Tuesday, June 19, 2012

2012 Diamond Dynasty Mid-Season Review Spectatular


Helloooooo Dyamond Dynasty! I hope you've all had a wonderful first half of the season. It's been great to get together for the Red Sox game, Sunday Night Baseball, a cookout, our golf outing. A little note on the following information you are about to enjoy. I wrote most of this information over the last week, so I might have some of my information crossed up or whatever. You probably won't even notice anything unless it's your team, and if you do see anything, just shut up and keep it to yourself. The power rankings that I list in each team's individual breakdown is their rank within the Diamond Dynasty. The Keeper Delta thing is basically the difference between the player's projected value vs their actual value. And for those of you who say “well, that guy wouldn't be so badly ranked if he wasn't injured all year,” this may be true. But their rank is the value that they've given to their owners, and you make selections based on projected value. Ergo, all season on the DL is shitty return on investment.

Offense

1. Kurt (46)
2. Jarrett (38)
3. Colin (36)
4. Richie (35)
5. James (26)
6. TJ (23)
7. Alex (21)
8. Drew (19)
T-9. Ben (16)
T-9. Adrian (16)

Pitching

1. Drew (42)
2. Ben (40)
3. TJ (35)
4. Kurt (32)
5. James (27)
6. Alex (25)
7. Colin (23)
8. Jarrett (22)
9. Richie (18)
10. Adrian (11)

Overall

1. Kurt (78)
2. Drew (61)
3. Jarrett (60)
4. Colin (59)
5. TJ (58)
6. Ben (56)
7. Richie (53)
T-7. James (53)
9. Alex (46)




DFL. Adrian (27)

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Adrian “Snake Skin” Macdonald, 10th

2012 draft pick: 6
Last 4 weeks: 0-3-1
Best streak: 2-0-1
Worst streak: 0-6-1 (current)
Power Rankings: 10-10-10
Keeper Delta: -454
- Matt Kemp: 2 (77) = -75
- Dustin Pedroia: 17 (205) = -188
- Alex Rodriguez: 42 (89) = -47
- Jeremy Hellickson: 169 (313) = -144

Adrian started off smokin' hot last year but stumbled during the playoff push and finished the year in the middle of the pack. His struggles have continued into this year, as he is bringing up the rear in the 2012 Diamond Dynasty standings. It's tough to put all the blame on Adrian though, as many of his key contributors have spent significant time on the DL. Matt Kemp, arguably the best fantasy option in the game, has missed roughly half the season with a hamstring injury (and STILL ranks in the top 100, scary). Other notable offensive injuries include Jason Werth (half the season), Pablo Sandoval (26 games played) Lance Berkman (13 games played), and Dustin Pedroia (lingering thumb injury). A-Rod has played only slightly below market value, and Paul Konerko continues to defy father time (or Mother Nature) but their performances haven't been nearly enough to keep Adrian from the bottom of the offensive power rankings.

If the injury bug hampered his offense, it wiped out his pitching. Brian Wilson was out before the season started. Mariano Rivera is gone. Jair Jurrjens and Daniel Bard have been sent to the minors, and they're both struggling. Jeremy Hellickson, his lone pitching keeper, has pitched well (4-3, 3.45 ERA, 1.34 WHIP) and Aroldis Chapman has been fantastic. Jason Motte has held up his end of the bargain as well, but pitching staffs need to go more than three deep. Matt Moore has been garbage. Dan Haren has underperformed. And guys like Wandy Rodriguez and Hiroki Kuroda have performed like Wandy Rodriguez and Hideki Kuroda – good fill in pieces for the back of the rotation, but right now they're two of his better starters.

When everyone was healthy, Adrian got off to a good start losing only one week in April (2-1-1). But he's riding a 7 week winless streak, and looking for his first win since week 4. If the pitchers start living up to their potential and he can get healthy, Adrian might be able to sneak into the playoffs as a low seed.


