Wednesday, September 11, 2013

Weekly Match Ups - Week 23

Week 23's installment of the DDWPIPOTCFFBE – PE (Diamond Dynasty Weekly Preview In Pursuit Of The Chalice For Fantasy Baseball Excellence – PLAYOFF EDITION)

Last week – Ben and James hold on to the byes, TJ leapfrogs Alex for third (and changes the playoff picture in the process). Jarrett fizzles down the stretch and finishes on the outside looking in, Adrian's late season push falls short, and Drew out-sucks Richie for the 2013 Paul French Award.

After 22 weeks of fierce competition, the Diamond Dynasty finally has it's 6 playoff contestants in 2013. I first want to thank Sleepy's, Dell, Not You Average Joe's, Post-It, and Diamond for sponsoring the regular season match ups this year, and we look forward to continuing a mutually beneficial business relationship in the years ahead. I would also like to extend a congratulatory salute to Ben and James, who secured the bye weeks after a season-long showing of dominance. So without further adieu, the 2013 first round playoff match ups brought to you by:

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TJ (3rd) vs Kurt (6th) – The DL All-Stars vs the 6 win kid. To be honest, both teams are kind of limping into the playoffs. TJ was no worse than third place for essentially the entire year so he's proven that he's no fluke. But he's heading into the playoffs with Albert Pujols, Jose Bautista, and Matt Harvey on the DL. At this point in his career, Pujols is replacement level – the absence of the other two will be felt. TJ was 9-1-2 in the first 12 weeks but just 5-5 in the final 10 weeks with a 1-1 record against first round opponent Kurt. Despite his .486 winning percentage, The Commissioner had an 11-8-3 weekly record. He's only 2-6 in the last 8 weeks but the 10-week unbeaten streak should not be forgotten. His ability to squeak by, coupled with TJ's walking wounded, should make for a very close game. TJ beat Kurt 7-3 last week, but it easily could have been a 6-4 win for Kurt.

Season series: TJ 2-1 (17-12)

OFFENSE:

TJ finished in the top three in Runs, HR, and RBI but struggled in SB (10th) and BA (9th). The subtraction of Jose Bautista and Albert Pujols would presumably have the greatest effect in the three aforementioned strengths. Brandon Moss and Josh Donaldson have been top 40 players over the past month but it's hard to say how long they'll be able to keep that pace up. Jay Bruce is approaching 30 homers and seems to be heating up, if only a little. Kurt finished the year first in Runs and third in Average, but bottom third in RBI and SB. He is also facing some injury issues with Carlos Gonzalez unable to swing a bat and Bryce Harper at less than 100%. Recently, Shin Soo-Choo and Ian Desmond have been the leaders of the club and they have the talent to continue their level of play.

Edge – Kurt

PITCHING:

This is where it gets interesting. One man's strength is another man's weakness in most categories here. Kurt led the league in Wins and K's, but was last or second to last in Saves, ERA, and WHIP. TJ was top three in the latter three categories, but just middle of the pack in Wins and K's. TJ is already up 1-0 automatically as Kurt carries no closers, and he only needs to win 4 more categories as he possesses the tie breaker via home field advantage. A rotation without Matt Harvey is much less imposing (and those once strong ratios start to creep up as well). Even still, TJ has a guaranteed win and a big edge in two other categories.

Edge – TJ

Prediction: Really, really close one. But thanks to the home field advantage, TJ advances on a 4-4 tie.

Alex (4th) vs Colin (5th) – These two gentlemen were my pre-season first and second place picks, so I'm not surprised that they're battling for the 2013 crown. Alex is searching for his first win in three weeks (0-1-2), though he did have a four week winning streak before that. Conversely, Colin has played fairly well recently (3-2) following a 4 week losing streak. Gentilli is coming into the playoffs remarkably healthy, with no players on the DL. Colin cannot say the same, as Joe Mauer and Jason Heyward will not be able to go this week. But as we all know, Colin will sink or swim with the production of Miguel Cabrera and Mike Trout. Alex has the deeper team, but Colin's stars are a threat to outshine the competition.

P.S. - While I appreciate the humor, the team names “Please Cabrera” and “Cabrera Please” make this write-up extremely confusing. I am not smart enough to remember who is who.

Season series: Alex 2-0 (14-5)

OFFENSE:

Alex is a top four team in Runs, HR, RBI, and SB. He also has the odds-on favorite to win the NL MVP in Andrew McCutchen, who is one home run away from his third consecutive 20-20 season. It's tough to find even one under-performer in Alex's lineup as most of his players are ranked in the top 140. Colin, on the other hand, is more top-heavy than Pam Anderson. It's Cabrera and Trout, and then....Pablo Sandoval? Wil Myers? Now just a few weeks ago we saw Crout (I think I like Trabrera better) go off for 22/11/32/5/.400 in a two week span. If Colin can get that production, he has a chance. But Cabrera is hobbled and the Tigers are taking it easy with him down the stretch. At this time, Colin's top-heavy fantasy bosom consists of a DD and a B cup.

Edge – Alex

PITCHING:

Reviewing the team totals for the season, these guys are neck and neck right down the line. And with Colin picking up a few closers mid-way through the season, the Saves gap is wiped out for this week. You could argue Alex has slightly better elite talent, but Colin definitely has the deeper staff overall. Alex will be depending on Zack Greinke to keep the mojo working (top 10 in the last 30 days) to lead the staff. Beyond that he'll be looking to Francisco Liriano and Matt Moore to pick up the slack for an injured Felix Hernandez. Yahoo! says Felix will throw this weekend before the Mariners determine when he next start might be, which takes him out of Alex's match against Colin. Finally, Gentilli boasts a solid closer squad with Addison Reed, Edward Mujica, and Mark Melancon, who has apparently stolen the closer role from All-Star Jason Grilli since Grilli was forced to the DL. Colin has a great two-headed monster in Yu Darvish and Chris Sale, and Cole Hamels has bounced back in a huge way after a slow start (top 6 in the last 30 days). He fills in the rest of the rotation with solid arms and his closers (Koji Uehara, Glen Perkins, and Steve Cishek) are all dependable. A really interesting sub-plot of this match up will be the trade between these two managers on July 28, where Jean Segura and Kyle Lohse went to Alex for Chris Sale and Glen Perkins. In my opinion, it just fortified the strengths of each team. Colin's depth should win out here.

Edge – Colin

Prediction – The loss of Felix Hernandez handcuff's Alex's ability to compete on the rubber, but with a hobbled Miguel Cabrera, Colin can't keep up offensively. Alex takes this one, 6-4.

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