Wednesday, September 11, 2013

Weekly Match Ups - Week 23

Week 23's installment of the DDWPIPOTCFFBE – PE (Diamond Dynasty Weekly Preview In Pursuit Of The Chalice For Fantasy Baseball Excellence – PLAYOFF EDITION)

Last week – Ben and James hold on to the byes, TJ leapfrogs Alex for third (and changes the playoff picture in the process). Jarrett fizzles down the stretch and finishes on the outside looking in, Adrian's late season push falls short, and Drew out-sucks Richie for the 2013 Paul French Award.

After 22 weeks of fierce competition, the Diamond Dynasty finally has it's 6 playoff contestants in 2013. I first want to thank Sleepy's, Dell, Not You Average Joe's, Post-It, and Diamond for sponsoring the regular season match ups this year, and we look forward to continuing a mutually beneficial business relationship in the years ahead. I would also like to extend a congratulatory salute to Ben and James, who secured the bye weeks after a season-long showing of dominance. So without further adieu, the 2013 first round playoff match ups brought to you by:

                                      Destiny's Auto Sales Fulfill Your Destiny!

TJ (3rd) vs Kurt (6th) – The DL All-Stars vs the 6 win kid. To be honest, both teams are kind of limping into the playoffs. TJ was no worse than third place for essentially the entire year so he's proven that he's no fluke. But he's heading into the playoffs with Albert Pujols, Jose Bautista, and Matt Harvey on the DL. At this point in his career, Pujols is replacement level – the absence of the other two will be felt. TJ was 9-1-2 in the first 12 weeks but just 5-5 in the final 10 weeks with a 1-1 record against first round opponent Kurt. Despite his .486 winning percentage, The Commissioner had an 11-8-3 weekly record. He's only 2-6 in the last 8 weeks but the 10-week unbeaten streak should not be forgotten. His ability to squeak by, coupled with TJ's walking wounded, should make for a very close game. TJ beat Kurt 7-3 last week, but it easily could have been a 6-4 win for Kurt.

Season series: TJ 2-1 (17-12)

OFFENSE:

TJ finished in the top three in Runs, HR, and RBI but struggled in SB (10th) and BA (9th). The subtraction of Jose Bautista and Albert Pujols would presumably have the greatest effect in the three aforementioned strengths. Brandon Moss and Josh Donaldson have been top 40 players over the past month but it's hard to say how long they'll be able to keep that pace up. Jay Bruce is approaching 30 homers and seems to be heating up, if only a little. Kurt finished the year first in Runs and third in Average, but bottom third in RBI and SB. He is also facing some injury issues with Carlos Gonzalez unable to swing a bat and Bryce Harper at less than 100%. Recently, Shin Soo-Choo and Ian Desmond have been the leaders of the club and they have the talent to continue their level of play.

Edge – Kurt

PITCHING:

This is where it gets interesting. One man's strength is another man's weakness in most categories here. Kurt led the league in Wins and K's, but was last or second to last in Saves, ERA, and WHIP. TJ was top three in the latter three categories, but just middle of the pack in Wins and K's. TJ is already up 1-0 automatically as Kurt carries no closers, and he only needs to win 4 more categories as he possesses the tie breaker via home field advantage. A rotation without Matt Harvey is much less imposing (and those once strong ratios start to creep up as well). Even still, TJ has a guaranteed win and a big edge in two other categories.

Edge – TJ

Prediction: Really, really close one. But thanks to the home field advantage, TJ advances on a 4-4 tie.

Alex (4th) vs Colin (5th) – These two gentlemen were my pre-season first and second place picks, so I'm not surprised that they're battling for the 2013 crown. Alex is searching for his first win in three weeks (0-1-2), though he did have a four week winning streak before that. Conversely, Colin has played fairly well recently (3-2) following a 4 week losing streak. Gentilli is coming into the playoffs remarkably healthy, with no players on the DL. Colin cannot say the same, as Joe Mauer and Jason Heyward will not be able to go this week. But as we all know, Colin will sink or swim with the production of Miguel Cabrera and Mike Trout. Alex has the deeper team, but Colin's stars are a threat to outshine the competition.

P.S. - While I appreciate the humor, the team names “Please Cabrera” and “Cabrera Please” make this write-up extremely confusing. I am not smart enough to remember who is who.

Season series: Alex 2-0 (14-5)

OFFENSE:

Alex is a top four team in Runs, HR, RBI, and SB. He also has the odds-on favorite to win the NL MVP in Andrew McCutchen, who is one home run away from his third consecutive 20-20 season. It's tough to find even one under-performer in Alex's lineup as most of his players are ranked in the top 140. Colin, on the other hand, is more top-heavy than Pam Anderson. It's Cabrera and Trout, and then....Pablo Sandoval? Wil Myers? Now just a few weeks ago we saw Crout (I think I like Trabrera better) go off for 22/11/32/5/.400 in a two week span. If Colin can get that production, he has a chance. But Cabrera is hobbled and the Tigers are taking it easy with him down the stretch. At this time, Colin's top-heavy fantasy bosom consists of a DD and a B cup.

Edge – Alex

PITCHING:

Reviewing the team totals for the season, these guys are neck and neck right down the line. And with Colin picking up a few closers mid-way through the season, the Saves gap is wiped out for this week. You could argue Alex has slightly better elite talent, but Colin definitely has the deeper staff overall. Alex will be depending on Zack Greinke to keep the mojo working (top 10 in the last 30 days) to lead the staff. Beyond that he'll be looking to Francisco Liriano and Matt Moore to pick up the slack for an injured Felix Hernandez. Yahoo! says Felix will throw this weekend before the Mariners determine when he next start might be, which takes him out of Alex's match against Colin. Finally, Gentilli boasts a solid closer squad with Addison Reed, Edward Mujica, and Mark Melancon, who has apparently stolen the closer role from All-Star Jason Grilli since Grilli was forced to the DL. Colin has a great two-headed monster in Yu Darvish and Chris Sale, and Cole Hamels has bounced back in a huge way after a slow start (top 6 in the last 30 days). He fills in the rest of the rotation with solid arms and his closers (Koji Uehara, Glen Perkins, and Steve Cishek) are all dependable. A really interesting sub-plot of this match up will be the trade between these two managers on July 28, where Jean Segura and Kyle Lohse went to Alex for Chris Sale and Glen Perkins. In my opinion, it just fortified the strengths of each team. Colin's depth should win out here.

Edge – Colin

Prediction – The loss of Felix Hernandez handcuff's Alex's ability to compete on the rubber, but with a hobbled Miguel Cabrera, Colin can't keep up offensively. Alex takes this one, 6-4.

Nice Knowin' Ya

And now, a salute to the managers eliminated from their quest for the 2013 Diamond Dynasty Chalice for Fantasy Baseball Excellence:

Drew Donovan (10th) – Injuries to keepers and high draft picks is excusable. Bad adds and drops are expected. But what Drew did this year is the stuff that ruins fantasy leagues. Donovan failed to check (let alone update) his roster for DL's and under-performers. From May 9th to July 3rd – a stretch spanning and affecting 10 weeks – he failed to make any moves as he plunged deeper and deeper into last place. And when he finally did update his roster, he fucking won! Considering two teams made the playoffs with sub-.500 records, his 3-5-1 record in the last 9 weeks makes you think that had he not checked out in May he might have had a shot at the playoffs. Hope you enjoy the first pick next year, because you damn well don't deserve it.

Weeks 1-7: 0-6-1
Weeks 8-15: 2-5-1
Weeks 16-22: 1-5-1

Streaks:
    Wins: 2
    Unbeaten: 2
    Losses: 8
    Win-less: 13

Richie Travers (9th) – Richie has to be honest. Richie is dumbfounded that his team didn't challenge for a bye. Richie felt so good about his team and it just...ah....he doesn't know. Looking back on it, there's probably a reason why the phrase “career year” exists, and there's definitely a reason why you're not supposed to expect those guys to do it back to back. Richie's season effectively ended 8 picks into the 2013 draft, taking B.J. Upton in the first round. His offensive keepers were injured most of the year (Hanley Ramirez and Aramis Ramirez) or performed below expectations (Prince Fielder). His draft was riddled with mediocre picks like Ben Zobrist and Adam LaRoche as well as bad picks like Roy Halladay and Danny Espinosa. He hung in there as best he could but he fell out of contention by early August. Richie picked up three extra draft picks for next year but lost Felix Hernandez in the process, which makes his keeper situation a little cloudy.

