Monday, December 29, 2014

You're Fired!!!

My latest genius idea is to take a look at some historical data and see when (and how many times) an owner might have fired all of us.  Then, you’ll be re-hired as a “new” manager, and the process repeats.  Again, all stats as of 2003 because Yahoo is annoying and leaves out our first year - apologies to TJ and James, who came in first and second respectively.  I told James to just think of 2002 as a pre-NFL merger situation, where the Packers won the “World Championship” but it’s not quite a Superbowl.  Anyway, let’s take a look.

Adrian:  Takes home the title in the inaugural year and guarantees some job security.  He follows up his championship season with an early exit playoff loss in ‘04.  After missing the ‘05 playoffs, the fans begin to grumble.  They are quickly rewarded as Adrian makes the ‘06 finals, but ultimately falls short.  Another playoff appearance in ‘07 keeps fans happy, and in ‘08 Adrian strikes again as league champion.  Five playoff appearances and two league titles in six years has fans glowing, he can do no wrong.  Adrian has a hangover year in ‘09 and finishes in eighth place, but the fans shrug it off.  He follows that season up with an historically bad ‘10 campaign, setting then-records for least wins, most losses, and worst winning percentage.  Fans worry that after two titles he’s lost the fire, some are calling for him to be out.  A bounce back year in ‘11 sees him enter the playoffs as a #3 seed, but an 0-2 run yields a disappointing 6th place result.  Frustration is growing now, as a fan base accustomed to championships hasn’t come remotely close in three years.  Adrian is unable to field a competitive team in ‘12 and comes in last place.  Adrian has a solid 9 year run at the helm but the owner cuts ties, citing a “declining level of success.”  Adrian 2.0 is hired and narrowly misses the playoffs in back to back years (‘13-’14).  Fans say “at least we’re not in the basement” but an impatient owner won’t wait much longer for his first playoff win since 2008.

Times fired: Once

Alex: Falls short in the ‘03 finals to Adrian, but the owner loves the potential he sees.  Another second place finish in ‘04 has fans disappointed but buzzing.  A third straight finals appearance is the charm, as Alex takes the title in ‘05; the owner wouldn’t fire him even if he beat his kid with a switch.  A fourth consecutive playoff appearance in ‘06 keeps fans fat and happy - they have a perennial contender.  Finally, he takes a step back in ‘07 with a ninth place finish.  Elitist Alex fans still celebrate their early franchise success and don’t even notice.  An eighth place finish the following year begins the fan groaning.  Another ninth place team in ‘09 lowers his 3-year winning percentage to .441, and many fans start to call for his firing.  The owner folds under the pressure and has to part ways with Alex.  Alex 2.0 is hired and in ‘10 immediately takes the team to the semi-finals before bowing out.  A controversial tiebreaker scenario in ‘11 (fans refer to it as the Blunder Down Under for reasons unknown) causes him to miss the playoffs, lighting a fire under the fans and the franchise like never before.  Riding the emotion of ‘11, Alex 2.0 makes his first trip to the finals but loses to Kurt.  Emotion-driven fans fresh off the previous years’ controversy make erroneous claims of corruption in losing to the commissioner of the league.  Alex 2.0 leads his team to the playoffs in ‘13 and ‘14 but do not make the finals; still, he remains the face of a jaded but passionate fanbase with strong backing of his owner.

