2016 Playoff Probabilities

This is a re-post of last year's blog with updated numbers.

Congratulations!  You made it to the playoffs.  It was a long hard road filled with adversity and struggle, but you drafted and managed your way into a chance at the Chalice.  As we all know, the Head to Head matchup style can be cruel and unforgiving.  In 2005, Ben put on the greatest display of managing in league history.  His 144 wins and .666 winning percentage still stand as the greatest display of prolonged dominance this league has seen.  And despite finishing 34.5 games ahead of his first round opponent, he went 0-2 in the playoffs and didn't even cash.  It may not be fair, but god damn it it’s exciting.  As you would expect, Ben’s experience is not typical.  In the 13 years of Yahoo! documented league history…….

The #1 seed (COLIN) has gone on to win the Chalice six times (Adrian ‘03, Colin ‘04, James ‘07, Kurt ‘12, Ben ‘13, Richie '14). They've lost in the finals twice (Adrian ‘06, Ben ‘10). The eight finals appearances is the most from any playoff seed. With the most championships coming from this position, you could argue that the #1 seed has had the most sucess. But an argument could be made for…….

The #2 seed (ALEX), which is fresh off it's second championship (Adrian ‘08, Jarrett '15). While it can't match the finals success of the #1 seed (four losses in championship games: Alex ‘03, James ‘05, Ben ‘07, Alex ‘12), it holds a dominating 6-1 record in the consolation game (Richie ‘04, Jarrett ‘06, Colin ‘09, Alex ‘10, TJ ‘11, James ‘13). The #2 seed has cashed in every single season except one (Jarrett, 2014).  Overall, more than 80% of the teams that earned a bye have finished in the money, which is a figure that declines sharply once you hit………..

The #3 seed (JARRETT), where less than half (46%) have cashed. #3 seeds are the only seed aside from the #1 seed with a winning record in the title game, winning two of their three appearances (Ben ‘06, Drew ‘09). The numbers are similar for…………….

The #4 seed (JAMES), who has also gotten paid 46% of the time.  This seed represents the most non-bye championship appearances (five); two winners (Alex ‘05, Kurt ‘11) and three losers (Richie ‘08, James ‘09, Kurt '15).  #4 seeds have not fared well in the consolation game capturing just one win (Colin '14) against three losses (Richie ‘03, TJ ‘10, Alex ‘13).  Add it all up and the #4 seed is 3-6 in money games. The seed you must avoid at all costs is…………..

The #5 seed (RICHIE), who’s 8% cash rate makes it by far and away the least lucrative playoff seed in history.  With zero trips to the finals and one third place finish (Kurt ‘07), there’s no doubt this is the cement-shoe seed.  #5 seeds are 4-9 in the first round of the playoffs and 1-7 in their last eight, meaning more than two-thirds of their seasons end in the dreaded, pointless double consolation game. It’s amazing how much better it’s been to be…………..

The #6 seed (TJ), who’s one championship (James ‘10) and 38% cash rate is far more attractive.  Sure, they've taken their lumps; they've come in last more than any other seed (54%), but with three second-place finishes (Alex ‘04, Ben ‘11, Ben '14) and a cash back third (Colin '03), it’s not all that bad.  Plus, you’re automatically the Cinderella story that everyone roots for.  Sot you got that goin’ for you, which is nice.  But of course if you can’t read, there’s always this:

	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	$$$	Share
1 Seed	46%	15%	8%	31%	NA	NA	69%	33%
2 Seed	15%	31%	46%	8%	NA	NA	92%	23%
3 Seed	15%	8%	23%	15%	31%	8%	46%	14%
4 Seed	15%	23%	8%	23%	23%	8%	46%	17%
5 Seed	0%	0%	8%	23%	38%	31%	8%	1%
6 Seed	8%	23%	8%	0%	8%	54%	38%	12%

2016 Early Season Recap

Colin has jumped out to a fast start in 2016.  In fact, his seven straight wins out of the gate constitutes his longest winning streak ever!  Prior to this run, he ripped off a five week winning streak during weeks 13-17 of 2009.  If he wins 6-3 or better this week he will have his best ever start through 8 weeks.  Here are the all-time best records to start a season through eight weeks:

Manager	Year	Wins	Losses	Ties	%
Ben	2005	59	20	1	0.744%
Richie	2014	52	24	4	0.675%
TJ	2011	52	24	4	0.675%
Alex	2014	50	25	5	0.656%
Kurt	2010	50	26	4	0.650%

Jarrett’s 29-9-2 record over the last month has kept him within shouting distance after a slow start.  It’s his second best record over a 4 game stretch, falling short of last year’s 30-10 effort through weeks 10-13.  It seems as though Jarrett has finally figured out this fantasy baseball thing.  And I suppose that Kershaw guy helps.

