Playoff Probabilities

Congratulations!  You made it to the playoffs.  It was a long hard road filled with adversity and struggle, but you drafted and managed your way into a chance at the Chalice.  As we all know, the Head to Head matchup style can be cruel and unforgiving.  In 2005, Ben put on the greatest display of managing in league history.  His 144 wins and .666 winning percentage still stand as the greatest display of prolonged dominance this league has seen.  And despite finishing 34.5 games ahead of his first round opponent, he went 0-2 in the playoffs and didn't even cash.  It may not be fair, but god damnit it’s exciting.  As you would expect, Ben’s experience is not typical.  In the 11 years of Yahoo! documented league history…….

The #1 seed has gone on to win the Chalice five times (Adrian ‘03, Colin ‘04, James ‘07, Kurt ‘12, Ben ‘13), while no other seed has done it more than twice.  And with only two losses (Adrian ‘06, Ben ‘10), the #1 seed has by far the best record in the title game.  With the most championships, you could argue that the #1 seed has been the most successful seed.  An argument could be made for…….

The #2 seed, but with only one championship (Adrian ‘08), it’s easy to discount them.  If you’re in it for the money, however, this is where you want to be.  With a disappointing four losses in championship games (Alex ‘03, James ‘05, Ben ‘07, Alex ‘12) but a dominating 6-0 record in the consolation game (Richie ‘04, Jarrett ‘06, Colin ‘09, Alex ‘10, TJ ‘11, James ‘13), the #2 seed has cashed in every single season.  Overall, 73% of the teams that earned a bye have finished in the money, which is a figure that declines sharply once you hit………..

The #3 seed, where less than half (45%) have cashed.  Finishing in every position at least once, but never more than three times, the #3 seed is the most lucrative non-bye seed.  We've seen two champions come out of this starting gate (Ben ‘06, Drew ‘09), which is tied for second-most. The numbers are similar for…………….

The #4 seed, who has gotten paid 36% of the time.  This seed represents the most non-bye championship appearances (four); two winners (Alex ‘05, Kurt ‘11) and two losers (Richie ‘08, James ‘09).  But it’s been title-game-or-bust for #4 seeds, with no wins and three losses (Richie ‘03, TJ ‘10, Alex ‘13) in the consolation game.  The seed you must avoid at all costs is…………..

The #5 seed, who’s 9% cash rate makes it by far and away the least lucrative playoff seed in history.  With zero trips to the finals and one third place finish (Kurt ‘07), there’s no doubt this is the cement-shoe seed.  #5 seeds are 4-7 in the first round of the playoffs, meaning more than half of their seasons (64%) end in the dreaded, pointless double consolation game.  It’s amazing how much better it’s been to be…………..

The #6 seed, who’s one championship (James ‘10) and 36% cash rate is far more attractive.  Sure, they've taken their lumps; they've come in last more than any other seed has done anything (55%), but with two second-place finishes (Alex ‘04, Ben ‘11) and a cash back third (Colin '03), it’s not all that bad.  Plus, you’re automatically the Cinderella story that everyone roots for.  Sot you got that goin’ for you, which is nice.  But of course if you can’t read, there’s always this:

	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	$$$
1 Seed	45%	18%	9%	27%	NA	NA	64%
2 Seed	9%	36%	55%	0%	NA	NA	100%
3 Seed	18%	9%	18%	18%	27%	9%	45%
4 Seed	18%	18%	0%	27%	27%	9%	36%
5 Seed	0%	0%	9%	27%	36%	27%	9%
6 Seed	9%	18%	9%	0%	9%	55%	36%

TWTS - Week 22!

*SPECIAL EDITION*

Diamond Dynasty:  The month week that was…

WEEK 22

News

We made it!  The 2014 post-season is finally upon us.  I think some of you may have checked out/were watching football like a good God Damn American, but going into Sunday Night Baseball the playoff seeding was still very much in the air (more on that later).  For those of you that made it, please stop trying so I can win.  For those of you that didn’t, try your best to sabotage the other teams in the playoffs so that I can win.  We’ve never had these six managers make the playoffs in the same year, and we have a boatload of storylines to follow:

- Ben could become the second manager ever to win back-to-back championships (Kurt 2011, 2012)  

- We have probably the most dangerous #5 and #6 seeds ever.  James has a 71% post-season winning percentage (best all-time) and Ben has the most finals appearances (five).  If either win, they would become the first three-time Diamond Dynasty champion.

- Alex’s 2005 championship represents the most recent championship season among the top four seeds (Colin won in 2004).  The top four seeds have only made two appearances in the championship game in the last eight years.

