Playoff Central: Semifinal Recap and Finals Preview!

TJ said it best in the chat; “Another year, another playoff heartbreak Sunday.”  This year’s post-season seems to be especially painful with each of the four playoff match ups thus far coming down to the final day (and some to the final at bat).  Heading into Sunday Night Baseball, a number of players held the balance of either match up in their hands.

Heading into Sunday’s slate, TJ and Alex were tied 4-4 (I think) with RBI and Saves tied.  After averaging 7 RBI/day for a number of weeks, TJ posted one measly RBI and went on to lose that category.  Alex’s Blake Treinen closed the door on the Phillies Sunday afternoon which gave Gentilli a 6-4 advantage heading into the night game, LAD @ WSH.  TJ needed a save from Jansen and 3 RBI from Daniel Murphy to pull back even, activating his tie breaker.  He got neither, and Alex punched his ticket to the finals. 

Richie began Sunday with a 5-3 lead over Jarrett with 8/10 categories undecided.  Here’s what my Sunday looked like from about 5:00 pm to 11:30 pm and yes, it’s rant-y:

Jarrett has Wade Davis and we were tied in saves, so I tuned into the Cubs game.  As the Cubs pushed across a run in the 7^th to break a 3-3 tie, the Cubs announcers wondered if Wade Davis would be available to pitch for a third day in a row, which was a very cruel ruse.  Of course he came out for the save.  To make matters worse, the final out not just a warning track fly ball but a “WadeDavis Dropped to His Knees Because He Thought He Blew The Save” fly ball.  About an hour later, the San Francisco Giants expanded their lead to 7-2 and blocked a save chance for my Sam Dyson, cementing the category for Jarrett and giving him a 4-3 lead.  As Stephen Strasburg delivered the first pitch of the final game of the week all five offensive categories were up for grabs.  HR, R, and SB were tied, Jarrett had slim leads in AVG (.004) and RBI (2) and started Trea Turner against my Chris Taylor.  Here’s Taylor’s second atbat, special fuck you to Jayson Werth.  Fucking spell your name right dickface.  In the top of the ninth, Taylor was due up fifth.  The Nats bring in their closer up 7-1, fuck you too Dusty.  The inning goes strike out, single, walk (!!!), slow ground ball to first base.  They don’t go for the double play.  Chris Taylor steps up to the plate with 2 outs in the top of the ninth.  A single would swing 2 categories, a HR would swing 4 – that’s how close this was. 

Mighty Chris Taylor popped out. 

But onto the Finals!  Congratulations to Jarrett and Alex who are battling for the Chalice.  Here’s some historical context:

We know Jarrett’s story by now.  He’s gunning for his third straight chalice, which would be a Diamond Dynasty first in both total titles and consecutive titles.  His victory over Richie was his sixth straight playoff victory – that’s a new record. 

Alex makes his first finals appearance since 2012 where he lost to Kurt.  This is Alex’s fifth finals appearance which is second only to Ben’s six.  Alex is 1-3 all time with the Chalice on the line.

Jarrett and Alex have played in the post season twice (2006 consolation, 2016 semi-finals) and Jarrett has won both.

3 seeds (Jarrett) are 3-1 in finals appearances.

5 seeds (Alex) have never made it to the finals.

This is the fourth finals in league history that does not feature a team who earned a bye week.  The others were in 2005, 2009, and 2011.

Both guys are throwing out double digit projected SP’s so the counting stats will be sky high.  It’s just going to come down to who has a hot week.  Jarrett’s tie breaker looms large, but as I’m releasing this write up a day late, Alex had a fantastic offensive Monday which has given him a strong early lead.  Should be another exciting final!

Playoff Central: Quarterfinal Recap & Semifinal Preview

While TJ and Richie kicked their feet up and enjoyed their bye weeks, competition was at an all-time high in the quarterfinal round as both matches were still undecided late into Sunday.  Facing a 5-4 deficit and only needing a 5-5 tie to advance, (4) Colin needed a save from Blake Parker to break a 2-2 tie in the Saves category.  That dream went up in smoke when Parker came out in the 8th inning to protect a 5-3 lead, effectively ending Colin’s season.  It stings a little more when you find out that Parker’s blown save on Monday – ironically a save that would have given Colin the edge he needed – likely caused Mike Sciocia to look elsewhere for the team’s next save opportunity, which happened to be on Sunday.  It’s another disappointing end to the season for Colin, who’s now gone 13 seasons without a championship.

For his efforts, Alex is awarded a date with TJ who finished with the 3rd best regular season in league history.  While the malnourished Asian woman finished on a low note (1-2, 7-16-7 to finish the season) he still fields an imposing team headlined by young sluggers Rhys Hoskins (#1 last 30 days) and Aaron Judge (#38 last 7 days), who (gulp) has appeared to find himself in the last week or two.  We get a great showdown between the first half MVP (Judge) and second half MVP, Giancarlo Stanton.  Either of these guys can win a week for a team and while Judge is going a little better right now, Stanton still has a legit shot at 60 HR and will be trying his damnedest to get there.