From the hottest stock to the coldest, Adrian continues his sub-zero streak of futility:

Adrian’s posted back to back seasons with 23 wins through 7 weeks, an awful way to start the season.  What’s worse, he hasn’t even played Colin or Jarrett yet, his division’s top two teams.  Chris Archer, Justin Upton, and Tyson Ross (all ranked 600 or worse) have taken the wind out of his sails.  Here are the worst starts through 7 weeks in Diamond Dynasty history:

Manager	Year	Wins	Losses	Ties	%	Regular Season Finish
Kurt	2005	18	47	5	.293	3rd
Drew	2013	21	46	3	.321	10th
James	2011	22	46	2	.329	10th
Paul	2004	20	43	7	.336	12th
Adrian	2015	23	46	1	.336	10th

Kurt went on to lose week 8 of the 2005 season before ripping off the second best 14 week streak to close the season.  His 86-45-9 (.646) record through weeks 9-22 is second only to Jarrett’s 2014, 95-40-5 (.696) mark.  Jarrett’s 97-38-5 (.711) record through weeks 8-21 of that year stand as the greatest 14 week run in Diamond Dynasty history.

Moving to the better, more attractive division, Kurt’s rough start to 2016 is his third worst ever, behind his historic 2005 effort and 2014’s 25-40-5 (.393) mark.  He’s lost all three matchups to his hand-picked divisional foes and is already in panic trade mode.

The opposite is true for Ben, who boasts a perfect 3-0 divisional mark (albeit behind an unspectacular 15-12-3 record).  The division leader, Alex, is already a pathetic 14 wins behind Ben’s historic 2005 season while Richie, who gave all his picks to Alex and was ridiculed for it, sits a mere 1.5 games behind.  Suck it, haters.  

2016 Schedule

As explained in the commissioner note, the schedule needs to be re-done.  Here is how I'm doing it:



Step 1:  Copy last year's schedule

Step 2:  Replace teams with numbers 1-10 (ex. Richie=1, Ben=2, etc)

Step 3:  Pull names out of a hat and attach them to the numbers.  The results:

  1=Alex
  2=Colin
  3=Kurt
  4=Richie
  5=Tim
  6=Jarrett
  7=TJ
  8=Adrian
  9=James
10=Ben

2016 Story Lines

Adrian’s franchise enters 2016 in a complete tailspin.  Of the 132 teams in the 14 year history of this league, his 2015 effort stands alone as the worst by any measure.  On the whole, he missed the playoffs for the fourth consecutive year and sixth of the last seven, both records.  He did well to revamp his keeper options but they are still average (by pre-season rank), and he comes into Sunday with a below-average draft board.  2016 looks like another uphill battle for the once great franchise.

Alex saw his streak of three consecutive playoff appearances snapped last season but orchestrated possibly the finest tank job we’ve seen.  He enters 2016 with the strongest draft board, the third best core keepers, and a top prospect last pick flex.  He’s the odds on favorite to win the regular season and could challenge Ben’s 144-win record set in 2005 - Alex’s only championship season.  This season, it’s finals or bust.

Ben missed the playoffs in 2016 for the first time in six seasons, falling one season shy of tying the record shared by Kurt and TJ.  His commanding lead in career victories was cut down significantly and now leads TJ by 7 wins for most all time.  He returns this season with average projected keepers but a draft board second to only Alex thanks to his activity on the trade block last season.  He has to like his chances entering the DD’s 15th year.

Colin had a solid 2015 season, capturing his first #1 seed since 2004.  Unfortunately for Colin, the similarities stopped there.  He lost both of his matches en route to a fourth place finish and continues to search for championship #2.  The playoff appearance was his fifth straight and seventh in the last eight seasons, both impressive marks.  And judging by the peripherals he’s pointed towards another playoff run.  He enters 2016 with the strongest Core Keepers and a potential star as a flex (Schwarber, last pick).  He somehow also bolstered his draft board, posting the third highest average draft pick.  Colin has the pieces in place to challenge for a bye in 2016.

James stormed back at the end of last season but it was too little too late.  He ended up missing the playoffs despite posting a .500 record, the fifth-best record for a non-playoff team in league history.  James’s first eight seasons yielded five playoff births, a 9-3 post-season record, and two championships; his last five seasons, just two playoff births and a 1-3 post-season record.  He enters 2016 with the worst ranked Core Keepers and a below average draft board, but he has the most attractive flex (Carlos Correa) and the best possible price (last pick).  James projects to be in the 5-6-7-8 clusterfuck for the playoff push.

Jarrett used 2014’s momentum to catapult him to a 2015 title, the first in franchise history.  Since week 9, 2014 - a 36 week stretch - Jarrett has a .618 winning percentage.  That would stand as the third best winning percentage ever, and he’s done it for nearly two full seasons.  Jarrett was the only team not to make a trade so his draft board is perfectly average.  His keepers, on the other hand, are anything but.  Kershaw and Goldschmidt headline the league’s second best set of Core Keepers, and some guy named Jose Fernandez as his flex which pushes his average keeper rank to #1.  The new bully on the block is the only person to earn byes in back to back seasons and shoots for his third straight in 2016.

Kurt returned to the playoffs last year after a one year absence and made serious noise, making it all the way to the finals.  He enters 2016 with a strong set of Core Keepers and a solid flex option.  

His draft board is on the weaker side, but so was Jarrett’s last season and we all saw how that turned out.  The only franchise to never tank, Kurt will very likely be in the mix in 2016.