Ben “Ziggy” O'Connor, 9th

2012 draft pick: 9
Last 4 weeks: 0-3-1
Best streak: 2-0
Worst streak: 0-4-1 (current)
Power Rankings: 9-2-6
Keeper Delta: -1297
- Jacoby Ellsbury: 13 (1094) = -1081
- Adrian Gonzalez: 9 (229) = -220
- Robinson Cano: 8 (52) = -44
- CJ Wilson: 81 (33) = +48

After suffering a heartbreaking defeat in the 2011 DD Finals on the last at-bat of the regular season, Ben has stumbled out of the gate in 2012. His offensive has struggled in particular, tied for last in the league. Jacoby Ellsbury has missed the majority of the season with a shoulder injury, Adrian Gonzalez has no power stroke, and Alex Avila has been an overall disappointment. Robinson Cano and Nelson Cruz have been decent, but the real MVP's have been Edwin Encarnacion and Josh Willingham. I'd write more about Ben's offense but I don't know who any of these people are. Wilin Rosario? Dayan Vicideo? Ben, do yourself a favor and go get Hideki Matsui and Bobby Abreu – proven players, no matter how old, always get the job done. Do my rings lie?

Ben  is manning yet another team that has major deficiencies on one side of the ball but dominates the other. He's in the top half of every pitching category and has a very top-heavy staff. Mr. Perfect, Matt Cain is the highest ranked starter this year and CJ Wilson has been almost as good. Brett Meyers, Fernando Rodney, and Joe Nathan have all been very good in their closer roles, and Heath Bell is starting to round back into form. Losing Cory Luebke was a tough blow, but the closers are really helping to keep the ERA and WHIP down.  Clay Buchholz is finally starting to turn it around in his last 5 starts, and if Mat Latos ever shows up that will really fill out a great pitching staff. Ben had pretty much been treading water before his recent struggles (0-4-1).  He's still very much in the race.


Colin “Fancy” Lancey, 8th

2012 draft pick: 5
Last 4 weeks: 2-2
Best streak: 2-0
Worst streak: 0-4-3
Power Rankings: 3-7-4
Keeper Delta: -288
- Miguel Cabrera: 1 (11) = -10
- Brett Lawrie: 45 (118) = -73
- Roy Halladay: 16 (218) = -202
- Cole Hamels: 34 (37) = -3

Colin finished 5th last year and had some tough keeper decisions to make. He parted ways with Paul Konerko, Elvis Andrus, Pablo Sandoval, Asdrubal Cabrera, and James Shields (how did he finish 5th?). He made the right choices for the most part, with Konerko the only one who hasn't regressed this year. Colin's had very good offensive production this year, as he has 6 of the top 57 players. Miguel Cabrera has been great (surprise surprise), and Starlin Castro, Dan Uggla, and Shane Victorino have been very good. Jose Altuve and Alejandro De Aza have well exceeded expectations, and Mike Trout looks like a stud in the making (number 5 ranked player over the last 30 days!!). Brett Lawrie is the only player that is noticeably under performing, but he hasn't been an albatross.

As good as his offense has been, his pitching has been just as bad. Cole Hamels and Ryan Vogelsong are his only two pitchers that are ranked inside the top 128 players this year. Roy Halladay is on the shelf, although he wasn't his normal self when healthy. Andrew Bailey and Sergio Santos occupy two other DL spots. Pretty much everyone on his staff has disappointed, from starters (Jarrod Parker, Ian Kennedy, Matt Garza, Daniel Hudson, Tim Hudson) to closers (J.J. Putz). Anibal Sanchez has been pretty good, and Andy Pettitte was as clutch a pick-up for Colin as he was for the Yankees. Colin hit a really rough stretch in the middle of the season, racking up an 0-4-3 record in weeks 2-8, though he's come back a little bit as of late. It's hard to tell where this team is going to end up in September.


