Tuesday, March 15, 2016

2016 Schedule

As explained in the commissioner note, the schedule needs to be re-done.  Here is how I'm doing it:



Step 1:  Copy last year's schedule

Step 2:  Replace teams with numbers 1-10 (ex. Richie=1, Ben=2, etc)

Step 3:  Pull names out of a hat and attach them to the numbers.  The results:

  1=Alex
  2=Colin
  3=Kurt
  4=Richie
  5=Tim
  6=Jarrett
  7=TJ
  8=Adrian
  9=James
10=Ben

Friday, March 11, 2016

2016 Story Lines

Adrian’s franchise enters 2016 in a complete tailspin.  Of the 132 teams in the 14 year history of this league, his 2015 effort stands alone as the worst by any measure.  On the whole, he missed the playoffs for the fourth consecutive year and sixth of the last seven, both records.  He did well to revamp his keeper options but they are still average (by pre-season rank), and he comes into Sunday with a below-average draft board.  2016 looks like another uphill battle for the once great franchise.

Alex saw his streak of three consecutive playoff appearances snapped last season but orchestrated possibly the finest tank job we’ve seen.  He enters 2016 with the strongest draft board, the third best core keepers, and a top prospect last pick flex.  He’s the odds on favorite to win the regular season and could challenge Ben’s 144-win record set in 2005 - Alex’s only championship season.  This season, it’s finals or bust.

Ben missed the playoffs in 2016 for the first time in six seasons, falling one season shy of tying the record shared by Kurt and TJ.  His commanding lead in career victories was cut down significantly and now leads TJ by 7 wins for most all time.  He returns this season with average projected keepers but a draft board second to only Alex thanks to his activity on the trade block last season.  He has to like his chances entering the DD’s 15th year.

Colin had a solid 2015 season, capturing his first #1 seed since 2004.  Unfortunately for Colin, the similarities stopped there.  He lost both of his matches en route to a fourth place finish and continues to search for championship #2.  The playoff appearance was his fifth straight and seventh in the last eight seasons, both impressive marks.  And judging by the peripherals he’s pointed towards another playoff run.  He enters 2016 with the strongest Core Keepers and a potential star as a flex (Schwarber, last pick).  He somehow also bolstered his draft board, posting the third highest average draft pick.  Colin has the pieces in place to challenge for a bye in 2016.

James stormed back at the end of last season but it was too little too late.  He ended up missing the playoffs despite posting a .500 record, the fifth-best record for a non-playoff team in league history.  James’s first eight seasons yielded five playoff births, a 9-3 post-season record, and two championships; his last five seasons, just two playoff births and a 1-3 post-season record.  He enters 2016 with the worst ranked Core Keepers and a below average draft board, but he has the most attractive flex (Carlos Correa) and the best possible price (last pick).  James projects to be in the 5-6-7-8 clusterfuck for the playoff push.

Jarrett used 2014’s momentum to catapult him to a 2015 title, the first in franchise history.  Since week 9, 2014 - a 36 week stretch - Jarrett has a .618 winning percentage.  That would stand as the third best winning percentage ever, and he’s done it for nearly two full seasons.  Jarrett was the only team not to make a trade so his draft board is perfectly average.  His keepers, on the other hand, are anything but.  Kershaw and Goldschmidt headline the league’s second best set of Core Keepers, and some guy named Jose Fernandez as his flex which pushes his average keeper rank to #1.  The new bully on the block is the only person to earn byes in back to back seasons and shoots for his third straight in 2016.

Kurt returned to the playoffs last year after a one year absence and made serious noise, making it all the way to the finals.  He enters 2016 with a strong set of Core Keepers and a solid flex option.  
His draft board is on the weaker side, but so was Jarrett’s last season and we all saw how that turned out.  The only franchise to never tank, Kurt will very likely be in the mix in 2016.

Richie made it to the playoffs in back to back years for the first time since 03-04, but lost on a tiebreaker in the first round.  His keepers are slightly below average and he is dead last with a #174 average draft pick (which is actually better than the #181 average draft pick he had last year).  All in all, Richie will need good health and bit of luck to make franchise history with his third consecutive playoff appearance.