Weeks 1-7: 0-5-2
Weeks 8-15: 2-5-1
Weeks 16-22: 1-3-3

Streaks:
    Wins: 2
    Unbeaten: 2
    Losses: 4
    Win-less: 8

Jarrett Staaf (8th) – Jarrett pushed harder than anyone this year to make the playoffs, trying to strike a deal with a number of managers to bolster his roster for the final weeks. He unfortunately dug himself too deep a hole in the middle of the season to get out of. The bottom line is 2013 Jarrett was nothing but a big bully. Check this out:

Record vs first-fourth place: 1-9-1
Record vs fifth-tenth place: 6-3-2

Record vs playoff teams: 3-11-2
Record vs non-playoff teams: 4-1-1

Now I would expect most of the teams to have good records against the non-playoff teams, but for a team to finish outside the playoffs despite dominating the bottom of the league is peculiar. Jarrett made a decent push toward the end of the year but just couldn't string wins together as he followed a win with a loss from weeks 13-21. He had a chance in the final week of the year as he played Colin straight up, but a 7-3 loss was the final nail in the coffin of Jarrett's 2013 season.

Weeks 1-7: 3-2-2
Weeks 8-15: 1-6-1
Weeks 16-22: 3-4

Streaks:
    Wins: 3
    Unbeaten: 4
    Losses: 4
    Win-less: 7

Adrian Macdonald (7th) – If memory serves me correctly (and I'm not too drunk yet), Adrian sat between 6th and 8th pretty much all year. He was never a big threat to anyone, but he was always within a few games of a playoff spot if he wasn't already in. A late-season 5 week win-less streak turned out to be a back breaker despite closing the year on a 3 week winning streak. He finished the year with only one pitcher in the top 100 (Cliff Lee, 30). A healthy Matt Kemp would have probably made up the 2.5 games that he needed to get to the playoffs, but Kemp was essentially useless all year.

Weeks 1-7: 3-2-2
Weeks 8-15: 2-5-1
Weeks 16-22: 3-3-1

Streaks:
    Wins: 3
    Unbeaten: 3
    Losses: 3
    Win-less: 5

Tuesday, September 3, 2013

Weekly Matchups - Week 22

Week 22's installment of the DDWPIPOTCFFBE (Diamond Dynasty Weekly Preview In Pursuit Of The Chalice For Fantasy Baseball Excellence)

Last week –Ben solidifies his hold on the regular season title, Adrian wins again to put himself on the brink of the playoffs,and Richie and Drew fight for first pick. Alex and TJ officially qualify for the playoffs, and heading into the last week of the regular season we have 4 teams (separated by just 5 games) battle for the final two playoff spots in a fantastic race to the finish.

Sleepy's® "Snoozer of the Week" – Richie (10th) vs Ben (1st)

It can't get more lopsided than this as last battles first in a mostly meaningless match-up. Barring a 10-0 loss, Ben will grab the regular season title and one of two coveted bye weeks. As everyone knows, anything can happen in head to head, so the less exposure in the playoffs the better. Ben was only one of two top-5 teams to win last week which gave him some breathing room on the bye. This does have some implications for the 2014 draft as Richie has a half game lead over Drew for last god damn place. After winning most of the week against Alex, Travers fell back to a 5-5 tie – not the worst outcome for a no lottery league.

(season series Ben 11-5)

Dell's® "Dull Duel" –James (2nd) vs Drew (9th)

Slightly less lopsided, James takes on Drew in another probable bloodbath. James has less of a hold on the second bye, with just a 3.5 game lead over Alex and a 5 game lead over TJ. A 6-4 win should guarantee an off week next week for Maimonis. Drew, like Richie, has a good shot at first pick next year as he is totally over matched in this one. He managed a 6-3 win over Kurt, hurting his chances for that first pick next year but keeping the integrity of the 2013 season in check (though he did much to ruin that integrity for basically the entire first half of the year). It's another match up that effects two races at once.

(season series James 14-4)

The Average Match of the Week presented by Not Your Average Joe's – Alex (3rd) vs Adrian (7th)

Shifting the focus completely to the 2013 finale, the last three match ups this week will go a long way in shaping the playoff picture. The first look is at Alex and Adrian, two teams that have come on very strong in the past month and are fighting for spots that seemed an impossibility just a month ago. Most impressive (for me) is Adrian's rise to the playoff discussion after dropping out of the top 6 over two months ago. He's 16-4 in the last fortnight and now sits just two games out of the playoffs! I all but wrote him off a few weeks ago after a 9-1 loss to Colin in week 19, but he has come storming back. He'll have a tough go of it this week though, as his opponent is proving to be one of the best teams in the league. Alex hasn't lost in 7 weeks, posting a 4-0-3 record over that span (albeit with a Kurt-like dominance). In his last lap through the league he's 5-1-3. The good play puts him 3.5 games behind James for the second bye but with Adrian playing so well (and James playing Drew) it's hard to imagine Alex being able to leapfrog James for second place. Adrian only needs Kurt or Colin to slip up to open the door for an improbable backdoor playoff spot, though that season series record against Alex does not bode well for the Marathon Man.

(season series Alex 16-2)

The Post-It® "Noteworthy Match-up" – Kurt (5th) vs TJ (4th)

TJ can't finish worse than 4th, and might slide up to 3rd with a good week. Either way, he's probably the most boring team this week (sorry bro). Kurt's season has been one of the strangest in recent memory. After getting burned by some seemingly bad luck early on, he ripped off a 10-week unbeaten streak and looked like one of the better teams in the league. Since then, he's just 2-5 with losses to Richie AND Drew (last week). Looking back on the aforementioned streak, he never posted more than 6 wins – in fact, he's only won 7 or more once all season. He still remains a threat with his consistent ability to take 6 categories, but his recent struggles have put his playoff spot in jeopardy.

(season series TJ 10-9)

Diamond Strike Anywhere Matches® "Match-Up of the Week" – Colin (6th) vs Jarrett (8th)

I didn't expect Adrian to push his way into the discussion and he might steal the spotlight here but this is the marquee match up of the week, and probably the season. With everything on the line in week 22, Colin and Jarrett square off in a win-or-go-home (sort of ) battle. Jarrett has gone win-loss-win-loss for 8 weeks in a row now...but he's due for a win after a loss last week! And after two huge wins over Richie and Adrian, Colin has dropped two in a row but retained the 6th spot. Jarrett starts this match up 2 games back and is the only non-playoff team that controls his own destiny (what more could you ask for, Jarrett!) And look at the previous two meetings between these two; a 9-0 win by Jarrett in week 4 and an 8-2 win by Colin in week 13. Apparently it's go big or go home with these two, which is exactly how it should be. Another great finish to another solid Diamond Dynasty regular season awaits! Playoff breakdown next week!

(season series Jarrett 11-8)

Tuesday, August 27, 2013

Weekly Matchups - Week 21

Week 21's installment of the DDWPIPOTCFFBE (Diamond Dynasty Weekly Preview In Pursuit Of The Chalice For Fantasy Baseball Excellence)

Last week – Adrian wins big to stay within shouting distance of the playoff, Kurt gets a few insurance games, and Ben and James are the first to officially punch their ticket to the playoffs

Sleepy's® "Snoozer of the Week" – Richie (9th) vs Alex (4th)

The 7-1 loss Richie took at the hands of TJ was closer than it appeared, with a number of close categories. Richie's pitching, the only thing that gave him any bit of competitiveness this season, has completely fallen off in the past few weeks. He's neck and neck with Drew for the first pick next season. Alex played Ben to a 5-5 tie last week and remains in striking distance of a bye. His outfield has been the backbone recently as Curtis Granderson, Andrew McCutchen, and Giancarlo Stanton are all ranked in the top 100 in the last two weeks. With two non-playoff teams left on the schedule, he's got a shot at closing the 3 game gap.