TJ “Don't Grind My” Geers, 7th

2012 draft pick: 8
Last 4 weeks: 2-2
Best streak: 4-1
Worst streak: 0-2-1
Power Rankings: 6-3-5
Keeper Delta: -217
- Jose Bautista: 4 (32) = -28
- Albert Pujols: 3 (111) = -108
- Justin Upton: 10 (138) = -128
- Ian Kinsler: 18 (27) = -9

After a third place finish last year, TJ has struggled through the first half of 2012. But while his head to head record is poor, his power rankings suggest that he's just been snake-bitten. He's in the middle of the pack offensively, and in the top third in pitching. That being said, Albert Pujols' struggles have been well documented (although he's turned it on over the past month, 13th overall). Asdrubal Cabrera has experienced some regression as well, playing well below his projected value. Kinsler and Bautista have been justifiable keepers, although they're not dominating like they should be. Ryan Zimmerman has missed time on the DL, and Justin Upton and Brandon Phillips have been sputtering. On the flip side, Adam Dunn has returned to form, Drew Stubbs has come as advertised, Jordan Schafer has been a pleasant surprise, and Jonathan Lucroy (DL) and J.P. Arencibia have provided good production from the catcher spot. If Pujols, Kinsler, and Bautista can fulfill their top-20 talent, that might be enough to carry TJ through the playoff race.

TJ has benefited from some key pitching acquisitions early on. Ryan Dempster and Chris Capuano have been his two best pitchers and they both went undrafted, and spot starts from Barry Zito and Andy Pettitte have been frequent. Chris Perez has been one of the best closers all year, and Frank Francisco and Brandon League have provided saves, albeit with an inflated ERA. That being said, his high-end pitching talent has mostly underperformed. He took James Shields, Yu Darvish, Michael Pineda, and Ubaldo Jimenez within the first 8 rounds after keepers. Shields and Darvish have started slow, Pineda's out for the year, and Jimenez is a free agent (initially, that sentence was the most offensive thing I've ever typed. I refuse to put it in print, but I will tell it to you in person if you want to hear it). Despite keeping 4 offensive players and not getting a good return on early round investment, TJ's pitching has been above league average. TJ started slow (0-2-1), then picked it up (4-1) before slumping again (0-2). Expect his head to head record to improve and match his rotisserie scoring in the second half.


Drew “Double D” Donovan, 6th

2012 draft pick: 7
Last 4 weeks: 1-3
Best streak: 1-0-1
Worst streak: 1-5-1
Power Rankings: 8-1-2
Keeper Delta: -354
- Yovani Gallardo: 58 (332) = -274
- CC Sabathia: 32 (100) = -68
- Jered Weaver: 36 (53) = -17
- Justin Verlander: 19 (14) = +5

After dominating the regular season last year, Drew was edged out by Kurt, the eventual champion, in the semi-finals. He was smoked in the third place game and failed to finish in the money. Drew continued with his pitcher heavy strategy this year, keeping four pitchers – no one else kept more than 2, and the rest of the league kept 9 pitchers total. Starved for offense, Drew obviously took David Price with the 7th pick in the 2012 draft, and he officially ran out of excuses if he didn't finish first in every pitching category. Unfortunately for the rest of the league, Drew's gang of aces have pitched well and by my calculations, he has the best pitching numbers in the league. With his slew of pitching, he needed several of his offensive selections to have career years, and he's getting just that. My once beloved Joe Mauer is back to his days of old, hitting .300+ with an astounding lack of power. Mark Trumbo, Angel Pegan, and Rafael Furcal are having career years. Michael Bourn has already set a career high in homers (6) and he's still burning up the base paths. Derek Jeter has come back down to earth after his hot start, although he's still even with his projected stats. And despite the production, Drew is still in the bottom half of the league offensively.

