The Commissioner's Corner - Week 16

League News

Jarrett picked up a catcher, the Neighborhood Rumble is underway and with the trade deadline 17 days away the next two weeks will be vital in determining who's a seller and who's a buyer.   

Milestones and Historical Perspective

Tim (75-67-8) is one win away from tying Paul French on the career wins list.  At this point in his only season, Paul had 57 wins which would put him in 9th in today's standings.

Hey, look at this!

This is our brand new segment called "Hey, look at this!" where I find mildly interesting stats and present them to you in a way that may or may not mildly interest you.

So we've had a little over a month of games to digest the luck idea.  Let's see if there's a pattern of regression, or if I wasted a ton of time doing this (note: many will claim that even if there is a pattern of regression I will have wasted my time and to that I say yeah you're probably right but you're reading a blog about fantasy baseball so go ahead and tell me how your life is so wild and interesting jerkoff):

Manager	Wk 11 W%	Variance	He was	Wk 16 W%	Expected record to	Record	Result
Jarrett	0.532	0.069	lucky	0.550	Worsen	Improved	Unexpected
James	0.459	0.031	lucky	0.450	Worsen	Worse	Expected
Tim	0.509	0.026	lucky	0.527	Worsen	Improved	Unexpected
Colin	0.641	0.023	lucky	0.613	Worsen	Worse	Expected
Ben	0.464	0.023	lucky	0.480	Worsen	Improved	Unexpected
Richie	0.5	0.014	unlucky	0.483	Worsen	Worse	Expected
Adrian	0.35	-0.007	unlucky	0.343	Improve	Worse	Unexpected
Alex	0.473	-0.044	unlucky	0.453	Improve	Worse	Unexpected
Kurt	0.505	-0.062	unlucky	0.530	Improve	Improved	Expected
TJ	0.568	-0.072	unlucky	0.570	Improve	Improved	Expected

5 trended as expected, 5 did not.  Hard to tell how much injuries play into this but so far, it's not quite as accurate as I'd hoped.  Curious to see what happens at the end of the year but I might be the only one.

Incentives

WWE Belt

Payouts: $50 at the All-Star Break (week 15), $75 at the end of the regular season

Belt holder:  Alex

Alex stole the Belt from Richie on a true buzzer beater, nabbing a win from Sunday Night Baseball, tying the Wins category and resulting in a 5-4-1 victory.  I want to personally thank the Red Sox for winning that game, which I think is one of 3 wins over the last two weeks.  Great job guys.

Shutout Pool

Week 15 pot: $45

Colin flirted with dominance again over James, but the week ended 7-3.  Kurt and Tim also put up 7 spots.

Neighborhood Rumble

Play in games are happening this week, starting up full force on Monday.  Super excited for this!

Payouts:  $25 to the Islington and Westwood champion, $50 to the Tournament champ

Neighborhood Rumble Final Seeding and Round 1 Preview

The final seedings for the tournament are in the books and you can view them directly below the end of this sentence. Just kidding, its this sentence because I want to write "Pubes."

Islington:
1. Alex    38
2. Colin   37
2. Tim   36.5
4. Kurt    23.5
5. Adrian  15

Westwood
1. Jarrett   35.5
2. TJ   33
3.  Richie  29
4. James  27
5. Ben  25.5

Here's the breakdown if you want to check my math:

Alex and Jarrett grab the top spots in the tournament!  Congratulations to them.  Colin and Tim grab the two bye weeks, as Colin passes Tim in the late games after they were tied going in to Sunday night.  Kurt and Adrian, who squared off last week, will play eachother again Week 16 in the play-in game. 

TJ and Richie grab the final spots in the Westwood side, while Ben and James will face off in the play-in game.  After spending nearly all of Sunday in last place, James grabs the tiebreaker from a free-falling Ben in the play-in game. 

Excitement is abound.  Alex, whose team has been somewhat lackluster this year, proves this system works by grabbing the top seed in the Islington Division.  Big hugs to Alex next time I see him (2016 probably) for helping show why this midseason tournament is a good idea and why you should vote for it when we inevitably re-vote on all incentive based games for next season.  Here's the bracket:

Exciting times.  This week is week 16, so James and Ben and Kurt and Adrian square off in the play-in games.  Talk about parity!  The only four managers with multiple championships are relegated to the play-in games after disappointing Royal Rumble Weeks.  The Diamond Dynasty is great. 

Adrian comes into the matchup having not won since week 1.  Kurt comes in on  a 3 game winning streak.  Kurt has won both matchups this season by scores of 9-1 and 7-3.  The 7-3 matchup ended yesterday. 