Richie's randomly generated percentage to make the playoffs – 0%

Alex's randomly generated percentage to make the playoffs – 100% and bye – 40%

(season series Alex 12-6)

Dell's® "Dull Duel" – Kurt (5th) vs Drew (10th)

So much for the cold streak. Kurt dominated last week on both sides of the ball in a 7-3 win over a streaking Colin. He hit 14 bombs and hit .328 to go with 7 wins and 104 K's. Evan Longoria was Kurt's savior once again, going deep 4 times and hitting .360. Carlos Beltran went deep 3 times too. The win gave him a little bit of breathing room in the playoff picture and he now has a 4.5 game cushion. His ticket to the playoff is right in front of him with Drew, and a big win will lock him in. Drew lost big last week, 9-1 to Adrian and is now 1 game ahead of Richie for next year's first pick.

Kurt's randomly generated percentage to make the playoffs – 89% and bye - 1%

Drew's randomly gener-hahahahaha

(season series)

The Average Match of the Week presented by Not Your Average Joe's – TJ (3rd) vs Adrian (8th)

TJ beat Richie 7-1 and leapfrogged Alex for 3rd place. He's 2.5 games behind James for the second bye but doesn't have an easy road back to the top. Over the last month he has 8 guys in the top 76 and 4 in the top 29, but the loss of Matt Harvey is a big one. He did have an innings limit but it wouldn't have come into play until approximately the finals, but it'll be a tough road without his golden boy. The most impressive week last week was Adrian, who's 9-1 win (albeit over Drew) put him back into contention after I just about wrote him off last week. It will still be really tough to make it as he's facing TJ this week and Alex next week, but the big win was exactly what he needed.

TJ's randomly generated percentage to make the playoffs – 100% and bye – 23%

Adrian's randomly generated percentage to make the playoffs – 9.4%

(season series TJ 13-7)

The Post-It® "Noteworthy Match-up" – James (2nd) vs Colin (6th)

James's streak finally came to an end last week against Jarrett. The 7-3 loss was a close one, as Jarrett stole a lot of the tight categories. But despite the loss, he has officially made the 2013 playoffs. He has a 2.5 game lead for the second bye and a favorable schedule ahead (Drew next week). With some help, he has a good chance at capturing the regular season crown. And call me crazy, but I think it would have been bad karma to carry a 16-week unbeaten streak into the post-season. If he kept it going, he would have needed an 18 or 19 week streak to capture the title for a third time, and I don't think that's happening. Colin dropped a 7-3decision to Kurt last week and is clinging to a half game lead over Jarrett, who he plays next week in what is sure to be an instant classic (I've had my eye on that match for weeks). A blowout for either team would severely impact the playoff picture.

James' randomly generated percentage to make the playoffs – 100% and bye – 85%

Colin's randomly generated percentage to make the playoffs - 55%

(season series Colin 12-8)

Diamond Strike Anywhere Matches® "Match-Up of the Week" – Ben (1st) vs Jarrett (7th)

Ben is in prime position to capture his first Diamond Dynasty regular season crown since 2010. He tied Colin 5-5 last week, has a 5 game lead for a bye, and he plays two current non-playoff teams to close the season (Richie next week). It would take a pretty epic collapse for him not to at least finish with a bye (jinxing powers activate!). On the other side, Jarrett is fighting for his playoff life. He grabbed a huge 7-3 win last week, closing the gap and giving him a last-ditch chance at a spot in the playoffs. Last two weeks, here we go!!

Ben's randomly generated percentage to make the playoffs – 100% and bye – 82.4%

Jarrett's randomly generated percentage to make the playoffs – 45%

(season series)

Tuesday, August 20, 2013

Weekly Matchups - Week 20

Week 20's installment of the DDWPIPOTCFFBE (Diamond Dynasty Weekly Preview In Pursuit Of The Chalice For Fantasy Baseball Excellence)

Last week – 4 blowouts drastically change the landscape with under a month to play in the regular season, and two teams bolster their roster for the playoff run as the trade deadline passes.  Who the hell called this season boring?

Sleepy's® "Snoozer of the Week" – Drew (9th) vs Adrian (8th)

It's an easy pick for the Snoozer of the week as Drew takes on Adrian in the only contest of non-playoff teams.  Drew is all but mathematically eliminated from post-season play after tying Richie 5-5.  Adrian was dealt a crushing blow to his playoff hopes in the form of a 9-1 thrashing at Colin's hands.  The Marathon Man had a putrid offensive effort at the worst possible time, posting only 5 homers, 24 RBI, and a .256 average - but even an above average week probably wouldn't have been enough against Colin last week.  The loss drops him 10.5 GB of the playoffs and with bye-week hopefuls TJ and Alex to close the season, Adrian's 2013 campaign is in grave danger.  Adrian has kicked ass against Drew this season but he'll need his biggest victory yet to get back into the playoff discussion.

(season series Adrian 14-4).

Dell's® "Dull Duel" – Richie (10th) vs TJ (4th)

Alfonso Soriano tied Drew last week 5-5 behind one of the most impressive fantasy weeks a mortal can have on the diamond.  His insane 9/5/18/2/.484 slash line is one rarely seen.  The output helped Richie take 3 categories on offense, but one of the season's worst pitching performances left Travers with just a 5-5 tie.  Richie had zero wins, just 34 strike outs, and a 6.23 ERA/1.46 WHIP.  On the final day of the non-waiver trade deadline Richie secured two 10th round picks in the 2014 draft, shipping the aforementioned Soriano and Giants closer Sergio Romo to Ben and Doug Fister, Mariano Rivera, and Ben Zobrist to Jarrett.  Those moves, along with Alex's 14th overall pick in the Felix Hernandez deal, gives Richie 3 extra picks next year.  So I got that goin' for me....which is nice.  TJ had a week to forget last week in a highly anticipated matchup against Ben.  After dominating O'Connor in the previous two meetings, Geers lost 9-0.  The loss, coupled with big wins from others, dropped TJ all the way down to fourth place.  This marks the first time in months that TJ does not hold one of the top two spots, and it's obviously coming at a bad time.  It was a bad week all around for TJ as both the offense and defense left much to be desired in what was a very winnable week.  At 7.5 games out of a bye with three struggling teams on the menu (Richie, Adrian, and Kurt), he's down but not out, and definitely not with that season series score!

(season series TJ 17-2)

The Average Match of the Week presented by Not Your Average Joe's – James (2nd) vs Jarrett (7th)

Alright good, we got 8th-10th place out of the way early.  All teams yet to be discussed are viciously fighting for playoff seeding and every game counts from here on out.  We'll start with James, who won 7-3 last week against Kurt and actually got passed in the standings by Ben.  Nevertheless, Maimonis is sitting pretty in second place, 5 games up on the nearest competitor. With the unbeaten streak at 13 games, James has clearly developed a team with no holes and he will be a really tough out in the playoffs.  Jarrett is the caboose in a three-team battle for the final two playoff spots after losing 7-2 to Alex.  The match was much, much closer than the score would suggest, as Staaf lost categories by 1 run, 1 homer, .010 BA, 1 win and .05 WHIP.  If the standings stay as is, Jarrett will have closed the season with 6 straight playoff opponents which is a hell of a way to make a playoff push.  Staaf acquired some help for his playoff push (Doug Fister, Mariano Rivera, and Ben Zobrist) from Richie in exchange for his 10th overall draft pick, something that might help him fight through his devil of a schedule.  He currently sits 4.5 games out of the playoffs but will need to play his best fantasy baseball to make it to the dance.  To his credit, Jarrett has played James tough this year, tying 5-5 in week 2 and losing 6-4 in week 11.