With all that pitching, Drew can bring in some major bats without losing his fastball (ha!) on the pitching side. He's been involved in the only trade we've seen this season, sending under achieving starters Yovani Gallardo and Ricky Nolasco for Matt Capps, Will Middlebrooks, and Chase Utley. In other words, Drew has not done anything as of yet to improve his offense. Despite trading a keeper (Gallardo), Drew's pitching is still the best in the league. C.C. Sabathia, Jered Weaver, David Price, Colby Lewis and Justin Verlander, are all ranked in the top 100, and the latter two are in the top 50. The rest of the rotation is solid. Matt Capps, Alfredo Aceves, and Craig Kimbrel solidify the back end of the rotation, and Kyle Farnsworth and Drew Storen should be back around the all-star break. Drew only won two of the first nine weeks, but his losses have been small and his wins have been big so he's still in it. It'll be interesting to see if his pitching can carry him back to the postseason.


Alex “The Gentle Giant” Gentilli, 5th

2012 draft pick: 4
Last 4 weeks: 0-3-1
Best streak: 3-0-1
Worst streak: 0-3-1 (current)
Power Rankings: 7-6-9
Keeper Delta: +1
- Curtis Granderson: 22 (19) = +3
- Giancarlo Stanton: 26 (59) = -33
- Andrew McCutchen: 25 (13) = +12
- David Wright: 31 (12) = +19

The new poster child (and what a good looking poster child he is) of the crazy Yahoo! scoring system, Alex missed the 2011 DD postseason by mere percentage points. Despite keeping 4 hitters and stocking up on offense in the draft (5 of his first 7 picks were position players), Alex has one of the least productive offenses in the league. All 4 keepers have had a great first half, ranking in the top 60 and three in the top 20, but he's had mediocre production from his other starters. He cut ties with Adam Dunn in mid April, who is back to being one of the best home run hitters in the game. Brian McCann, Elvis Andrus and Desmond Jennings haven't played to their abilities, and he can't seem to find a reliable 2B/MI. All in all, his line up doesn't look all that bad. The wild card might be Ryan Howard, though there is still no timetable for his return.

Alex is in a slightly better situation on the bump. Zack Greinke, Brandon Morrow, Chris Sale, and a resurgent Josh Johnson lead the way, while solid years from Mark Buehrle and Erik Bedard round out his rotation. He's rolling with a lot of closing options too, with Joel Hanrahan, Santiago Castilla, and Ernesto Frieri all ranking in the top 100, and Huston Street and Jonathan Broxton sitting at about the 150 mark. If Max Scherzer could ever put it together, he'd have arguably the best top 7 starters in the league. Tight losses and comfortable wins have propelled him in the top half of the league to this point. Alex's team has rounded out nicely, and I fully expect him to be in contention in the fall.


James “Greek” Maimonis, 4th

2012 draft pick: 1
Last 4 weeks: 3-1
Best streak: 2-0-1
Worst streak: 0-2-1
Power Rankings: 5-5-8
Keeper Delta: -1223
- Troy Tulowitzki: 5 (134) = -129
- Cliff Lee: 24 (208) = -184
- Mark Teixeira: 23 (115) = -92
- Rickie Weeks: 80 (898) = -818

Mams had a rough season last year, finishing in last place. With the first pick he took Jose Reyes over Stephen Strasburg, and I never formally thanked him for that. Thank you Mams! Reyes is struggling in his first season in Miami, playing way below his projected value. His keepers haven't helped any either; Tulo is on the DL, Cliff Lee hasn't won a game yet (repeat: HASN'T WON A GAME), Mark Teixeira has been very pedestrian, and Rickie Weeks has been the worst injury-free keeper this year.  And yet, James is in the middle of the pack offensively. Adam Jones is a top-5 player, David Ortiz is dominating, and Matt Holliday has been damn good. Once Tulo and Bonifacio come off the DL Mams should be able to put up bigger offensive numbers, but he'll never be leading the league.

