Week 23's installment of the
DDWPIPOTCFFBE – PE (Diamond Dynasty Weekly Preview In
Pursuit Of The Chalice For Fantasy Baseball Excellence – PLAYOFF
EDITION)
Last week – Ben and James hold on
to the byes, TJ leapfrogs Alex for third (and changes the playoff
picture in the process). Jarrett fizzles down the stretch and
finishes on the outside looking in, Adrian's late season push falls
short, and Drew out-sucks Richie for the 2013 Paul French Award.
After 22 weeks of fierce competition, the Diamond Dynasty finally has
it's 6 playoff contestants in 2013. I first want to thank Sleepy's,
Dell, Not You Average Joe's, Post-It, and Diamond for sponsoring the
regular season match ups this year, and we look forward to continuing
a mutually beneficial business relationship in the years ahead. I
would also like to extend a congratulatory salute to Ben and James,
who secured the bye weeks after a season-long showing of dominance.
So without further adieu, the 2013 first round playoff match ups
brought to you by:
TJ
(3rd)
vs Kurt (6th)
–
The DL All-Stars vs the 6 win kid. To be honest, both teams are kind
of limping into the playoffs. TJ was no worse than third place for
essentially the entire year so he's proven that he's no fluke. But
he's heading into the playoffs with Albert Pujols, Jose Bautista, and
Matt Harvey on the DL. At this point in his career, Pujols is
replacement level – the absence of the other two will be felt. TJ
was 9-1-2 in the first 12 weeks but just 5-5 in the final 10 weeks
with a 1-1 record against first round opponent Kurt. Despite his
.486 winning percentage, The Commissioner had an 11-8-3 weekly
record. He's only 2-6 in the last 8 weeks but the 10-week unbeaten
streak should not be forgotten. His ability to squeak by, coupled
with TJ's walking wounded, should make for a very close game. TJ
beat Kurt 7-3 last week, but it easily could have been a 6-4 win for
Kurt.
Season
series: TJ 2-1 (17-12)
OFFENSE:
TJ
finished in the top three in Runs, HR, and RBI but struggled in SB
(10th)
and BA (9th).
The subtraction of Jose Bautista and Albert Pujols would presumably
have the greatest effect in the three aforementioned strengths.
Brandon Moss and Josh Donaldson have been top 40 players over the
past month but it's hard to say how long they'll be able to keep that
pace up. Jay Bruce is approaching 30 homers and seems to be heating
up, if only a little. Kurt finished the year first in Runs and third
in Average, but bottom third in RBI and SB. He is also facing some
injury issues with Carlos Gonzalez unable to swing a bat and Bryce
Harper at less than 100%. Recently, Shin Soo-Choo and Ian Desmond
have been the leaders of the club and they have the talent to
continue their level of play.
Edge – Kurt
PITCHING:
This is where it gets interesting. One man's strength is another
man's weakness in most categories here. Kurt led the league in Wins
and K's, but was last or second to last in Saves, ERA, and WHIP. TJ
was top three in the latter three categories, but just middle of the
pack in Wins and K's. TJ is already up 1-0 automatically as Kurt
carries no closers, and he only needs to win 4 more categories as he
possesses the tie breaker via home field advantage. A rotation
without Matt Harvey is much less imposing (and those once strong
ratios start to creep up as well). Even still, TJ has a guaranteed
win and a big edge in two other categories.
Edge – TJ
Prediction: Really, really close one. But thanks to the home field
advantage, TJ advances on a 4-4 tie.
Alex
(4th)
vs Colin (5th)
– These two gentlemen were my pre-season first and second place
picks, so I'm not surprised that they're battling for the 2013 crown.
Alex is searching for his first win in three weeks (0-1-2), though
he did have a four week winning streak before that. Conversely,
Colin has played fairly well recently (3-2) following a 4 week losing
streak. Gentilli is coming into the playoffs remarkably healthy,
with no players on the DL. Colin cannot say the same, as Joe Mauer
and Jason Heyward will not be able to go this week. But as we all
know, Colin will sink or swim with the production of Miguel Cabrera
and Mike Trout. Alex has the deeper team, but Colin's stars are a
threat to outshine the competition.
P.S. - While I appreciate the humor, the team names “Please
Cabrera” and “Cabrera Please” make this write-up extremely
confusing. I am not smart enough to remember who is who.
Season series: Alex 2-0 (14-5)
OFFENSE:
Alex
is a top four team in Runs, HR, RBI, and SB. He also has the odds-on
favorite to win the NL MVP in Andrew McCutchen, who is one home run
away from his third consecutive 20-20 season. It's tough to find
even one under-performer in Alex's lineup as most of his players are
ranked in the top 140. Colin, on the other hand, is more top-heavy
than Pam Anderson. It's Cabrera and Trout, and then....Pablo
Sandoval? Wil Myers? Now just a few weeks ago we saw Crout (I think
I like Trabrera better) go off for 22/11/32/5/.400 in a two week
span. If Colin can get that production, he has a chance. But
Cabrera is hobbled and the Tigers are taking it easy with him down
the stretch. At this time, Colin's top-heavy fantasy bosom consists
of a DD and a B cup.
Edge
– Alex
PITCHING:
Reviewing the team totals for the season, these guys are neck and
neck right down the line. And with Colin picking up a few closers
mid-way through the season, the Saves gap is wiped out for this week.
You could argue Alex has slightly better elite talent, but Colin
definitely has the deeper staff overall. Alex will be depending on
Zack Greinke to keep the mojo working (top 10 in the last 30 days) to
lead the staff. Beyond that he'll be looking to Francisco Liriano
and Matt Moore to pick up the slack for an injured Felix Hernandez.
Yahoo! says Felix will throw this weekend before the Mariners
determine when he next start might be, which takes him out of Alex's
match against Colin. Finally, Gentilli boasts a solid closer squad
with Addison Reed, Edward Mujica, and Mark Melancon, who has
apparently stolen the closer role from All-Star Jason Grilli since
Grilli was forced to the DL. Colin has a great two-headed monster in
Yu Darvish and Chris Sale, and Cole Hamels has bounced back in a huge
way after a slow start (top 6 in the last 30 days). He fills in the
rest of the rotation with solid arms and his closers (Koji Uehara,
Glen Perkins, and Steve Cishek) are all dependable. A really
interesting sub-plot of this match up will be the trade between these
two managers on July 28, where Jean Segura and Kyle Lohse went to
Alex for Chris Sale and Glen Perkins. In my opinion, it just
fortified the strengths of each team. Colin's depth should win out
here.
Edge – Colin
Prediction – The loss of Felix Hernandez handcuff's Alex's ability
to compete on the rubber, but with a hobbled Miguel Cabrera, Colin
can't keep up offensively. Alex takes this one, 6-4.
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