(season series James 11-9)

The Post-It® "Noteworthy Match-up" – Alex (3rd) vs Ben (1st)

This week's Noteworthy Match-up is actually the best match on paper, featuring two of the hottest teams in the league.  Ben's 9-0, Alpha male win over a strong TJ team has him looking down on the rest of the league for another week.  Last week Chris Davis popped another 3 dingers and hit over .400 and the pitching was fantastic, throwing up 8 W, 7 S, 81 K,  2.59 ERA and 1.03 WHIP.  The best got better over the weekend as he added Sergio Romo and  Alfonso Soriano for a 10th round pick. Ben has won three in a row but faces a tough task this week.  Alex has won 4 in a row following a 7-2 victory over Jarrett and has moved all the way up to third in the standings. Alex's schedule sets up nicely for him as he gets Richie and Adrian to end the year, and a win against Ben this week would give him a great shot at second or even first.  Both of these guys are comfortably in the playoff picture for 2013 and are now just jockeying for position.  Alex has yet to avenge the 10-0 loss from week 2 as he's 0-2 against O'Connor on the season.

(season series Ben 16-4)

Diamond Strike Anywhere Matches® "Match-Up of the Week" – Kurt (6th) vs Colin (5th)

These two teams are dead even in the standings, though Colin does have the slight advantage.  A note on how I believe Yahoo! calculates this (my apologies if this is common knowledge):  

Yahoo counts a tie as half a win, so a 6-3 win would result in a .650 winning percentage.  But they also recognize that two ties (two half-wins so to speak) does not equal one actual win (which I agree).  So the percentages are the same, but it's favored to the team that has more wins.  Seems fair to me. 

But while their records are virtually identical, Kurt and Colin are trending in very different directions.  A few weeks ago, Colin was mired in a 4 week losing streak, buried in 8th place and fading in the stands.  But he had a couple cupcakes on the schedule and took full advantage, following an 8-1 beat down on Richie two weeks ago with an even more dominant 9-1 win against Adrian last week.  He's had solid numbers across the board the past two weeks which suggests that it's his performance, and not his opponents, that have helped turn his fates around.  And in the middle of it, as always, are Miguel Cabrera and Mike Trout.  Over the past two weeks, they have combined for 22/11/32/5/.400.  Sick and absurd people, sick and absurd.  I always thought this team was too top heavy NOT to make some post-season noise, and I think we're finally seeing it.  Shifting our focus to the other side of the coin, Kurt is in a tail spin.  He's lost two in a row and four of five after his 10 game unbeaten streak and has fallen under .500 for the first time in (I'm guessing) roughly 4 months.  With three horses racing for two spots, the remaining strength of schedule looks like this:

Kurt - .477
Colin - .523
Jarrett - .570

A blowout would place the winner firmly in fifth, and the loser in a dogfight for the six seed with Jarrett.  Huge playoff implications in this week's Match-Up of the Week!
(season series Colin 9-7)


Tuesday, August 13, 2013

Weekly Matchups - Week 19

Week 19's installment of the DDWPIPOTCFFBE (Diamond Dynasty Weekly Preview In Pursuit Of The Chalice For Fantasy Baseball Excellence)

Last week – Colin wins big to launch himself back into the thick of the playoff race and James takes over first place while keeping his unbeaten streak alive.

Strength of Schedule (remainder of regular season)

1. Jarrett - .559
2. Richie - .531
3. Colin - .510
4. Kurt - .508
5. Ben - .503
6. Adrian - .501
7. Drew - .482
8. TJ - .478
9. Alex - .473
10. James - .454

Sleepy's® "Snoozer of the Week" – Richie (10th) vs Drew (9th)

This is that mid-September game when San Diego visits Miami and there are 1,245 people in attendance. Except worse. Three clear tiers have formed (as it does seemingly every year) and these two lovebirds have been kickin' it in the basement all season long. They are now in a virtual tie for last place, although Richie has finally slid behind Drew in the standings for the first time since week 6. Richie lost 8-1 last week behind just a terrible week all around. Offense and Defense were equally unimpressive and he very well could have gotten shutout, as the score was 9-0 for the majority of the week. I just pulled up Drew's match-up with Ben (6-3 loss) for the first time and my jaw almost dropped off my skull. After boasting one of the worst offensive seasons (if not the worst) this year, he put up arguably the best single week of the season. I should have been keeping track of these things, but I think his 56 RBI and .343 average might be the high water marks of the season. He got homeruns from everyone in his lineup except Marco Scutaro, and he had two guys go deep thrice. The pitching wasn't awful from a stat perspective, but he failed to win a pitching category against Ben. Richie's strength of schedule would suggest that he is the favorite for the 2013 Paul French Award but we've all seen what Drew can do. These teams have tied 5-5 in their two previous meetings.

(season series 10-10)

Dell's® "Dull Duel" – Colin (7th) vs Adrian (8th)

On the brink of playoff extinction, Colin roared back to take an 8-1 victory over the floundering Travers last week. The win jumped him up to 7th and he is now just two games out of a playoff spot. Mariano Rivera (Richie) blew three saves in a row for the first time in his storied career, and two of them came (one of them directly, on e of them indirectly) from the bat of Miguel Cabrera (Colin). The saves category ended in a 5-5 tie. Cabrera finished with 4 home runs and 11 RBI for the week, and somehow has a shot at winning back to back triple crowns (first in AVG and RBI, second in HR). Mike Trout was a 5 category-filler as always with a 5/2/6/3/.350 slash line. Colin has a difficult road ahead with the third most difficult schedule the rest of the way, and his last 3 games are against current playoff teams. Adrian has a slightly easier schedule to end the season, but he is really scuffling at the worst possible time. He's 0-3-1 over the last month and has fallen 4.5 games out of the final playoff spot. He earned a respectable 5-5 tie last week against James but probably feels a little cheated after a poor Sunday performance cost him a chance at a win. Adrian closes with top-tier teams TJ and Alex so he'll have to take care of business this week and next, when he takes on Drew. These guys have split the season series 1-1 but Colin has a slight edge in the records.

(season series Colin 10-9)

The Average Match of the Week presented by Not Your Average Joe's – James (1st) vs Kurt (5th)

We move into the first of two match-ups that can have implications on both the bye and playoff races but first, let's take a moment to give James some respect as the new leader of the DD. The unbeaten streak is up to 12 (Kurt, record check?) and, with by far the easiest schedule the rest of the way he is poised to capture the regular season crown. This is the last week he'll face a top 5 opponent, and one of the last two weeks he'll face a (current) playoff opponent. As previously mentioned, James stole a tie last week against Adrian thanks to solid weekend play. He outscored Adrian by 8 RBI's on Sunday to give him a 1-RBI win, and his 2 saves gave him a 4-3 edge for the 5-5 tie. He draws Kurt this week, who's faded back to the middle of the pack after making a push for the top-tier group. He dropped an important 5-2 decision last week to Jarrett which featured some skittish offense (3 homers) but good pitching. Newly acquired Shelby Miller got two pitches into his first start with Kurt before taking a line drive off the elbow and exiting the game, which probably cost Kurt K's (84-81) and possibly wins (3-3). Like Adrian, Kurt is fading at a bad time. He's lost three of four and his playoff cushion is down to 6 games. With TJ looming in the last week of the regular season and James this week, he'll have to try to hold the fort against those two and solidify his playoff spot against Colin and Drew. Another even match-up here as these guys have split the season series as well.

(season series 10-10)

The Post-It® "Noteworthy Match-up" – Alex (4th) vs Jarrett (6th)

The second game that impacts both races is between Alex and Jarrett. While Shelby Miller didn't come back to haunt Staaf, Miller's compensation (Buster Posey) was equally bad, mustering only 1 RBI and a .105 average. But Staaf's staff came through again, racking up a 4-0-1 record on defense. Jarrett's played well as of late, going 3-2 in the last 5 weeks and playing at a .560 clip. But Alex is the best team that he's played since week 12 (Ben, an 8-0 loss) and his difficulty with good teams is well documented. To close the season Jarrett has to play three of the top four teams (James and Ben after this week) before closing with Colin. He has the 6th spot now but by September he could be on the outside looking in. His opponent this week is one of the hottest teams going as Gentilli has a 5-1-1 record in his last 7 contests (and the only loss was a 6-4 decision in week 14 against Kurt). This excellent play has unexpectedly catapulted him into the bye week discussion. Don't get me wrong – Alex was my pre-season pick to win it all and I'm sticking to it, but I didn't think he really had a shot at a bye. At only 4.5 games out of second and the second-easiest schedule to end the year, Gentilli fans everywhere are going crazy. Alex has taken care of business against Jarrett this year, winning both matches.