Another good “head to head” match will be Alex’s Strasburg vs TJ’s Robbie Ray, who are both ranked in the top 10 over the last 7, 14, and 30 days.  Michael Wacha was brilliant for Alex last week, netting 2 wins and 13 K’s with low ratios.  TJ has the better closers by name, but save chances are a fickle friend (just ask Colin).  Both teams enter the semi-finals remarkably healthy.  Overall, TJ’s offense is clicking on all cylinders (14 HR during last week’s bye) and with the tie-breaker in hand, he’s the favorite to advance to the finals here.

Jarrett’s match with Tim came down to Sunday Night Baseball.  Trevor Bauer, the seventh SP of the day between these two, swung K, ERA, and WHIP for Jarrett.  Tim nearly pulled the upset on the back of Francisco Lindor’s great game but it wasn’t enough.  Jarrett avoided the irony of ironies (he traded Lindor to Tim in the offseason) and advanced 5-4.

Jarrett now sets his sights on Richie, who finished a comfortable 11 games ahead of Jarrett in the regular season.  Richie went 10-1 over the final 11 weeks in the regular season.  His only loss in that stretch came against – yep, you guessed it – Jarrett.  Jarrett has owned Richie in 2017 thus far, beating him in both matches by a combined 12-7 margin.  Richie’s offense was a force in the regular season winning at a 69.5% clip, but they’ve cooled off lately (three players in the top 200 ranked).  The loss of Miguel Sano compounded with Eduardo Nunez’s DTD status leaves him with an iffy 3B situation.  Jarrett’s offense is faring better of late and he has three guys ranked 36th or better over the last 7 days, but he’s also recently lost Michael Conforto for the season after he made the unnatural baseball motion of swinging a bat.  Seriously, if you haven’t seen it, it’s the most Mets thing ever.  Jarrett managed to advance last week despite his cornerstone 1B Paul Goldschmidt missing substantial time, but he’s back now and appears to be 100% healthy (HR on Sunday) which is just fucking awesome news.

Clayton Kershaw is also back for the two time defending champion and could potentially get a two start week if the Dodgers want to keep him on a regular schedule (please Dodgers, don’t do this).  But truthfully, all of Jarrett’s pitchers have been struggling recently.  Bumgardner and Keuchel have ERA’s above 5 over the last two weeks and Dellin Betances is back to a setup role in New York.  Richie’s Staaf has been sharper with as SP’s Corey Kluber (projected 2 start week), Luke Weaver, and Luis Severino all sitting in the top 35 ranked players over the last 30 days.  In the bullpens, Richie has the quantity, Jarrett has the quality.  Regardless who wins, think about this: after combining for 0 titles from 2002-2013, there is a 50-50 shot that the last four titles will belong to them.

Playoff History:

Alex is 2-0 against TJ (6-4 in the 2005 quarterfinals, 5-4 in the 2010 consolation game)
Richie and Jarrett have never faced each other in the playoffs.

Playoff Probabilities

This is a re-post of last year's blog with updated numbers.

Congratulations!  You made it to the playoffs.  It was a long hard road filled with adversity and struggle, but you drafted and managed your way into a chance at the Chalice.  As we all know, the Head to Head matchup style can be cruel and unforgiving.  In 2005, Ben put on the greatest display of managing in league history.  His 144 wins and .666 winning percentage still stand as the greatest display of prolonged dominance this league has seen.  And despite finishing 34.5 games ahead of his first round opponent, he went 0-2 in the playoffs and didn't even cash.  It may not be fair, but god damn it it’s exciting.  As you would expect, Ben’s experience is not typical.  In the 14 years of Yahoo! documented league history…….

The #1 seed (TJ) has gone on to win the Chalice six times (Adrian ‘03, Colin ‘04, James ‘07, Kurt ‘12, Ben ‘13, Richie '14). They've lost in the finals twice (Adrian ‘06, Ben ‘10). The eight finals appearances are the most from any playoff seed. With the most championships coming from this position, you could argue that the #1 seed has had the most success. But an argument could be made for…

The #2 seed (RICHIE), which has finished in at least third place (i.e. money back) in seven of the last eight seasons.  While it can't match the finals success of the #1 seed (#2 seeds are 2-4 in championship games), it holds a dominating 6-2 record in the consolation game (winners are Richie ‘04, Jarrett ‘06, Colin ‘09, Alex ‘10, TJ ‘11, James ‘13).  Overall, more than 80% of the teams that earned a bye have finished in the money, which is a figure that declines sharply once you hit…

The #3 seed (JARRETT), where 50% have cashed. #3 seeds are the only seed aside from the #1 seed with a winning record in the title game, winning three of their four appearances (Ben ‘06, Drew ’09, Jarrett ‘16). The numbers diminish again when you sink to…

The #4 seed (COLIN), who has finished in the money 43% of the time.  This seed represents the most non-bye championship appearances (five); two winners (Alex ‘05, Kurt ‘11) and three losers (Richie ‘08, James ‘09, Kurt '15).  #4 seeds have not fared well in the consolation game capturing just one win (Colin '14) against four losses (Richie ‘03, TJ ‘10, Alex ’13, James ‘16).  Add it all up and the #4 seed is 3-7 in money games. The seed you must avoid at all costs is…………..