Richie made it to the playoffs in back to back years for the first time since 03-04, but lost on a tiebreaker in the first round.  His keepers are slightly below average and he is dead last with a #174 average draft pick (which is actually better than the #181 average draft pick he had last year).  All in all, Richie will need good health and bit of luck to make franchise history with his third consecutive playoff appearance.

TJ returned to the post-season in 2015 after snapping a seven-season streak and came away with third place.  His 119 wins was tied for his third best regular season record ever and he now stands just 7 wins behind Ben for most wins in DD history.  Entering with average keepers but the second worst draft board, TJ will need to draft well to field a playoff-worthy team in 2016.

Tim set the record for most wins by an expansion manager in their first year, and became just the second expansion manager to lead a team to the playoffs in his first year at the helm.  But the kid gloves come off this time around.  With below average keepers and a slightly above average draft board (and no bonus first round picks “just because”), Tim needs to take all he’s learned in his rookie season to avoid a sophomore slump.  He’ll need a strong showing on draft day.

Opening Post 2016

Welcome back!  I will not be writing to a schedule this year, just randomly popping in.  As always, I encourage others to jump in as it will make the league more enjoyable.  And as always, I foresee little enthusiasm for this request.

Here's how 2016 is shaping up:

Name

Adrian

Alex

Ben

Colin

James

Jarrett

Kurt

Richie

Tim

TJ

Adrian edges out Alex in the name department with a "tie-breaker" of sorts, as we had to actually go to the second letter to determine who was first place.  Nice job Adrian.  Conversely, TJ sits in the basement thanks to his nickname.  If he just would have dropped the Jr, he could have at least tied for last.  Questionable managerial decisions there.

Core 4 projections (based on Yahoo Preseason rank)

	Core 4
Colin	11
Jarrett	12
Alex	18
Kurt	24
TJ	25
Ben	26
Richie	27
Adrian	32
Tim	34
James	53

Colin edges out Jarrett in average Core 4 preseason ranks, highlighted by the usual suspects.  Jarrett and Alex join him in the top tier, and everyone except James basically falls into tier #2.  

Core 4 projections with Flex (based on Yahoo Preseason rank)

	Core 4	w Flx
Jarrett	12	16
Colin	11	18
Kurt	24	30
TJ	25	32
Tim	34	34
Alex	18	35
Richie	27	41
James	53	44
Ben	26	47
Adrian	32	51

When adding the flex picks, Jarrett's average preseason rank jumps to #1 thanks to Jose Fernandez.  Colin stays close behind with Cubs sensation Kyle Schwarber, and the rest of the league is pretty evenly spread out from there.  Interestingly enough, James is the only team to experience an increase in average preseason rank with the addition of his flex keeper, an effect of having both the lowest average core keeper rank and flexing stud-to-be Carlos Correa, who has the highest preseason rank for all flex-eligible players.  

Flex pick

	Core 4	w Flx	Flx Pk
TJ	25	32	88
Jarrett	12	16	90
Tim	34	34	100
Kurt	24	30	129
Richie	27	41	255
Colin	11	18	LAST
Alex	18	35	LAST
Ben	26	47	LAST
Adrian	32	51	LAST
James	53	44	LAST

Half of the league maxed out the Flex keeper option with 5 managers sacrificing a last round pick, and Richie was nearly there.  TJ's flex was the most expensive, giving up his 9th round pick (88th overall) for Carlos Carrasco.  He only owed his 10th round pick but no longer owns it.  

Average Draft Pick

	Core 4	w Flx	Flx Pk	Avg Pk
Alex	18	35	LAST	114
Ben	26	47	LAST	121
Colin	11	18	LAST	145
Tim	34	34	100	150
Jarrett	12	16	90	151
Adrian	32	51	LAST	159
James	53	44	LAST	162
Kurt	24	30	129	163
TJ	25	32	88	168
Richie	27	41	255	174

And finally, Alex leads the pack with draft picks.  Ben is the only one who comes close, with two picks in the first round and picks #96, #99, #102, and #104.  On the other end of the spectrum, Richie will not make a pick until 34 picks are off the board - the longest stretch of anyone this year.

But it's not all doom and gloom - far from it.  Here's what last year looked like:

1. Ben - 16 points

2. Colin - 15 points

3. Tim - 14 points

4. James - 11 points

4. Kurt - 11 points

4. TJ - 11 points

7, Jarrett - 10 points

8. Alex - 8 points

9. Richie - 7 points

10. Adrian - 5 points

Statistically, Ben looked to have the most promising mix of average draft position and keepers but missed the playoffs entirely.  Last year's champion projected to miss the playoffs.  And Adrian....well we all knew he was going to be bad (sorry Adrian).

This season, Alex has a top-tier core four, a last round flex, and the best draft board.  I think we can all agree that anything less than breaking Ben's 144-win record is a failure for Alex.  Oh by the way, remember last year when we all thought TJ was a lock to make the playoffs?  

TJ
41	Jacoby Elsbury
42	Yu Darwish

Stay frosty big guy.