P.S. - How bad does that 10-0 week 2 loss to Ben suck for Alex right now

(season series Alex 13-7)

Diamond Strike Anywhere Matches® "Match-Up of the Week" – TJ (2nd) vs Ben (3rd)

TJ plays Ben in the first match-up of 100 game winners this year. After trading off first place virtually all year, this will be the first week in months where one of these two fine gentlemen do not hold the top spot. TJ lost 6-3 last week to Alex in a close battle. He fell short by just 1 win and 2 runs, and the ratios were fairly close. The loss broke a 3 week winning streak for Geers, who is just 1 game behind James for first place. Ben is right on his heels at 2 GB following a 6-3 barn-buster win against Drew where every single starter going deep at least once (!). The hero was old friend Justin Concustin' Morneau, who went deep 4 times and drove in 10. His 4 homers this week were almost half of his homers for the season before this week (because he has 14 now, so that means he had 10 before he hit the 4 this week, and 5 is half of 10, and 4 is almost but not quite 5....my head hurts). Elvis Andrus also swiped 5 bags in the victory. Ben has 10 of the top 55 players over the last 30 days, but is surprisingly only 21-17 in the last month (.550). With James taking on Kurt and Alex playing Jarrett, the top four next Monday morning is anybody's guess. TJ has owned Ben this year, winning both match ups going away.

(season series TJ 14-5)

Monday, August 5, 2013

Weekly Matchups - Week 18

Week 18's installment of the DDWPIPOTCFFBE (Diamond Dynasty Weekly Preview In Pursuit Of The Chalice For Fantasy Baseball Excellence)

Last week – Little movement in the standings as the top 5 all win and the bottom 5 all lose

Sleepy's® "Snoozer of the Week" – Drew (10th) vs Ben (3rd)

Drew lost 6-4 last week to Alex. He hit one home run. Last week I pointed out that he's starting two guys on the DL – they're still starting. That's all I'll say about that.  Ben outlasted Colin 6-4 last week behind some stellar pitching. 6 wins, 80 K's, a 2.00 ERA and 1.06 WHIP will win you a lot of weeks. His worst pitcher was Adam Wainwright, go figure. Chris Davis was back to his mashing ways (3 homers) and Brian McCann had his best week of the season (3/3/9/.300). It was an important bounce back win for Ben to keep pace with the top 2 after his 9-1 loss to James last week. He is solidly in 3rd place and projects to be there for at least another week before moving up or down the standings. Interesting to note that Ben has made significantly less moves than the others teams in the top four (TJ, James, and Alex happen to be the top three in moves). Ben's looking for his first back to back wins since weeks 12-13 and is the heavy favorite, but the standings should remain virtually unaffected regardless of this outcome.

(season series Ben 8-2)

Dell's® "Dull Duel" – TJ (1st) vs Alex (4th)

TJ has followed up a mid-season mini-slump with three straight victories. His latest was a tightly contested 6-3 win against Jarrett. Geers posted a 4-1 record on defense by really slim margins – 1 win, 2 K's, and .01 WHIP. He split offense 2-2-1 thanks in large part to his hometown Atlanta Braves (minus Dan Uggla). Justin Upton and Freedie Freeman combined for 18 runs, 5 homers (I saw one of Upton's in Philly on Saturday!), 17 RBI and an average right around .380. TJ would have taken the RBI category too if it wasn't for B.J. Shuck. The win allowed TJ to retain first place for another week but the competition is a little stiffer this week against Alex. Gentilli has taken care of business lately, going 4-1-1 in his last 6 weeks against mostly the bottom half of the league. He's unbeaten in his last 3 and is coming off a 6-4 win against Drew. Anthony Rizzo (3 homers, .310 average) and Andrew McCutchen (8/1/7/2/.379) were the standouts on offense, and a resurgent Francisco Liriano (2 win's, 14 K's, sub-1 ratios, ranked 40th on the season) lead the way on defense. Alex owns three of the top 11 players over the last two weeks in McCutchen, Liriano, and Yasiel Puig, and just added Curtis Granderson from the DL. Alex has a tough three game stretch in TJ, Jarrett, and Ben before closing with Richie and Adrian. He won't miss the playoffs but a bye is starting to feel out of reach.

(season series TJ 6-2)

The Average Match of the Week presented by Not Your Average Joe's – Richie (9th) vs Colin (8th)

Richie saw his modest 2-week winning streak come to a frustrating end last week.. He fell short by three runs, one homer, and one stolen base en route to another 7-2-1 loss to James, the same score as in their previous meeting. Richie fell to 0-10 offensively against Maimonis on the season and is glad to be done with him in 2013. The defeat dropped him 16 games back of the playoffs, and with several key players either on or nearing the DL, Travers' 2013 season may finally be over. Colin has dropped 4 in a row to difficult competition (TJ, Alex, and Ben) although he's been able to avoid a death knell-type loss that would take him out of the hunt. Lancey lost 6-4 last week to Ben despite Jason Heyward's 12 runs scored (which I believe is a season-best for any player). As it currently stands, this week will be the last week Colin comes in as the favorite though he only has one elite team remaining on the schedule (James in week 21). It will be an uphill battle but he's certainly not out of it yet. (And for the record, Colin squares off against Jarrett in week 22 which could be a win-or-go-home situation.)

(season series Richie 7-3)

The Post-It® "Noteworthy Match-up" – Kurt (5th) vs Jarrett (6th)

Kurt found his way back to the win column last week after a 5-4 victory over Adrian. The offense was not good – 4 homers and a .252 average – but he did get one of the better pitching performances of the year from his staff. Pretty impressive to post 101 K's with only one spot start! Gottschalk had 5 guys hurl double digit strikeouts in the win. But the bigger news was his addition of rookie sensation Shelby Miller. The potential NL Rookie of the Year joins a staff that's already leading the league in Wins and K's, and should make Kurt virtually unbeatable in those categories moving forward. He should also help to lower The Commissioner's ERA and WHIP, which is currently in the middle of the pack. But you have to give something to get something and that something was Buster Posey, the best catcher in fantasy. This looks to be a truly mutually beneficial deal - Kurt had a servicable back up in Jonathan Lucroy and a lack of flexibility to keep Posey, and Jarrett had more arms than the Chinese Army. Just as Richie and Alex faced off the week after their deal, Kurt and Jarrett draw each other this week. Jarrett's lead over Adrian for the final playoff spot shrunk from 4 games to 3 following a 6-3 loss to TJ last week. He could have easily won by the same margin but lost some really close categories. There's one team that gets burned every week, and last week it was him. This should be a great, close battle. It'll be interesting to see how the new additions contribute for both sides. Also, it's another edition of the battle of whatever street you guys live on.

(season series 5-5)

Diamond Strike Anywhere Matches® "Match-Up of the Week" – James (2nd) vs Adrian (7th)

Another week, another Diamond Strike Anywhere Matches® "Match-Up of the Week" for James. The 7-2 win last week against Richie broke Kurt's record 10 week unbeaten streak. While Kurt had a better weekly record (8-0-2, .590), it's clear that James's streak is much more dominant (7-0-4, .655). Maimonis didn't play great last week but he got enough production to sweep offense. Mark Trumbo went deep 3 times and drove in 8 (but still only managed to hit .138) and Matt Holiday was great, scoring 9 times and hitting over .400. He gets Adrian this week, loser of three in a row. He seemed to be one of the few teams with a good offensive output last week, launching 11 homers, driving in 41, and hitting over .300. He was up against a monster in the form of Kurt's pitching staff, so he couldn't get much done on the mound (just a 1-4 record). I love this match-up because it's so important to both races we have right now; come Sunday night we could have a new team in first and Adrian desperately struggling for playoff life, or Adrian grabbing hold of 6th and James falling behind Ben again in a race for the byes.

Or more than likely, a modest win from James and everything stays the same.