The #5 seed (ALEX), who’s 7% cash rate makes it by far and away the least lucrative playoff seed in history.  With zero trips to the finals and one third place finish (Kurt ‘07), there’s no doubt this is the cement-shoe seed.  #5 seeds are 4-10 in the first round of the playoffs and 1-8 in their last nine, meaning more than two-thirds of their seasons end in the dreaded, pointless double consolation game. It’s amazing how much better it’s been to be…………..

The #6 seed (TIM), who’s one championship (James ‘10) and 36% cash rate is far more attractive.  Sure, they've taken their lumps; they've come in last more than any other seed (57%), but with three second-place finishes (Alex ‘04, Ben ‘11, Ben '14) and a cash back third (Colin '03), it’s not all that bad.  Plus, you’re automatically the Cinderella story that everyone roots for.  Sot you got that goin’ for you, which is nice.  But of course if you can’t read, there’s always this:

	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	$$$	Share
1 Seed	43%	21%	7%	29%	NA	NA	71%	33%
2 Seed	14%	29%	50%	7%	NA	NA	93%	22%
3 Seed	21%	7%	21%	14%	29%	7%	50%	17%
4 Seed	14%	21%	7%	29%	21%	7%	43%	16%
5 Seed	0%	0%	7%	21%	43%	29%	7%	1%
6 Seed	7%	21%	7%	0%	7%	57%	36%	11%

Playoff Personalities

And now it’s time to meet your 2017 Playoff Managers!

#1 TJ Geers:  TJ locks down the #1 seed for the second time in history (2009, 3^rd place finish) and secures his third bye (2009, 2011).  He makes the playoffs for the 12^th time since 2003 – a Diamond Dynasty best – but his playoff resume leaves much to be desired.  After winning the inaugural title in 2002, TJ has only made one return trip to the finals where he lost to Kurt in 2013.  His 9-16 playoff record is the lowest winning percentage in league history (min. 3 games played) but Geers has high hopes for a 2017 Chalice run coming off of the greatest regular season in his long-tenured DD history.

#2 Richie Travers:  Richie grabs the #2 seed for the second time in history (2004, 3^rd place finish) and secures his third bye (2004, 2014).  He makes the playoffs for the 10^th time and fourth consecutive season, but has had mixed success in recent years.  After winning the Chalice in 2014 he’s suffered first round exits in both 2015 and 2016.  With a career playoff record of 11-10 and his third-best regular season team at hand (10-1 in his last 11 weeks), Richie is well-positioned for a run at his second Chalice (jinxing powers, ACTIVATE!)

#3 Jarrett Staff:  The man who no longer needs an introduction.  After missing the playoffs four years straight from 2010-2013, Jarrett has finished the regular season as a top 3 team in four consecutive years.  Furthermore, he is undefeated in the last two years in five playoffs match ups and thus, is the two-time defending champion.  It feels like we should just throw any pre-2014 numbers out of the window as they’re so drastically different:

2003-2013: .482 regular season winning percentage, 3-6 post-season record, 0 titles

2014-2017:  .552 regular season winning percentage, 5-2 post-season record, 2 titles

#4 Colin Lancey:  This proud black man nabs the fourth seed for the second time in league history (2014, 3^rd place finish).  This is Colin’s seventh consecutive playoff appearance, tied for longest in league history (TJ, 2007-2013) and by far the longest active playoff streak.  But despite the consistency, Colin has little to show for it.  Since his only championship in 2004 he has just one finals appearance, a loss to Jarrett last year.  He’s 1-3 in his last four quarter-final match ups but is fresh off a dominant 7-3 victory over first round opponent Alex last week.

#5 Alex Gentilli:  Alex punches hit ticket to the playoffs for the second consecutive season.  He’ll try to improve on last year’s showing, when, as a #2 seed, finished in third place.  Alex hasn’t won a title since 2005 but he’s been to the finals more than any other manager in this year’s playoffs (last appearance 2012).  Alex is not playing his best fantasy baseball (0-2-1 last three weeks) and will have to turn things around in a hurry if he wants to break his 11 year dry spell.

#6 Tim McGrail:  Tim battled back from an abysmal start to the season to finish in sixth place (more on that in the full season write up next month…or in the off-season….whenever.)  It’s his second playoff appearance in three full DD seasons.  He’s looking for his first playoff victory and will have to earn it against the aforementioned juggernaut Jarrett.  Tim lost to Jarrett 7-2 last week.