Times fired: Once

Ben: Relocation in 2002 to Xaverian and a last-place finish in ‘03 marks the start of a bad relationship with fans.  Another missed postseason in ‘04 equals a swift boot out the door for Ben, who goes down as one of the worst managers in history.  Ben 2.0 is hired and immediately changes the culture, finishing in first place in the ‘05 regular season and setting seemly untouchable records in wins and winning percentage.  An unexpected 0-2 postseason draws criticism, but Ben 2.0 is a marked improvement over his predecessor.  The franchise finds paydirt in ‘06 with their first league championship.  News also trickles out than Ben 1.0 broke his back while bungee jumping in Singapore; the fanbase is elated.  Ben 2.0 returns to the finals in ‘07 but loses to long-time rival James.  The owner thinks he’s found a keeper in Ben 2.0.   The franchise narrowly misses the playoffs in ‘08 but there’s plenty of equity built up by then - Ben 2.0 survives the offseason without a fight.  A short-lived playoff appearance in ‘09 gives fans something to chew on, but they haven’t seen a playoff victory in two years.  Ben 2.0 hears the criticism and responds in a big way, reaching the finals in back to back years but losing both times.  The fans are back on his side and the owner is delighted.  A fourth straight playoff berth in ‘12 keeps the good times rolling, but it’s another year without a championship.  They don’t have to wait long, however, as Ben 2.0 brings home the franchises’ second championship in eight years and the media begins speculating if he’s the greatest manager of all time. He has a chance to cement that legacy in ‘14 but falls short of a 6-seed cinderella story.  A dominant six-year run run (one title, three finals appearances, and six consecutive playoff appearances) locks him in as manager for many years to come.

Times fired: Once

Colin: A third-place finish in ‘03 gives Colin room for error.  He uses none of it, capturing the ‘04 championship.  The owner is thrilled as revenue piles in.  Fans celebrate in the streets and begin to expect elite performance.  The championship hangover hits in ‘05 with a seventh-place finish, followed by an ugly ninth place finish in ‘06.  Fans grow restless, as they came into this world with championship aspirations and don’t like the change.  Owners give a playoff ultimatum that Colin cannot meet in ‘07 and after three years without a playoff appearance, Colin is fired.  Colin 2.0 shows great promise in his first regular season, finishing as the #3 seed in ‘08 but losing in the second round.  In ‘09, Colin 2.0 earns the franchises’ first bye since the title season, but finishes in a disappointing third place.  Fans are angry at missing the finals for five straight years, but they are still haunted by the memory of Colin 1.0’s latter years and are thankful for meaningful September games.  The unrest amongst the fanbase is amplified in ‘10 as Colin 2.0 misses the playoffs, finishing in eighth.  The owner begins to feel pressure, but holds onto Colin 2.0 for another season in hopes of a turnaround.  The franchise does make it to the playoffs in ‘11, but a first round loss leaves a bad taste.  With only one meaningful playoff victory in four seasons under Colin 2.0, he is officially on the hot seat.  2012 looks eerily similar to ‘11, as a fifth place regular season ends in a consolation game loss.  Despite making the playoffs in four of his five seasons at the helm, the owner fires Colin 2.0, citing “playoff impotence.” In ‘13, Colin 3.0 guides the franchise to it’s third consecutive fifth place regular season, followed by an early playoff exit.  The fans groan and remark “they’ve seen this movie before.”  The owner begins to fear his firing of Colin 1.0 put a jinx on the franchise and travels to New Orleans to consult spiritual counseling.  The ‘14 season is nearly a carbon copy of the previous three seasons and ends with a respectable but ultimately unfulfilling third place finish.  Fans wonder where the killer instinct went with this franchise.

Times fired: Twice

Drew: As an expansion team, Drew is afforded some wiggle room in his performance.  Drew wiggles, twists, shakes, jives, and convulses into a firing after 2.5 years of total incompetence, coming in last in ‘06 and ‘07, and sitting in last place by the ‘08 All-Star break.  Drew is the first manager to be fired mid-season.  When reached for comment, the owner just stared at the ground and said “wow” over and over.  Drew 2.0 is hired, finishes Drew 1.0’s trainwreck of a 2008, and vows wholesale changes to the franchise.  Fans are delighted with a #3 seed and their first ever playoff birth, but they are launched over the moon when Drew 2.0 improbably captures the franchise's’ first championship in ‘09 in an historical worst-to-first turnaround.  The celebration lasts through the ‘10 season and it shows, as the team finishes in ninth.  Drew 2.0 again vows wholesale changes and revamps the team, finishing in first place in the ‘11 regular season.  Despite the high hopes, Drew 2.0 fails to win a playoff game and hits the bottle.  A ninth place finish in ‘12 with an alcoholic Drew 2.0 at the helm has the owner worried.  Fans become motion sick with the ups and downs of the franchise, and cry that their hearts are being played with like yo-yos.  A last place finish in ‘13 with franchise lows in wins and winning percentages with an inattentive manager turns many fans into a spiteful mob.  Drew 2.0’s personal problems spiral out of control after a domestic abuse arrest and subsequent divorce.  The owner fears if he fires Drew 2.0 he might harm himself, so he lets him manage for another season.  The ‘14 season is the worst in league history by any measure.  During the ‘14 off-season, Drew 2.0 is reported missing.  After a 6 week man-hunt and no body found, Drew is declared legally dead and the Drew legacy cannot continue.  The league turns to a bright-eyed, bushy-tailed Tim McGrail to take Drew’s place.