James comes into his matchup with Ben having not won more than 3 categories in 3 weeks, going 9-19 in that span.  Ben had a modest two week winning streak snapped by Tim last week in a 7-3 loss.  Ben leads the season series against James, though they have both won one of their matchups.  Ben leads the season series 10-9.

The season is heating up.  In the next seven weeks we will have a midseason tournament to determine money, the title belt race to determine money and a trade deadline pool party at Richie's.  Then the playoffs begin.  It's a good time to be in the Diamond Dynasty!

 

 

Neighborhood Rumble Standings Update

30% of the "week" is in the books, here are your neighborhood rumble seeding standings as of Monday Morning.  Note that the seeding is done on a 5 team rotisserie score, top team in a category gets 5 points, bottom team gets 1. 

Islington:
1.  Alex (38.5)
2. Colin (37)
3. Tim  (31.5)
4. Kurt (22)
5. Adrian (21)

Westwood:
1. TJ (39)
2. James (35.5)
3. Jarrett (26.5)
4. Ben (25)
5. Richie (24)

Also, Jarrett isn't starting a catcher.  Since he doesn't chat, the best thing we can do is send him annoying terrible trade offers for catchers.  If I know Jarrett, he hates getting trade offers.  As he will likely decline Gattis for Kershaw, Kershaw should still be available for trade. 

The Commissioner's Corner - Week 15

League News

The All-Star break is upon us!  First-place Colin won the Home Run Derby game, TJ finally loses (yes!), but everyone outside the top 2 maintain their positions.  With the trade deadline just 33 days away, the next 4 weeks will dictate the trade market and may decide who walks away with the chalice in 2015.  Kurt is too sexy to handle.

The best option for the Red Sox game is Friday, July 31 vs Tampa Bay.  Unfortunately TJ or I can't make it, but I encourage you guys to go.  Or don't.  

Milestones and Historical Perspective

Richie and Jarrett cracked 1,300 career wins last week.  Ben remains on pace to be the first manager to crack 1,400 wins, possibly by the end of this month.

Hey, look at this!

This is our brand new segment called "Hey, look at this!" where I find mildly interesting stats and present them to you in a way that may or may not mildly interest you.

We have an extended week this week, so this TCC is a little more dense than most.  

About a month ago I introduced The Luck Factor.  It's not perfect but what is in this world, besides Helga Lovekaty.  Well for special occasions like this, I like to take it one step higher.  

WARNING - lots of numbers ahead!

First, we have team luck:

Sorted by projected w% based on team stats							Sorted from luckiest to unluckiest
	Pos	Manager	Proj W%	Act W%	Variance		Pos	Manager	Proj W%	Act W%	Variance
	2	TJ	0.633	0.582	-0.051		3	Jarrett	0.477	0.546	0.070
	1	Colin	0.620	0.607	-0.013		5	Tim	0.484	0.514	0.030
	4	Kurt	0.551	0.518	-0.034		6	Ben	0.466	0.493	0.027
T	5	Tim	0.484	0.514	0.030	T	7	Richie	0.467	0.486	0.018
E	9	Alex	0.483	0.446	-0.037	E	8	James	0.445	0.461	0.016
A	3	Jarrett	0.477	0.546	0.070	A	1	Colin	0.620	0.607	-0.013
M	7	Richie	0.467	0.486	0.018	M	10	Adrian	0.374	0.347	-0.027
	6	Ben	0.466	0.493	0.027		4	Kurt	0.551	0.518	-0.034
	8	James	0.445	0.461	0.016		9	Alex	0.483	0.446	-0.037
	10	Adrian	0.374	0.347	-0.027		2	TJ	0.633	0.582	-0.051

And the offense:

Sorted by projected w% based on team stats							Sorted from luckiest to unluckiest
	Pos	Manager	Proj W%	Act W%	Variance		Pos	Manager	Proj W%	Act W%	Variance
	1	Colin	0.594	0.564	-0.030		5	Tim	0.522	0.607	0.085
O	2	TJ	0.576	0.550	-0.025	O	3	Jarrett	0.484	0.557	0.073
F	8	James	0.524	0.529	0.005	F	7	Richie	0.503	0.557	0.054
F	5	Tim	0.522	0.607	0.085	F	8	James	0.524	0.529	0.005
E	9	Alex	0.516	0.507	-0.009	E	9	Alex	0.516	0.507	-0.009
N	7	Richie	0.503	0.557	0.054	N	4	Kurt	0.454	0.436	-0.018
S	3	Jarrett	0.484	0.557	0.073	S	6	Ben	0.441	0.422	-0.019
E	4	Kurt	0.454	0.436	-0.018	E	2	TJ	0.576	0.550	-0.025
	6	Ben	0.441	0.422	-0.019		1	Colin	0.594	0.564	-0.030
	10	Adrian	0.387	0.271	-0.115		10	Adrian	0.387	0.271	-0.115

