2	TJ	0.690	0.614	-0.076		6	Ben	0.491	0.564	0.073
D	4	Kurt	0.649	0.600	-0.049	D	3	Jarrett	0.469	0.536	0.067
E	1	Colin	0.647	0.650	0.003	E	10	Adrian	0.361	0.422	0.060
F	6	Ben	0.491	0.564	0.073	F	8	James	0.366	0.393	0.027
E	3	Jarrett	0.469	0.536	0.067	E	1	Colin	0.647	0.650	0.003
N	9	Alex	0.450	0.386	-0.064	N	7	Richie	0.432	0.414	-0.017
S	5	Tim	0.446	0.421	-0.025	S	5	Tim	0.446	0.421	-0.025
E	7	Richie	0.432	0.414	-0.017	E	4	Kurt	0.649	0.600	-0.049
	8	James	0.366	0.393	0.027		9	Alex	0.450	0.386	-0.064
	10	Adrian	0.361	0.422	0.060		2	TJ	0.690	0.614	-0.076

And finally, by all 10 categories:

EXPECTED WINNING PERCENTAGE PER CATEGORY
	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	W	SV	K	ERA	WHIP
Adrian	0.365	0.345	0.386	0.420	0.418	0.319	0.377	0.360	0.336	0.414
Tim	0.529	0.578	0.611	0.339	0.552	0.288	0.425	0.215	0.725	0.578
Ben	0.454	0.407	0.431	0.434	0.478	0.566	0.360	0.491	0.523	0.512
Jarrett	0.448	0.368	0.486	0.650	0.470	0.443	0.198	0.555	0.602	0.545
James	0.541	0.508	0.496	0.542	0.534	0.257	0.409	0.318	0.376	0.471
Alex	0.525	0.624	0.584	0.339	0.507	0.566	0.539	0.510	0.260	0.373
Colin	0.556	0.593	0.519	0.772	0.530	0.566	0.994	0.698	0.464	0.512
Richie	0.519	0.500	0.527	0.447	0.522	0.443	0.117	0.552	0.526	0.520
TJ	0.553	0.578	0.531	0.731	0.485	0.644	1.026	0.666	0.578	0.537
Kurt	0.511	0.500	0.429	0.325	0.504	0.906	0.555	0.634	0.610	0.537
ACTUAL WINNING PERCENTAGE PER CATEGORY
	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	W	SV	K	ERA	WHIP
Adrian	0.321	0.214	0.143	0.536	0.143	0.429	0.393	0.357	0.429	0.500
Tim	0.607	0.464	0.750	0.429	0.786	0.357	0.536	0.000	0.643	0.571
Ben	0.429	0.214	0.429	0.536	0.500	0.607	0.429	0.571	0.643	0.571
Jarrett	0.536	0.571	0.607	0.429	0.643	0.536	0.357	0.714	0.500	0.571
James	0.786	0.607	0.429	0.321	0.500	0.357	0.393	0.286	0.429	0.500
Alex	0.393	0.571	0.607	0.464	0.500	0.500	0.607	0.536	0.214	0.071
Colin	0.536	0.679	0.464	0.714	0.429	0.607	0.714	0.786	0.500	0.643
Richie	0.321	0.714	0.714	0.464	0.571	0.357	0.143	0.429	0.643	0.500
TJ	0.607	0.500	0.429	0.786	0.429	0.500	0.929	0.714	0.429	0.500
Kurt	0.464	0.464	0.429	0.321	0.500	0.750	0.500	0.607	0.571	0.571
WINNING PERCENTAGE VARIANCE
	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	W	SV	K	ERA	WHIP
Adrian	-0.044	-0.131	-0.243	0.116	-0.275	0.110	0.016	-0.003	0.093	0.086
Tim	0.078	-0.114	0.139	0.090	0.234	0.069	0.111	-0.215	-0.082	-0.007
Ben	-0.025	-0.193	-0.002	0.102	0.022	0.041	0.069	0.080	0.120	0.059
Jarrett	0.088	0.203	0.121	-0.221	0.173	0.093	0.159	0.159	-0.102	0.026
James	0.245	0.099	-0.067	-0.221	-0.034	0.100	-0.016	-0.032	0.053	0.029
Alex	-0.132	-0.053	0.023	0.125	-0.007	-0.066	0.068	0.026	-0.046	-0.302
Colin	-0.020	0.086	-0.055	-0.058	-0.101	0.041	-0.280	0.088	0.036	0.131
Richie	-0.198	0.214	0.187	0.017	0.049	-0.086	0.026	-0.123	0.117	-0.020
TJ	0.054	-0.078	-0.102	0.055	-0.056	-0.144	-0.097	0.048	-0.149	-0.037
Kurt	-0.047	-0.036	0.000	-0.004	-0.004	-0.156	-0.055	-0.027	-0.039	0.034

