Playoff Probabilities

Congratulations!  You made it to the playoffs.  It was a long hard road filled with adversity and struggle, but you drafted and managed your way into a chance at the Chalice.  As we all know, the Head to Head matchup style can be cruel and unforgiving.  In 2005, Ben put on the greatest display of managing in league history.  His 144 wins and .666 winning percentage still stand as the greatest display of prolonged dominance this league has seen.  And despite finishing 34.5 games ahead of his first round opponent, he went 0-2 in the playoffs and didn't even cash.  It may not be fair, but god damnit it’s exciting.  As you would expect, Ben’s experience is not typical.  In the 11 years of Yahoo! documented league history…….

The #1 seed has gone on to win the Chalice five times (Adrian ‘03, Colin ‘04, James ‘07, Kurt ‘12, Ben ‘13), while no other seed has done it more than twice.  And with only two losses (Adrian ‘06, Ben ‘10), the #1 seed has by far the best record in the title game.  With the most championships, you could argue that the #1 seed has been the most successful seed.  An argument could be made for…….

The #2 seed, but with only one championship (Adrian ‘08), it’s easy to discount them.  If you’re in it for the money, however, this is where you want to be.  With a disappointing four losses in championship games (Alex ‘03, James ‘05, Ben ‘07, Alex ‘12) but a dominating 6-0 record in the consolation game (Richie ‘04, Jarrett ‘06, Colin ‘09, Alex ‘10, TJ ‘11, James ‘13), the #2 seed has cashed in every single season.  Overall, 73% of the teams that earned a bye have finished in the money, which is a figure that declines sharply once you hit………..

The #3 seed, where less than half (45%) have cashed.  Finishing in every position at least once, but never more than three times, the #3 seed is the most lucrative non-bye seed.  We've seen two champions come out of this starting gate (Ben ‘06, Drew ‘09), which is tied for second-most. The numbers are similar for…………….

The #4 seed, who has gotten paid 36% of the time.  This seed represents the most non-bye championship appearances (four); two winners (Alex ‘05, Kurt ‘11) and two losers (Richie ‘08, James ‘09).  But it’s been title-game-or-bust for #4 seeds, with no wins and three losses (Richie ‘03, TJ ‘10, Alex ‘13) in the consolation game.  The seed you must avoid at all costs is…………..

The #5 seed, who’s 9% cash rate makes it by far and away the least lucrative playoff seed in history.  With zero trips to the finals and one third place finish (Kurt ‘07), there’s no doubt this is the cement-shoe seed.  #5 seeds are 4-7 in the first round of the playoffs, meaning more than half of their seasons (64%) end in the dreaded, pointless double consolation game.  It’s amazing how much better it’s been to be…………..

The #6 seed, who’s one championship (James ‘10) and 36% cash rate is far more attractive.  Sure, they've taken their lumps; they've come in last more than any other seed has done anything (55%), but with two second-place finishes (Alex ‘04, Ben ‘11) and a cash back third (Colin '03), it’s not all that bad.  Plus, you’re automatically the Cinderella story that everyone roots for.  Sot you got that goin’ for you, which is nice.  But of course if you can’t read, there’s always this:

	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	$$$
1 Seed	45%	18%	9%	27%	NA	NA	64%
2 Seed	9%	36%	55%	0%	NA	NA	100%
3 Seed	18%	9%	18%	18%	27%	9%	45%
4 Seed	18%	18%	0%	27%	27%	9%	36%
5 Seed	0%	0%	9%	27%	36%	27%	9%
6 Seed	9%	18%	9%	0%	9%	55%	36%