Times fired: Once
Times declared dead: Once

James:  Fans are not happy with the merger and harken back to the good old days when Yahoo! didn’t track league stats.  James begrudgingly enters the Chalice era to mixed results; a successful ‘03 regular season but a first round playoff loss.  James narrowly misses the playoffs in ‘04 but time is still on his side.  The owner’s patience pays off, as James leads his team to their first finals appearance in ‘05.  Another narrow playoff miss in ‘06 leaves fans frustrated but intrigued by the manager’s poise under pressure.  James uses the fan support to capture the #1 seed in the ‘07 playoffs, and rides the momentum to the franchise’s first championship.  4 million line the streets of Fensview Drive for the parade.  The trendy championship hangover hits hard with a ninth place finish, but nobody cares.  The ‘09 season is another strong showing but he falls just short in the post-season, losing the title to an upstart Drew 2.0.  With strong backing of his owner and fanbase, James enters the 2010 playoffs as the #6 seed and finishes off the cinderella story with his second championship.  The media praises James for his impeccable 9-3 postseason record and two championships.  The owner couldn’t be happier as revenue is at an all-time high.  The now-seemingly-unavoidable championship hangover rears it’s ugly head once again with a last place showing in ‘11, but the fans are still basking in the cinderella glow from ‘10.  James, apparently still celebrating, misses the playoffs again in ‘12.  The owner furrows his brow but understands that a post-season berth is all his manager needs to work his magic.  James returns to the playoffs in ‘13 but finishes in third place despite the bye week.  The longest tenured manager makes the playoffs again in ‘14 but suffers an early exit.  James still sits well with the owner and the fans.

Times fired: None

Jarrett: A narrow playoff miss in ‘03 keeps fans interested in the franchise, but ‘04’s eleventh place finish puts attendance at a league low.  The owner is forced to fire Jarrett and cites “sucking” as the culprit.  Jarrett 2.0 is brought on with hardly better results, and the franchise seems to have a black cloud over it.  Hearing the criticisms, Jarrett springs to action and leads the franchise to it’s first playoff appearance in 2006.  It’s a disappointing first round exit, but the third place regular season finish keeps the franchise afloat financially.  Three straight playoff appearances from 07-09 give hope, but ultimately prove fruitless.  Despite the lack of revenue, the owner believes it’s only a matter of time until a finals appearance and signs Jarrett to a 3-year extension.  With the money, Jarrett buys a boat and spends most of his time sailing the Atlantic.  His affinity for the open seas costs the franchise dearly, missing the playoffs in ‘10 and ‘11.  Two years into his extension Jarrett is fired for poor performance and Jarrett 2.0 is brought on to captain the ship.  Jarrett 2.0 cannot unite the clubhouse, and back to back eighth place finishes drives the franchise into bankruptcy.  Enraged at his playoff misfortune, the owner fires Jarrett 2.0.  The owner comes to terms with Jarrett 3.0 for the ‘14 season who leads the team to franchise-best marks in wins, losses, and winning percentage.  A playoff run is cut down too early, but for the first time in five years there is real promise in the franchise.