TJ returned to the post-season in 2015 after snapping a seven-season streak and came away with third place.  His 119 wins was tied for his third best regular season record ever and he now stands just 7 wins behind Ben for most wins in DD history.  Entering with average keepers but the second worst draft board, TJ will need to draft well to field a playoff-worthy team in 2016.

Tim set the record for most wins by an expansion manager in their first year, and became just the second expansion manager to lead a team to the playoffs in his first year at the helm.  But the kid gloves come off this time around.  With below average keepers and a slightly above average draft board (and no bonus first round picks “just because”), Tim needs to take all he’s learned in his rookie season to avoid a sophomore slump.  He’ll need a strong showing on draft day.

Monday, March 7, 2016

Opening Post 2016

Welcome back!  I will not be writing to a schedule this year, just randomly popping in.  As always, I encourage others to jump in as it will make the league more enjoyable.  And as always, I foresee little enthusiasm for this request.

Here's how 2016 is shaping up:

Name

Adrian
Alex
Ben
Colin
James
Jarrett
Kurt
Richie
Tim
TJ

Adrian edges out Alex in the name department with a "tie-breaker" of sorts, as we had to actually go to the second letter to determine who was first place.  Nice job Adrian.  Conversely, TJ sits in the basement thanks to his nickname.  If he just would have dropped the Jr, he could have at least tied for last.  Questionable managerial decisions there.

Core 4 projections (based on Yahoo Preseason rank)

Core 4
Colin11
Jarrett12
Alex18
Kurt24
TJ25
Ben26
Richie27
Adrian32
Tim34
James53
Colin edges out Jarrett in average Core 4 preseason ranks, highlighted by the usual suspects.  Jarrett and Alex join him in the top tier, and everyone except James basically falls into tier #2.  

Core 4 projections with Flex (based on Yahoo Preseason rank)

Core 4w Flx
Jarrett1216
Colin1118
Kurt2430
TJ2532
Tim3434
Alex1835
Richie2741
James5344
Ben2647
Adrian3251

When adding the flex picks, Jarrett's average preseason rank jumps to #1 thanks to Jose Fernandez.  Colin stays close behind with Cubs sensation Kyle Schwarber, and the rest of the league is pretty evenly spread out from there.  Interestingly enough, James is the only team to experience an increase in average preseason rank with the addition of his flex keeper, an effect of having both the lowest average core keeper rank and flexing stud-to-be Carlos Correa, who has the highest preseason rank for all flex-eligible players.  

Flex pick

Core 4w FlxFlx Pk
TJ253288
Jarrett121690
Tim3434100
Kurt2430129
Richie2741255
Colin1118LAST
Alex1835LAST
Ben2647LAST
Adrian3251LAST
James5344LAST

Half of the league maxed out the Flex keeper option with 5 managers sacrificing a last round pick, and Richie was nearly there.  TJ's flex was the most expensive, giving up his 9th round pick (88th overall) for Carlos Carrasco.  He only owed his 10th round pick but no longer owns it.  

Average Draft Pick

Core 4w FlxFlx PkAvg Pk
Alex1835LAST114
Ben2647LAST121
Colin1118LAST145
Tim3434100150
Jarrett121690151
Adrian3251LAST159
James5344LAST162
Kurt2430129163
TJ253288168
Richie2741255174

And finally, Alex leads the pack with draft picks.  Ben is the only one who comes close, with two picks in the first round and picks #96, #99, #102, and #104.  On the other end of the spectrum, Richie will not make a pick until 34 picks are off the board - the longest stretch of anyone this year.

But it's not all doom and gloom - far from it.  Here's what last year looked like:

1. Ben - 16 points
2. Colin - 15 points
3. Tim - 14 points
4. James - 11 points
4. Kurt - 11 points
4. TJ - 11 points
7, Jarrett - 10 points
8. Alex - 8 points
9. Richie - 7 points
10. Adrian - 5 points
Statistically, Ben looked to have the most promising mix of average draft position and keepers but missed the playoffs entirely.  Last year's champion projected to miss the playoffs.  And Adrian....well we all knew he was going to be bad (sorry Adrian).

This season, Alex has a top-tier core four, a last round flex, and the best draft board.  I think we can all agree that anything less than breaking Ben's 144-win record is a failure for Alex.  Oh by the way, remember last year when we all thought TJ was a lock to make the playoffs?  

TJ
41 Jacoby Elsbury
42Yu Darwish 

Stay frosty big guy.