I've highlighted the areas of extreme luck in both directions.  We have four instances where managers have enjoyed a winning percentage in that category far above (greater than .200) what they deserve.  For example, Tim's league-best 11-3 record in the average really should be more like 8-6.   On the flip side, Alex's league-worst 1-13 record in WHIP should really be more like 5-11, despite his league-worst 1.38 mark.  A quick blurb on each team:

• Adrian, by these metrics, has the worst offense AND defense.  To compound that, he's been dreadfully unlucky - especially on offense - which speaks to his abysmal .271 winning percentage on that side of the ball.
• Alex, as mentioned above, has the worst luck of anyone in any category with that unsightly 1-13 record in WHIP, though he still deserves to be well under .500 there.  He has the 5th best projected winning percentage.
• Ben checks in with a mediocre defense and a pretty bad offense, but he's had luck on his side.  His winning percentage in all 5 pitching categories is bloated, most notably a 9-5 record in ERA despite carrying basically an average mark (3.59, league average 3.67).
• Colin sits in first place and is actually a little snake bit.  He and TJ have run away from the pack in saves, but Colin is just 9-3-2 in that category.  He's had the best WHIP luck thus far and seems to boast the best overall offense per his stats so far.
• James has been a little lucky this year but his record basically reflects his talent appropriately (sorry Mams).  His 11-3 record in Runs is the luckiest record of any category under any manager, but his 4-9-1 record in SB is a tough pill to swallow considering he's above the league average in that category.
• Jarrett should be fighting for a playoff spot with the rest of us peasants, but sometimes it's better to be lucky than good.  The luckiest man alive has a stronghold on third place and may have bought himself enough breathing room to survive any regression coming his way.
• Kurt hasn't been able to string many consecutive wins together, but the stats indicate he is due for a run.  Despite a league-best 10-3-1 record in Wins, the stats indicate he should be even better, pushing for 12 or even 13 Wins wins.  Fun fact - Kurt's variance in the RBI category is .000 - the only manager to be in perfect balance with a category.
• Richie, much to his chagrin, cannot play the unlucky card any more.  He's projected to be in 7th, he's actually in 7th, and that's pretty much the team he's been all season.  He's had the most luck league-wide in the HR category, where his league-best 9-3-2 mark flies in the face of his exact league average (129) HR output.
• Tim is somewhat similar to the commissioner in that he's just about where he should be overall, but they take very different roads to get there.  He's overachieved more than any team offensively, with his variance close to +.100.  He's nearly balanced out with his bad luck on the mound, but he still holds a bit of beginner's luck in his first season.
• TJ has a pretty incredible story, sitting in second place despite having the worst luck in the DD thus far.  I fear this next statement might undermine the validity of this analysis but it must be said; I don't know how TJ has an expected winning percentage of 1.026 in saves.  He's leading the league by such a far margin he may have broken my system, and that may be contributing to some of his "bad" luck.  But there's too much good stuff in here to abandon the concept altogether.  I will point out that TJ's projected team winning percentage would be second-best in league history.

Incentives

WWE Belt

Payouts: $50 at the All-Star Break (week 15), $75 at the end of the regular season

Belt holder:  Richie!

And we come full circle.  10 weeks after losing the belt to TJ, Richie wins it back from him with a 7-3 score and the first WWE Belt payout.  I like to think of it as good karma for the TCC's.  Next stop, playoffs!

Shutout Pool

Week 15 pot: $45

Nobody wanted it in week 14.  On to the next one.

Neighborhood Rumble

Kurt laid out the rules earlier today.  Tournament starts Friday, head to head kicks in at week 16. Good luck everyone!  Adrian, wake up!  You have something to play for again!

Payouts:  $25 to the Islington and Westwood champion, $50 to the Tournament champ