And defense: 

Sorted by projected w% based on team stats							Sorted from luckiest to unluckiest
	Pos	Manager	Proj W%	Act W%	Variance		Pos	Manager	Proj W%	Act W%	Variance
	2	TJ	0.690	0.614	-0.076		6	Ben	0.491	0.564	0.073
D	4	Kurt	0.649	0.600	-0.049	D	3	Jarrett	0.469	0.536	0.067
E	1	Colin	0.647	0.650	0.003	E	10	Adrian	0.361	0.422	0.060
F	6	Ben	0.491	0.564	0.073	F	8	James	0.366	0.393	0.027
E	3	Jarrett	0.469	0.536	0.067	E	1	Colin	0.647	0.650	0.003
N	9	Alex	0.450	0.386	-0.064	N	7	Richie	0.432	0.414	-0.017
S	5	Tim	0.446	0.421	-0.025	S	5	Tim	0.446	0.421	-0.025
E	7	Richie	0.432	0.414	-0.017	E	4	Kurt	0.649	0.600	-0.049
	8	James	0.366	0.393	0.027		9	Alex	0.450	0.386	-0.064
	10	Adrian	0.361	0.422	0.060		2	TJ	0.690	0.614	-0.076

And finally, by all 10 categories:

EXPECTED WINNING PERCENTAGE PER CATEGORY
	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	W	SV	K	ERA	WHIP
Adrian	0.365	0.345	0.386	0.420	0.418	0.319	0.377	0.360	0.336	0.414
Tim	0.529	0.578	0.611	0.339	0.552	0.288	0.425	0.215	0.725	0.578
Ben	0.454	0.407	0.431	0.434	0.478	0.566	0.360	0.491	0.523	0.512
Jarrett	0.448	0.368	0.486	0.650	0.470	0.443	0.198	0.555	0.602	0.545
James	0.541	0.508	0.496	0.542	0.534	0.257	0.409	0.318	0.376	0.471
Alex	0.525	0.624	0.584	0.339	0.507	0.566	0.539	0.510	0.260	0.373
Colin	0.556	0.593	0.519	0.772	0.530	0.566	0.994	0.698	0.464	0.512
Richie	0.519	0.500	0.527	0.447	0.522	0.443	0.117	0.552	0.526	0.520
TJ	0.553	0.578	0.531	0.731	0.485	0.644	1.026	0.666	0.578	0.537
Kurt	0.511	0.500	0.429	0.325	0.504	0.906	0.555	0.634	0.610	0.537
ACTUAL WINNING PERCENTAGE PER CATEGORY
	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	W	SV	K	ERA	WHIP
Adrian	0.321	0.214	0.143	0.536	0.143	0.429	0.393	0.357	0.429	0.500
Tim	0.607	0.464	0.750	0.429	0.786	0.357	0.536	0.000	0.643	0.571
Ben	0.429	0.214	0.429	0.536	0.500	0.607	0.429	0.571	0.643	0.571
Jarrett	0.536	0.571	0.607	0.429	0.643	0.536	0.357	0.714	0.500	0.571
James	0.786	0.607	0.429	0.321	0.500	0.357	0.393	0.286	0.429	0.500
Alex	0.393	0.571	0.607	0.464	0.500	0.500	0.607	0.536	0.214	0.071
Colin	0.536	0.679	0.464	0.714	0.429	0.607	0.714	0.786	0.500	0.643
Richie	0.321	0.714	0.714	0.464	0.571	0.357	0.143	0.429	0.643	0.500
TJ	0.607	0.500	0.429	0.786	0.429	0.500	0.929	0.714	0.429	0.500
Kurt	0.464	0.464	0.429	0.321	0.500	0.750	0.500	0.607	0.571	0.571
WINNING PERCENTAGE VARIANCE
	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	W	SV	K	ERA	WHIP
Adrian	-0.044	-0.131	-0.243	0.116	-0.275	0.110	0.016	-0.003	0.093	0.086
Tim	0.078	-0.114	0.139	0.090	0.234	0.069	0.111	-0.215	-0.082	-0.007
Ben	-0.025	-0.193	-0.002	0.102	0.022	0.041	0.069	0.080	0.120	0.059
Jarrett	0.088	0.203	0.121	-0.221	0.173	0.093	0.159	0.159	-0.102	0.026
James	0.245	0.099	-0.067	-0.221	-0.034	0.100	-0.016	-0.032	0.053	0.029
Alex	-0.132	-0.053	0.023	0.125	-0.007	-0.066	0.068	0.026	-0.046	-0.302
Colin	-0.020	0.086	-0.055	-0.058	-0.101	0.041	-0.280	0.088	0.036	0.131
Richie	-0.198	0.214	0.187	0.017	0.049	-0.086	0.026	-0.123	0.117	-0.020
TJ	0.054	-0.078	-0.102	0.055	-0.056	-0.144	-0.097	0.048	-0.149	-0.037
Kurt	-0.047	-0.036	0.000	-0.004	-0.004	-0.156	-0.055	-0.027	-0.039	0.034