(season series 5-5)



Thursday, August 1, 2013

Weekly Matchups - Week 17

Week 17's installment of the DDWPIPOTCFFBE (Diamond Dynasty Weekly Preview In Pursuit Of The Chalice For Fantasy Baseball Excellence)

Last week – James dominates Ben and moves up to second, Richie gets his first winning streak of the season, and the Trade Deadline BBQ helps to heat up trade talks.

Sleepy's® "Snoozer of the Week" – Colin (8th) vs Ben (3rd)

Colin and Ben draw the short straw this week as they're both slumping at a bad time. Colin is the coldest team in the league, riding his second three-game losing streak of the year. He made the only deal at the cookout, shipping Jean Segura and Kyle Lohse for Chris Sale and Glen Perkins. The trade bolsters his pitching staff (already above .500 not counting the saves category) and gives him a third reliable closer with Bobby Parnell and Steve Cishek. Colin lost a tough one last week against Alex. 6 RBI's, 1 win, .07 ERA and .08 WHIP marked the fine line between a win and a loss. The Wil Myers trade looks like it's starting to pay off as he went 5/3/8/1/.429 (what an outfield combo he might have moving forward in Myers and Trout!) Ben has cooled off recently, dropping two of his last three and playing two games under .500. James mopped the floor with him last week in a 9-1 drubbing, although it was closer than it looked. Despite 6 saves, a 2.29 ERA, and a 0.93 WHIP Ben lost all three and slipped out of the top two for the first time in months. Chris Davis finally went a week without hitting a home run. Max Scherzer had another good week, posting 2 wins, 12 K's and great ratios. The race for the bye week is on!

(season series Ben 8-2)

Dell's® "Dull Duel" – TJ (1st) vs Jarrett (6th)

TJ held on to beat the suddenly competitive Drew 5-4 behind a 4-0 pitching shutout. With the win, TJ re-takes first place by a slim margin over James. Craig Kimbrel racked up 4 saves and has given up just one run over his last 27 appearances. He'll take on Jarrett this week who beat Adrian 7-3 last week and has won two of three. More importantly, it's Jarrett's first win against an opponent outside the bottom three (Drew, Richie, Colin)(but to be fair, Adrian was 7th so its a small improvement). Jarrett had an Adam Dunn week, knocking 10 homers, driving in 30, but hitting .197, which might be the low number on the year for the league. Jose Altuve stole 4 bases and Paul Goldschmidt drive in 7. On the rubber, Jon Lester was the ace of the staff netting Jarrett 2 wins, striking out 16, and boasting great ratios. This week will be a good test for Jarrett to see if he can beat a quality top 5 opponent, though I bet he would win if he added Prince Fielder, David Wright, Bartolo Colon, Mike Napoli, and Sergio Romo.

(season series TJ 7-3)

The Average Match of the Week presented by Not Your Average Joe's – Drew (10th) vs Alex (4th)

Drew had his two week winning streak snapped (barely) last week, dropping a close 5-4 decision to TJ. Donovan had his best offensive output of the year, hitting 13 homers, 47 RBI's, and a .311 average. He had really solid production from a number of offensive sources led by Jayson Werth's 7/3/7/1/.385 slashline. Unfortunately the pitching was a big letdown and was unable to get even one category for the tie. I still don't completely trust that Drew has come around from his negligence (he's starting two players on the DL) but to be fair, he has started making more moves so I'm inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt. But I'll be watching you, Drew. Every move you make, every breath you take, I'll be watching Yu Darvish. He takes on Alex, who dealt a promising lefty in Chris Sale for a breakout star this season, Jean Segura over the weekend. Despite Alex's deep pitching staff, his offense has actually posted a better record than his defense thus far. Consistent with that theme, Gentilli beat Colin 6-3 last week behind a 4-1 effort from his offense. Giancarlo Stanton and Nick Franklin hit 3 homers each in the victory. Alex was able to snatch the ERA and WHIP categories despite Ernesto Frieri's 33.75/5.25 efforts to thwart his manager. If Alex loses this week, he might put himself out of contention for a bye week so this will be one to keep an eye on.

(season series Alex 6-3-1)

The Post-It® "Noteworthy Match-up" – Kurt (5th) vs Adrian (7th)

This match-up could carry with it some heavy playoff implications. If Kurt wins big, he all but solidifies himself for the 2013 playoffs. If Adrian wins big, He thrusts himself back into the playoffs (temporarily) but, more importantly, drags Kurt back into the clusterfuck of playoff bubble teams. And Kurt just be ripe for the pickin'. Last week's 5-4 loss to Richie was his second in a row (and his first official losing streak). The teams were very evenly matched and were separated by just 4 runs, 2 homers, 2 rbi's, .003 average. The pitching was much the same, as they tied in wins and split the ERA/WHIP categories. Patrick Corbin kept the train rolling, winning a start and striking out 14 with great ratios. The good news for Kurt is Adrian has been playing even worse, dropping two in a row and four of five. His only win was a 5-4 edging of Ben, but his record over the last 5 weeks is a dismal 14-34-2 (.300%). He had a really poor offensive effort last week hitting only 5 homers and driving in 16. He somehow won average at .219. He did get jobbed on the pitching a bit, as his 2.49 ERA was not enough. Add it all up, and a 7-3 loss to Jarrett put him firmly in 7th. It's officially playoff push time.

(season series Kurt 6-4)

Diamond Strike Anywhere Matches® "Match-Up of the Week" – Richie (9th) vs James (2nd)

Hey, Winning Streak! I waited a long time for you! We were good buddies last year, where'd you go?
Look, I kinda need you to stick around this week...and for the rest of the year. Most people don't think I have a shot at the playoffs this year – hell, deep down even I have my doubts. We did good last week to hold off Kurt on the final day. As you know, he's the 6 Win King and I definitely expected him to steal some bullshit category for a 6 spot. But look, James is really good. He's so cocky he's not even starting a catcher! Did you see last week, when he beat Ben 9-1? Ben! He was in first place! Did you notice he has 6 pitchers in the top 55 over the last 7 days? He finally cracked the top two as well. Either way, I'm glad you're back, Winning Streak. And just in time for the rival! Like I said, there's only 6 weeks left, why don't you stay a while?

P.S. - Hey, Winning Streak. I'm not going to question you but I'm not sure a 6.85 ERA after three days is the right play. Just sayin'.

(season series James 7-2-1)



Monday, July 22, 2013

Weekly Matchups - Week 16

Week 16's installment of the DDWPIPOTCFFBE (Diamond Dynasty Weekly Preview In Pursuit Of The Chalice For Fantasy Baseball Excellence)

Last three weeks – The All-Star break comes and goes as Ben and TJ continue to fight over the top spot. James continues to lurk in third and three teams separated by one game jockey for all-important 6th place as the home stretch begins.

Sleepy's® "Snoozer of the Week" – Richie (9th) vs Kurt (5th)

Nobody benefited more from the All-Star-break-induced extra weekend than Richie, who turned a 10-0 deficit against Adrian into an improbable 6-4 victory. But the month prior was an ugly one for the league's best blogger; after his 7-3 win over Colin in week 9, Richie fell back to futility posting 4 bad losses in a row (8-27-5). In a “warning track power” type of season, Richie entered the previous two weekends (and many before that) either in the lead, tied, or well within striking distance of his competition, only to get blown out come Sunday night. Three weeks ago Ben beat Richie 7-1 and two weeks ago, Richie lost 7-3 to Jarrett. Ben and Jarrett's 4 day weekend total over those two weeks looked like this: 32 runs, 12 homers, 33 RBI's, 6 SB, .330 which translates to a full week of 56 runs, 21 homers, 58 RBI's, 11 SB, and a .330 average. Woof. Travers can claim his first winning streak this year if he can get by Kurt, who had been the hottest team in the league prior to last week. An 8-1 thrashing from Ben broke the league's best unbeaten streak this year (8-0-2). Kurt still has yet to win more than 6 categories in a week (can't believe that) but is firmly in 5th place. Over the last month, the Commissioner has gotten solid play from all types of different sources; newly-acquired C.J. Wilson (30th) (traded to Colin for Wil Myers), FA pickup Ivan Nova (69th), year-long producers Shin-Soo Choo (55th) and Patrick Corbin (59th), and keepers Buster Posey (42nd) and Carlos Gonzalez (60th). With the trade deadline BBQ just days away, this week's result could have implications ripple throughout the league.