Times fired: twice

Kurt:  Kurt leads off his Diamond Dynasty tenure with back to back mediocre seasons, making the playoffs but failing to finish in the top 3.  The owner and fans are happy to be playing meaningful fantasy baseball into September, but hope to see some improvements.  They get just that in ‘05, as Kurt steers the franchise to it’s first third place finish.  Another mediocre playoff exit in ‘06 leaves fans wondering if Kurt is good enough to take the team to the promised land.  Kurt keeps his owner content with back to back third place finishes in ‘07-’08.  The fans remain unfulfilled but enjoy looking down on the league, quick to point out they’ve made it to the playoffs every season.  The league rolls it’s eyes and doesn’t take them seriously as they’ve never played for a title.  The cutting criticisms throw Kurt off his game and cause him to miss the playoffs for the first time in ‘09, and the league sarcastically mocks the fan base for “making the playoffs every season.”  Kurt makes it back to the playoffs in 2010 but falls to another early exit, prompting a meeting with the owner who is concerned with the lack of finals appearances.  Kurt manipulates the conversation and convinces the owner to let him manage for one more year, a decision that pays off ten fold; Kurt becomes the league’s first ever back-to-back champion.  The fans rejoice and the owner cannot be happier with the revenue numbers.  Fans don’t mind the early playoff exit in 2013; they are just happy that they can return to their position of looking down on the rest of the league.  Kurt narrowly misses the ‘14 playoffs but he is in no immediate danger of losing his job.

Times fired: None

Richie:  A fourth place regular and postseason finish in ‘03 is a promising start, and a money-back third place in ‘04 leaves fans and the owner happy.  But a last place finish in ‘05 negates much of that good will.  Richie manages to limp into the playoffs in ‘06 but loses both games, putting him directly on the hot seat.  After a disappointing eighth place finish in ‘07 and zero playoff wins in three years, the owner fires Richie, citing “unfulfilled promise.”  Richie 2.0 is brought on and pays immediate dividends, leading the franchise to it’s first ever finals appearance in ‘08.  The franchise is re-energized despite the loss, but it doesn’t last for long.  An unexpected last-place finish in ‘09 draws criticism from the media and fans begin to wonder which season is the outlier for the new manager.  Richie 2.0 manages to come back strong with a third place regular season, but has an unproductive playoffs.  A dismal ninth place showing in ‘11 leads to his near-firing, but Richie 2.0 is afforded some leeway based on his ability to stock the following year’s draft board with extra picks.  With extra picks in hand, Richie 2.0 makes the playoffs in ‘12 and finishes in third, securing the franchises’ first relevant post-season victories in five seasons.  Fans hope this is finally the jumping off point for the franchise but those hopes die quickly after a franchise-worst finish in ‘13.  The owner sees a promising pattern from the ‘11-’12 seasons as Richie 2.0 has built up draft picks for the ‘14 season, but the anger among the championship-less fan base is too intense to fight and Richie 2.0 is fired.  Loaded with picks entering ‘14, Richie 3.0 takes the league by storm and captures the regular-season and post-season titles.  A tsunami of relief rips through the fanbase; 9 months later, hospitals report record numbers for babies delivered.

Times fired: Twice

TJ:  Fresh off his ‘02 “Championship of the Americas” TJ protests the first year of the Chalice era and fails to make the playoffs.  The fans and owners approve of TJ’s actions.  TJ makes the playoffs in ‘04 and ‘05 but has to settle for fifth place each season.  After missing the playoffs completely in ‘06, the fans begin to get restless and start to expect an improvement ASAP.  TJ leads the franchise to a playoff berth in ‘07 but suffers another disappointing early exit.  Fans call for his firing, but the owner gives TJ one more opportunity for improvement.  TJ makes the playoffs in ‘08 but for the fourth time in five years, loses his first round match.  The fans grow tired of the playoff mediocrity and the owner decides to part ways with TJ, saying, “5th place is basically the worst place.”  In his first season, TJ 2.0 leads the franchise to it’s first regular season championship and bye, but the same post-season mediocrity hangs like a curse as they lose both playoff matches.  2010 yields similar results as TJ 2.0 loses both the semi-final and consolation matches.  Despite making the playoffs in six of the previous seven seasons, the franchise has not finished better than fourth in the Chalice era and the owner’s frustration mounts.  There is slight improvement in ‘11 as TJ 2.0 nabs the franchise’s first top-3 finish, but ‘12 brings yet another early playoff exit.  The owner has seen enough and fears he is just hiring a string of Marvin Lewis’s’s’s’.  TJ 3.0 is brought on and makes the finals in his first season.  Just when it seems things are finally turning for the franchise, they lose their cornerstone SP  and decide to tank the ‘14 season, nearly bankrupting the entire league in the process.  Stocked with picks for ‘15, the owner expects excellence from TJ 3.0.

