Draft Study

I had forgotten all about this little project. 

This morning as I was dusting off my "Super Sheet" that holds all our historical match ups, I came across a google sheet called "Draft Study".  I didn't unleash it last year (I think because the data was too limited) but with all the hubbub over draft pick trades this spring plus another year of data, it's probably useful enough now to start to look at some trends. 

I captured the last three years of draft board data (so, 30 instances) and it's pretty interesting.  Kurt, pay attention.

First, I looked at the average draft position (ADP).  For the record, the default ADP (meaning, no pick trades from the previous year) is 151.  Keep in mind also that 60% of the league makes the playoffs every year.

2016 Alex had an ADP of 114, the highest position in the past three years.  He went on to finish in 2nd place, as you'd expect.  2016 Ben was right behind with an ADP of 121;  he missed the playoffs and finished in 7th place.

Rather than go through all 30 instances I broke it down into thirds, which kind of works out because it's three mini-seasons (basically 10 teams in each grouping).  

The top third, i.e. those with ADP of 145 or better, made the playoffs 70% of the time.  So, in the past three years, tanking has only resulted in a 10% increase in chances at the playoffs.  

The middle third, i.e. those with ADP between 150 and 156, made the playoffs 50% of the time, meaning those teams with an average-ish draft board have made the playoffs at a 10% lower clip than average!

The final third, i.e. those with ADP of 158 or worse, have made the playoffs 60% of the time, right in line with the number of teams that make the playoffs in any given year.  Furthermore, four of the top five and six of the top seven worst ADP's have made the playoffs!

This is not to say that a worse ADP is preferable, obviously not.  The "top third" in ADP earned half of the byes, and the three teams that missed the playoffs in that "top third" were on the bubble (7th, 7th, and 8th).  The three 9th place and three 10th place finishers all had their ADP ranked in the lower 2/3.  Essentially, a good ADP means you're all but guaranteed to be at least competitive whereas a bad ADP allows for those "blow up" type teams that bottom out.

In summation, the results show that ADP is not a strong indicator of playoff qualification.  Three years of draft data suggests it is more correct to say that a team with a high ADP will be competitive, not that a team with a low ADP will not be competitive.