I've highlighted the areas of extreme luck in both directions.  We have four instances where managers have enjoyed a winning percentage in that category far above (greater than .200) what they deserve.  For example, Tim's league-best 11-3 record in the average really should be more like 8-6.   On the flip side, Alex's league-worst 1-13 record in WHIP should really be more like 5-11, despite his league-worst 1.38 mark.  A quick blurb on each team:

• Adrian, by these metrics, has the worst offense AND defense.  To compound that, he's been dreadfully unlucky - especially on offense - which speaks to his abysmal .271 winning percentage on that side of the ball.
• Alex, as mentioned above, has the worst luck of anyone in any category with that unsightly 1-13 record in WHIP, though he still deserves to be well under .500 there.  He has the 5th best projected winning percentage.
• Ben checks in with a mediocre defense and a pretty bad offense, but he's had luck on his side.  His winning percentage in all 5 pitching categories is bloated, most notably a 9-5 record in ERA despite carrying basically an average mark (3.59, league average 3.67).
• Colin sits in first place and is actually a little snake bit.  He and TJ have run away from the pack in saves, but Colin is just 9-3-2 in that category.  He's had the best WHIP luck thus far and seems to boast the best overall offense per his stats so far.
• James has been a little lucky this year but his record basically reflects his talent appropriately (sorry Mams).  His 11-3 record in Runs is the luckiest record of any category under any manager, but his 4-9-1 record in SB is a tough pill to swallow considering he's above the league average in that category.
• Jarrett should be fighting for a playoff spot with the rest of us peasants, but sometimes it's better to be lucky than good.  The luckiest man alive has a stronghold on third place and may have bought himself enough breathing room to survive any regression coming his way.
• Kurt hasn't been able to string many consecutive wins together, but the stats indicate he is due for a run.  Despite a league-best 10-3-1 record in Wins, the stats indicate he should be even better, pushing for 12 or even 13 Wins wins.  Fun fact - Kurt's variance in the RBI category is .000 - the only manager to be in perfect balance with a category.
• Richie, much to his chagrin, cannot play the unlucky card any more.  He's projected to be in 7th, he's actually in 7th, and that's pretty much the team he's been all season.  He's had the most luck league-wide in the HR category, where his league-best 9-3-2 mark flies in the face of his exact league average (129) HR output.
• Tim is somewhat similar to the commissioner in that he's just about where he should be overall, but they take very different roads to get there.  He's overachieved more than any team offensively, with his variance close to +.100.  He's nearly balanced out with his bad luck on the mound, but he still holds a bit of beginner's luck in his first season.
• TJ has a pretty incredible story, sitting in second place despite having the worst luck in the DD thus far.  I fear this next statement might undermine the validity of this analysis but it must be said; I don't know how TJ has an expected winning percentage of 1.026 in saves.  He's leading the league by such a far margin he may have broken my system, and that may be contributing to some of his "bad" luck.  But there's too much good stuff in here to abandon the concept altogether.  I will point out that TJ's projected team winning percentage would be second-best in league history.

Incentives

WWE Belt

Payouts: $50 at the All-Star Break (week 15), $75 at the end of the regular season

Belt holder:  Richie!

And we come full circle.  10 weeks after losing the belt to TJ, Richie wins it back from him with a 7-3 score and the first WWE Belt payout.  I like to think of it as good karma for the TCC's.  Next stop, playoffs!

Shutout Pool

Week 15 pot: $45

Nobody wanted it in week 14.  On to the next one.

Neighborhood Rumble

Kurt laid out the rules earlier today.  Tournament starts Friday, head to head kicks in at week 16. Good luck everyone!  Adrian, wake up!  You have something to play for again!

Payouts:  $25 to the Islington and Westwood champion, $50 to the Tournament champ