Mams is also 5th in pitching power rankings, despite Lee's win-less start (3.48 ERA, 1.12 WHIP – it's not his fault. Just for funsies, Clay Buchholz is 7-2, 5.38 ERA, 1.53 WHIP. Sorry you had to see that James). I don't think anyone could have predicted that Jim Johnson and James McDonald were going to be so good, but they along with Gio Gonzalez form a top 50 three-headed monster for John Corey's former neighbor. The rest of his staff is full of mid-tier guys playing slightly above their heads like Kyle Loshe, Jeff Samardzija, Tom Wilhelmsen (who?), Wade Miley, Franklin Morales, and Jose Quintana. Even if these guys regress a bit, Drew Smyly will be able to contribute again once off the DL, and Ervin Santana, after a VERY rough start to the season, is coming off a one-hit shutout of the D-Backs (baseball makes no sense sometimes). Unfortunately, it looks like Jaime Garcia might miss the rest of the year with a shoulder injury. Mams has been pretty much win 2, lose 2 year. He'll have to keep his foot on the gas if he wants to make it to the post-season.


Jarrett “Wizard” Staaf, 3rd

2012 draft pick: 3
Last 4 weeks: 4-0
Best streak: 6-1 (current)
Worst streak: 1-2-1
Power Rankings: 2-8-3
Keeper Delta: -992
- Ryan Braun: 6 (3) = +3
- Josh Hamilton: 33 (1) = +32
- Tim Lincecum: 28 (1021) = -993
- Clayton Kershaw: 15 (49) = -34

Jarrett's having a great bounce back season this year after failing to make the playoffs last year. His offense is off the charts, and he's one of only two teams to be ranked in the top three in the overall power rankings and head to head record. He has a fantastic offensive Keeper Delta, with Josh Hamilton and Ryan Braun ranking first and third overall, respectively. He rounds out his stellar outfield with Melky Cabrera, who is the seventh best offensive player through the first half of the year. I can't imagine that we've seen a better outfield in the Diamond Dynasty's decade of existence. He also has Josh Reddick in his Utility spot, which makes for 4 outfielders in the top 40. He's also getting good production from David Freese and Michael Cuddyer. All these guys have been so good that it's easy to overlook those who haven't been carrying their weight. Carlos has been a huge disappointment, Paul Goldschmidt has been below average, and Michael Young, Dee Gordon, and Ben Zobrist have all performed as men of lower stock. His historic outfield is just that good.

His pitching, on the other hand, hasn't been as good. Let's just get this one out of the way – Tim Lincecum. WTF Tim? Jarrett shells out a first-round-after-keepers draft pick for his rights, and he lays a huge dump on him. I mentioned that Rickie Weeks was the worst non-injured keeper this year...not true. Timmy stinks bigtime. On the flip side Clayton Kershaw, his other pitching keeper, has played only slightly worse than his projection which was damn high to begin with. He's getting good seasons out of Jonathan Papelbon, Kenley Jansen, Johan Santana, and Lance Lynn. Arguably his best pitcher, Brandon Beachy, is sitting on the DL along with Neftali Feliz and Brett Anderson. Overall, it's not a bad staff but he still sits 8th in the pitching power rankings. I'm guessing this is coming from his lack of mid-level talent. He's got all this top-100-or-thereabouts talent, but then it really drops off. If he can find a couple of mid-tier guys, he'll be a very tough beat. Jarrett started off the season mediocre but is on an absolutely beastly tear right now, winning 6 of his last 7. Jarrett will be a major player for the rest of the year.