Times fired: twice

Sunday, December 28, 2014

2015 Draft Board

There's been a lot of trades this year - probably the most ever.  The picks are all over the place.  This is what I'm using to conduct the 2015 draft and track any other off-season trades that go down.  The "Trade" section underneath the draft board tracks every draft pick that was traded - I didn't include the players in the trades because they don't matter for these purposes.

Exciting new article coming out tomorrow!  Stay tuned.

-The Commissioner

Tuesday, December 23, 2014

A Christmas Story: Mission Timpossible


Last Christmas, Drew had first and second round picks. The very next draft, he gave them away. This year, to save us from stress, we gave them to someone special.



As I handed the commissioner reigns to Richie this off-season, I unofficially signed back up to write articles about stupid stuff I used to write articles about. Richie the red nosed reindeer is now guiding our collective sleigh into 2015 with a new reindeer on board, Tim, who replaces Drew who spent as much time in the Diamond Dynasty basement as we all collectively spent in his basement in high school.



Now that Tim is in, it is pretty clear what we all hope he achieves: Have fun, pay attention, don't finish last and trade away everything then leave the league. Fairly simple goals, this is not Mission Timpossible.



As for on-field performance, that is a different story. Over the years we have welcomed many a fellow 2006 WHS graduate to the league, and all but one of them (Jarrett) has been shamed out of the league. Here is how they fared in their first year:



2003: Chuck and Jarrett got the most prestigious invite in the history of Thurston Middle School. Jarrett narrowly missed the playoffs while Chuck, led by Bo Hart's .277 average and 4 home runs, finished 9th. Ironically, 9th was the place he finished in as well as the grade he currently looks for romantic partners. Records as follows:



Jarrett: 105-102-13 (.507)

Chuck: 88-116-16 (.436)



2004: Expansion worked once, has to work again, right?! Pfree Peed away a free $20 while Jason drafted Pedro and Nomar 1 and 2. Paul French's epically terrible season will forever be remembered by the Paul French Award.



Jason: 91-113-16 (.450)

Paul: 76-131-13 (.375)



2005: Exit Paul, Jason and Chuck (minutes before the draft). Enter: Kyle. I don't think he did anything. A remarkably un-remarkable tenure in the Diamond Dynasty ended with the following:



Kyle: 103-107-10 (.491)



2006: Exit Kyle. To this day, I'm not sure if he knows he's out of the league and I'm not sure if he remembers ever being in the league. Enter everyone's favorite Drew. As is well documented in this blog, Drew has been mostly terrible. It did not take long for him to establish this trend, spending and ending his first year in last place.



Drew: 84-121-15 (.416)



So how do these rank?



Jarrett: 105-102-13 (.507)

Kyle: 103-107-10 (.491)

Jason: 91-113-16 (.450)

Chuck: 88-116-16 (.436)

Drew: 84-121-15 (.416)

Paul: 76-131-13 (.375)



That's how.



Good job by us, keeping the best ever expansion member in the league for this long. Bad on us for keeping the second worst expansion member for as long as we did. This league is all about fun, but with fun comes mistakes and with mistakes comes hilarious stories about trade rape and mustaches.



As you can see from the above numbers, Tim does not have a big task ahead of him to become not-the-worst-expansion-manager-ever. Likely, his goal is to join Jarrett as a winning first year manager, but if he doesn't he will still likely be better than everyone else.



Good luck to Tim this year and a Merry Christmas to all of you!