(season series Kurt 6-4)

Dell's® "Dull Duel" – Colin (8th) vs Alex (4th)

Colin looked like he was in good shape following an 8-2 beat down of Jarrett, but all that good was undone in weeks 14 and 15. He gave Drew his first win of the year and then proceeded to get smashed 8-2 by second-place TJ the week after. He's only one game out of the playoffs right now but has a tough schedule to close the season as he is scheduled to take on the top 4 teams in the last 7 weeks of the season. The team continues to be super top-heavy, with Miguel Cabrera and Mike Trout (ranked 1st and 8th respectively in the last month) unable to pick up the slack for the rest of the crew (some stats to munch on – Cabrera has hit at least 3 home runs in three consecutive weeks, and Trout's batting averages in the last four contests are .321, .405, .381, and .393). Jean Segura and Hyun-Jin Ryu have regressed (slightly in Segura's case, heavily in Ryu's) and Yu Darvish was lost to a back injury for 3 weeks, though he is set to return this week. He goes to battle against Alex this week who is looking for his first win since a 9-0, near shutout victory over Adrian in week 13. Kurt took him down in week 14 (you can guess the score) but week 15 was a real barn-burner, a 5-5 tie against James that had some really, really close categories. James swept the offensive categories, and Alex home took the pitching categories. Definitely worth checking out the scoreboard if you haven't already. Taking into account the extended week, Felix Hernandez still posted the most impressive single-week totals to date, winning 3 games and posting sub-1 ratios. Colin can't afford to lose many more, and it starts this week.


(season series Alex 8-2)

The Average Match of the Week presented by Not Your Average Joe's – Drew (10th) vs TJ (2nd)

Um...watch out TJ? After not doing shit for 2 months, Drew set his line up and has won two weeks in a row. Quick poll: Was it more likely for Drew to win two weeks in a row, or more likely that Richie and Drew would both win in the same week? If you answered both, you were correct! And also insane to think that would happen!

It was Donovan's first wins all year after compiling a 0-11-2 record through the first 13 weeks of the season. Drew beat Colin and Jarrett for the winning streak. The only person happier than Drew after the second victory was Colin, who said “See! It can happen! I told you! It's not just me! Oh thank you Jesus it's not just me!” Lancey now holds the dubious honor of giving Drew and Richie their first wins on the year, though he still has a winning record against the two cellar-dwellers (15-14). The week prior, Drew avoided a 10-0 shutout to James by knocking in one extra RBI than the Grecian. TJ got back to the W column last week following his first losing streak of the year. Kurt and James got the best of him in weeks 13-14, but he laid a serious beat down on Colin last week. Geers posted the best or second best totals in the league last week in RBI's, Wins, Saves, K's, ERA, and WHIP. Desmond Jennings and Jose Bautista have been top-20 performers over the last month and the pitching staff continues to run deep. Drew's bats will need to wake up for him to have a chance this week but his pitching staff has started to wake up and he just might have a glimmer of hope in extending this out-of-nowhere winning streak to 3.

(season series TJ 5-4)

The Post-It® "Noteworthy Match-up" – Adrian (7th) vs Jarrett (6th)

Adrian's had a real roller coaster ride in 2013, and the last month has been no exception. The human road-runner had a superbly difficult stretch in weeks 12-14, playing the 1st, 2nd, and 4th placemen. It started badly, losing to TJ and Alex by a combined score of 17-2. Adrian fought back to beat first-place Ben 5-4 two weeks ago, a win that snapped a 7 week win-less streak vs people not named Drew and a 10 week winless streak vs people not named Drew or Richie. The match up against Ben had some big time offense, but it was the pitching that netted Adrian the win (4-1 on defense). As week 15 was halted for All-Star game festivities, he found himself up 10-0 against lowly Richie before throwing up the biggest choke job of the 2013 season thus far, slipping and eventually losing 6-4. Leading on Sunday morning, Adrian's offense went 5/1/4/0/.182 to Richie's 10/4/10/0/.372, costing him runs and average. The pitching was even more of a train wreck, posing an 8.10 ERA and 1.55 WHIP and costing him both those categories too. For the first time all year, he is not in a playoff position despite being in a virtual tie for 6th. Conveniently, that person this week's match up, Jarrett. Back in week 9 I pointed out that Jarrett was having trouble beating the better teams in the league, and that problem is now abundantly clear. Staaf is 4-2 (35-23-2, .600) against the bottom three teams (Colin, Richie, and Drew) and is 0-6-3 (32-55-3, .372) against everyone else. Furthermore, Jarrett just came out of his 3 week stretch against the aforementioned bottom 3 and managed only a 1-2 record (13-17). He's 5-24-1 on offense dating back to June 3 and is not playing good fantasy baseball right now. If this was the last week of the season this would no doubt be the match-up of the week but as there is plenty of time left in the season, the implications of this week are only so big. But it's still a big match up in terms of jockeying for position for that all-important 6 seed.

(season series 5-5)

Diamond Strike Anywhere Matches® "Match-Up of the Week" – James (3rd) vs Ben (1st)

Easy choice for Match-Up of the Week this week as James takes on Ben in a battle of two of the best offenses going. With Kurt's loss last week to Ben coupled with James's “fireworks” tie against Alex, Maimonis now owns the longest active unbeaten streak in the DD, running 9 weeks and encompassing literally the entire league in the process. The streak, which has almost as many ties (4) as wins (5) reaches back to week 7 when he beat – hey, Ben! – 7-3 in a not-so-close match up. For those of you wondering at home, Chris Davis sucked ass that week, hitting only 1 dinky home run and batting a “totally gross” .316. The backbone of this unbeaten streak is the offense, posting a 32-13 (.711) record. The pitching hasn't been bad either, running up a winning record at 23-21-1. But Ben is no slouch on offense either. Since the week 7 loss, O'Connor has posted a .656 winning percentage on offense. But he's also shown great balance, winning the defensive categories at a .633 clip. The offenses in this match up, especially with Chris Davis at the height of his powers (multiple home runs in 5 consecutive contests, 3.4 HR average) is basically a wash, but Ben has a big edge in the pitching department. With Richie and Adrian next on the schedule for James, beating Ben this week could set him up to break Kurt's streak for the longest unbeaten streak of the year.

(season series James 7-3)



Tuesday, July 9, 2013

A look back at the preseason power rankings


Well, we are midway through the MLB season and it’s been another great first half for the DD. With headline news happening week after week in our league, many storylines have taken center stage.

Some that come to mind are:

The renting deal between Alex and Kurt, the benching of pitching staffs midway through the week, Drew winning his first week of the season last week, Richie and Alex’s epic trade, Drew and Ben having the same team name for way too long, Kurt’s and my respective 10 and 8-week unbeaten streaks, Richie getting closer and closer to owing me and Kurt $20 for finishing with a worse regular-season record following a drunken draft-night wager, Drew forgetting to start Verlander for multiple weeks, our one meeting, Richie’s hundreds of attempts to have a second meeting, Ben’s continued shit luck against Longoria, Kurt renaming the league after Nolan Reimond and Jermaine Dye in consecutive days, Richie’s sweet weekly matchups, and lastly, TJ being just a half game out of first place despite Richie and Kurt picking him to finish 9th in their preseason power rankings.

This leads me to my next point, which has to do with said power rankings. Let’s look back at how each team has faired thus far and how their current position compares to the preseason power rankings. As of now, zero teams are where they were projected to finish, but there is still plenty of time to turn that around, or for TJ to fall down to 9th.

Colin: Preseason 1, Current 6

Colin had high expectations coming into this season, as he owned the top two hitters in all of baseball. With the additions of Ryu, Darvish and Segura this year, Colin got off to a hot start as expected, however took a midseason dive thanks to a 7-23 record from weeks 7-9. Just when things were looking up for Colin, beating Jarrett 8-2, an embarrassing loss to Drew has dropped him to within just one game of last pace (not including the developmental teams of Richie and Drew). Colin needs to bank on Wil Myers paying off in the second half after paying the hefty price of CJ Wilson for him, and hope that Medlen does not get bumped to the bullpen as expected when Beachy gets back from the DL.