Richie “The Chosen One” Travers, 2nd

2012 draft pick: 2
Last 4 weeks: 3-1
Best streak: 4-1 (current)
Worst streak: 0-2
Power Rankings: 4-9-7
Keeper Delta: -632
- Prince Fielder: 14 (45) = -31
- Hanley Ramirez: 21 (66) = -45
- Jon Lester: 60 (465) = -405
- Felix Hernandez: 29 (180) = -151

And now, the moment you've all been waiting for, yours truly. Y'all probably just skipped to this section anyway, and I don't blame you. Richie's offensive has been solid all year, thanks to late round steals. Carlos Beltran and Andre Ethier were taken in the 14th and 16th rounds after keepers. Beltran is a top-10 talent and Ethier is leading the NL in RBI's. Prince Fielder and Hanley Ramirez, while not quite living up to their lofty expectations, are contributing to the offensive output. Richie's done a good job of surrounding his top level talent with mid-level guys like Corey Hart and Billy Butler. He's been patient, probably to a fault, on his second-basemen Dustin Ackley and Neil Walker, and he hasn't quite gotten return on investment from Mike Napoli (although he basically single-handedly won him week 2). 

Richie's pitching has cooled off as of late. At one point, Stephen Strasburg, Jake Peavy, and Felix Hernandez were all top 5 pitchers. Strasburg (first round pick) and Peavy (last round pick!) are still dealing and ranked in the top 35, but Felix has fallen off the wagon. Lester has sucked, Beckett has been ok, and John Axford and Jose Valverde have been pretty dang disappointing. Overall, he ranks near the bottom in pitching power rankings. Aside from his top 2 or 3 guys, there just isn't much there. His overall power ranking suggests a big downturn in the second half. Ever the optimist, he has no fear of a potential regression and looks to his recent performance for reassurance. Richie will make the playoffs. Interesting to note, Richie sits in second place and has made the least moves this year (10). Who has the most moves, you should ask?


Kurt “The Champion” Gottschalk, 1st

2012 draft pick: 10
Last 4 weeks: 3-0-1
Best streak: 8-0-1 (current)
Worst streak: 0-2
Power Rankings: 1-4-1
Keeper Delta: -456
- Evan Longoria: 12 (446) = -434
- Jay Bruce: 50 (62) = -12
- Carlos Gonzalez: 11 (2) = -9
- Joey Votto: 7 (8) = -1

Why, Senior Kurt would have the most moves! Pretty interesting that both strategies seem to work out well. So yeah, Kurt's been doing okay this year. First place in head to head. First place in power rankings. First place in offensive power rankings. And his DL? Evan Longoria, Brett Gardner, and Carl Crawford. He's leading 4 of the 5 offense categories, and he's 6th in stolen bases (again, Gardner and Crawford on the DL). Joey Votto is hitting .500 – no shit – over his last 23 games. Jason Kipnis is a top-10 player (what?). Cargo is retarded. Adrian Beltre, Jay Bruce, Ian Desmond, and Austin Jackson have been damn good also. All told, Kurt has 3 players in the top 10 (4 if you count R.A. Dickey), and he's getting arguably the best 3B back sometime in the next month. Downright scary offense.

Pitching hasn't been much worse for The Commish, who's riding Dickey's phenomenal year (as I type this, he's finishing up his second consecutive CG 1-hit shutout). Madison Bumgarner and Johnny Cueto have been awesome too, both ranked in the top 40. The rest of his staff – all starters – are middle to low tier guys, though many of those options I'm assuming are spot starters. If he can successfully sell off some of his potent offensive pieces for stud pitchers, he's going to run away with the regular season. Hell, he's probably already there. Kurt lost the first two weeks of the season, and he's still waiting for his third loss. A tie in week 8 (tip of the cap to Ben) is the only thing standing in his way of a 9 week winning streak, highlighted by 3 non-closer shutouts. Can anyone bring his reign of terror to an end? Side note: his worst rank in any of the 10 scoring categories, except for saves in which he is last due to his non-closer strategy, is 6th place. Adrian's best rank in any category is 6th.

But all this gets wiped out after 22 weeks. And therein lies the importance of head to head vs rotisserie; much like the NFL playoffs, it just takes one week for the mighty to fall in the playoffs. 22 weeks of hard work, all dashed away in a mere 7 days. It can be a cruel fate, but I'll be damned if it doesn't make it interesting!



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