Kurt: Preseason 2, Current 5

As we all know, mostly from Kurt informing us week after week, he has a good team and his place in the standings does not reflect the quality of his team. First place in cumulative homers, runs, average and wins and yet he finds himself 5th in the standings. What’s the issue? Well, it’s partially bad luck, partially having four solid, healthy starters all year (Lynn, Zimmerman, Samardazija and Corbin) and having to rotate the rest in and out, having streaky hitters (mostly good streaky though), having a DL-riddled team, and some might say having no closers. Kurt is currently the toughest manager in the league to defeat, as he’s gone 10 straight weeks unbeaten, but he is the least dominant winning team, not taking more than six categories in a single week all season. It will be interesting to see when Kurt gets into the playoffs whether he can scratch out another (what seems to be an easy) 6-4 win or if he’ll have to rely on his regular-season standing to determine his fate following a playoff tie.


Alex: Preseason 3, Current 4

Not bad Richie and Kurt, Alex is just three games off of where you predicted him to finish. Alex has had a pretty dominant year, but has been hurt by Stanton’s injury and Rizzo sucking after a hot start. Puig and Franklin have really helped solidify him as a top dog, losing only to Ben, TJ and Kurt so far. Alex might have the most well balanced offense right now, owning a winning record in every hitting category this year. Alex, out of any team, is actually the one I’m most nervous to face, and I happen to be facing him this week.

Jarrett: Preseason 4, Current 7

Jarrett’s outfield was projected as one of the best coming into the year, but the lack of production from that position is one reason he currently sits in 7th place. Hamilton- Sucks, Cespedes- .226, Braun- Injured since June 9, now that’s just shit luck. Thankfully, Goldschmidt, Carpenter and Machado are all beasiting right now, and are part of the best corner infield in the league (Jarrett, please switch Carpenter with Rendon so this statement can be true). Jarrett’s pitching staff is scary, unfortunately he’s been edged out in some close matchups the past few weeks. When all his pitchers are on their game, led by Kershaw, the best pitcher in baseball (in my opinion), Jarrett should win 4-1 every week in pitching, he just needs a little more help on the offensive. Four straight losses from weeks 10-13 has bumped Jarrett down to 7th place, but if Braun comes back soon and if Hamilton starts hitting like he does in the late innings against the Sox against every team, Jarrett could find himself in the top tier of the league pretty soon.

Ben: Preseason 5, Current 1

Ben has five losses to his record so far, but still finds himself in 1st place thanks to two shutouts and multiple wins in dominant fashion. He was 21-5-4 in his last three weeks prior to losing to Adrian this past week, which propelled him right through Clay’s butt hole and into first place. Led by potential All-Star Game starters Scherzer and Wainwright, Ben has a winning record in every pitching category this year, and is second overall in cumulative WHIP. Ellsbury is leading his team on the base paths, helping him play to a 12-1-1 record in steals and a winning record in each hitting category but RBI. Ben certainly has the bats as well, with Chris Davis, Cano, Encarnacion, the recent pickup of Rauuuuul, and hopefully Dexter Fowler coming back soon. Ben’s cumulative team stats haven’t been the greatest, but he’s well balanced enough and has played the right competition at the right time to find himself atop the leaderboard.

Richie: Preseason 6, Current 9

Well, who could see this one coming? Me obviously, hence me betting 20 doll hairs I would finish with a better regular season record than Rich. As you can tell, I love gloating when I’m ahead, which doesn’t happen often so I take advantage of it when I can. Like for instance when the Mariners are in first place every year at 1-0 and then suck every game after that. Anyway, Richie currently has two healthy starters (Strasburg and Fister) that he actually drafted, which means he had to settle for mediocrity in free agency throughout the season after everyone else nabbed all the good pitchers. The pitching is downright atrocious. His hitting is coming along finally though with Hanley back and better than ever, Wright being only slightly overrated, as he’s starting to somewhat prove me wrong, Gomez still tearing and Craig staying consistent. Richie has just one win all season and is on a four-week losing streak, establishing himself as one of the two worst teams in the league by far. I do feel however if his pitching can string together a couple good weeks, the bats will be good enough to carry him to a few ties or Kurt wins, not completely ruling out the possibility of an August/September playoff push.

Drew: Preseason 7, Current 10

Seriously guys, Drew ahead of me, TJ and Adrian? I hope y’all learned your lesson and despite how future drafts go, will never predict Drew to finish above 10th ever again. Drew finally picked up his first win of the season last week and it only came 14 weeks young. His suckiness is due to five things: 1. Shitty hitting 2. Shitty pitching 3. Shitty drafting 4. Shitty managing 5. Shitty managing. I hope I relayed the message. He either realized he had a piss poor team early on and decided to do nothing about it or he thought he had a team that could contend, which was obviously horrible judgment. Either way, his lack of attention paid to the league has resulted in a league-low nine moves and 43 wins. Molina has really only been the one consistent spot on offense, but if Hosmer, Werth and Gordon can continue to stay hot, Drew might be able to eek out a couple hitting categories a week, okay, maybe one. Drew hasn’t had one dominant pitcher this season, except maybe AJ Burnett, who just got activated off the DL, Drew’s DL that is. Verlander has been pretty good but Drew missed some of his best starts due to laziness. It’s a long road ahead for Drew, who better bank on trading pieces for draft picks for next season.

James: Preseason 8, Current 3

I honestly wasn’t sure how my season was going to go once I started 13-17. Obviously after the draft I was confident I had the best team, but then as everyone had warned me, Weaver and Dickey were going to have their issues, prompting me to rethink my strategy. Luckily I strung together some nice pickups of Teheran and Fernandez and now that Gio and Weaver are pitching well and Dickey has had a couple good starts, I think my rotation is starting to find its identity. The hitting was never the issue, except for having all my big bats on the DL at some point. Currently, I have eight hitters in the top 77 and that’s helped me to a .500 record or better in every hitting category this year. And my totals aren’t that bad either, as I’m first in RBI, tied for second in homers, third in runs and third in SB (p.s. I’m still not a fan of the category rewards at the end of the season). 
The combination of solid hitting and timely and strategic pitching has helped me on an eight-week unbeaten streak and 24 games over the .500 mark (my highest total in a long time). The next two weeks against Alex and Ben will be tough but then the road the rest of the way is relatively easy (minus week 19 against Kurt). I should stay in the top 3 solely based on lack of competition but losses this week and next to Ben could prove vital, but on the other hand, wins against top teams will go a long way.

TJ- Preseason 9, Current 2

TJ has beaten everybody in the league except me and Colin (playing for second time this week) and started his season with a 9-1-2 weekly record. His success has greatly been due to a whole bunch of surprises, and there’s nothing wrong with that. Frankly, I had no idea Matt Harvey, Josh Donaldson, Mike Minor, Ervin Santana and Jeff Locke would all have the All-Star worthy years they are having, but seriously, who did? Props TJ on those sweet pickups. TJ has lost his last two weeks, but it’s nothing to worry about, as he’s dropped close contests to the two hottest teams in the DD. TJ has a relatively painless schedule the rest of the way so there is less than a minute chance he’ll slip down do his preseason projection of 9th.

Adrian- Preseason 10, Current 8

Adrian has beaten everyone he’s supposed to and lost to everyone he’s supposed to putting him in 8th place and just a game out of the playoffs. He’s averaging 6.8th place per hitting category, and yet he’s only below .500 for the year in home runs. It’s not all his fault however, as Matt Kemp has missed a chunk of the season, Headly has sucked balls, and Wandy and Cueto have really been sidelined due to injury. It honestly didn’t look like Adrian had a 10th place team before the season started, but with all his injuries and poor free agent replacements, it’s starting to look more and more like it. He’s extremely lucky there’s Richie and Drew to beat up on 2/9ths of the weeks and to keep him out of the bottom dwellers.