- Richie and Jarrett captured the byes after combining for two byes in the previous 11 seasons.

- Jarrett has never played in the championship game

- Jarrett and Richie have never won a championship

Standings Analysis

As I mentioned, the seeding was very much up in the air by Sunday night.  Richie and Jarrett shared identical records heading into the final week.  Travers scraped by with a 5-4 victory over Drew and finished 1.5 games ahead of Jarrett.  Staaf needed a quiet night from Miguel Cabrera and a big night from Buster Posey, but got the opposite and lost for the first time since May (more on THAT in a moment).  The tight match-up between Alex and Ben heavily affected the seedings on both ends.  If Gentilli won runs, RBI, and SB on Sunday night, he could have jumped up to 2nd.  If Ben won, he could have taken 5th.  The managers ended up tying RBI and SB, so Alex stayed at 3rd and Ben at 6th, setting up a great rematch of the 4-4 tie between the two in week 22.  Colin has been locked into the four-spot since July and will draw James in the first round.

Shutout Watch

No shutouts in week 22.  Congratulations to James, who’s 10-0 shutout in week 10 over Drew was the only winner this year.  While it never would have happened if we had a competent manager, this was a great idea and a lot of fun.  I’m looking forward to it next year.

Battle for the Belt

No way did that happen!  No fucking way! Colin, you beast!  You did it!  You conquered the juggernaut that was ripping through the league!  Truly amazing.  As much as I liked the shutout watch, the Battle for the Belt was the coolest thing we did this year.  Congratulations to Jarrett and Colin, the two winners of the Battle of the Belt contest.  Thanks to Jarrett’s historic streak, belt holders went 15-7 in belt defenses.

Final Roto Power Rankings

Offense

1. Alex (40)

2. Richie (38)

3. Colin (37)

4. Jarrett (35)

5.  Ben (29)

6. James (23)

7. TJ (21)

8. Kurt (20)

9. Drew (17)

9. Adrian (16)

Defense

1. Richie (45)

2. Alex (41)

3. Colin (33)

4. Ben (32)

5. Jarrett (31)

6. TJ (29)

7. Adrian (25)

8. James (22)

9. Drew (11)

9. Kurt (11)

Overall

1. Richie (83)

2. Alex (81)

3. Colin (70)

4. Jarrett (65)

5. Ben (61)

6. TJ (50)

7. James (45)

8. Adrian (41)

9. Kurt (31)

10. Drew (28)

2014 Ultimate Lineup (as of 9/8)

C – B. Posey (Jarrett)

1B –  V. Martinez (Alex)

2B – J. Altuve (Colin)

3B –  M. Cabrera (Colin)

SS – D. Gordon (James)

CI – J. Abreu (Richie)

MI – A. Rendon (Jarrett)

OF – M. Trout (Colin)

OF – G. Stanton (Alex)

OF – M. Brantley (Ben)

OF – N. Cruz (TJ)

UTIL – J. Bautista (TJ)

SP – C. Kershaw (Jarrett)

SP – F. Hernandez (Alex)

SP – J. Cueto (Adrian)

SP – C. Sale (Colin)

SP – C. Kluber (Richie)

RP –D. Betances (Jarrett)

RP – T. Ross (Adrian)

P – A. Wainwright (Richie)

P – J. Lester (Richie)

P – M. Bumgarner (Jarrett)

TMTW - August

Diamond Dynasty:  The month that was…

AUGUST

News

Nothing, really.  Just a slow month overall.

After years (literally) of inactivity, Drew was finally called out league-wide on his managerial absence.  What followed was a shit-storm of confusion, anger, frustration, finger pointing, and name calling, the likes of which this league has never seen.  When the dust settled, Drew survived (for now) and some playoff-bound teams got stronger.  Drew’s days may be numbered as a manager (he violated the terms of his ultimatum in less than a week), but he has left an indelible mark on the 2014 season.  And as we make the final turn into the stretch run, we can once again enjoy the Diamond Dynasty’s finest tradition - the 13th Annual 6-Seed Shuffle.  

From the History Could Be Made department:

- We will have a first-time regular season champion - Neither Alex, Richie, or Jarrett have accomplished the feat.

- We are on pace to witness 3 managers win 120+ games in one season, a DD first.

- If TJ loses this week against Adrian, this would be just the third instance of two managers finishing with winning percentages under .400 (2007, 2013).

- According to my hastily gathered intel, Jarrett’s incredible 16 consecutive weeks without a loss is the longest such streak in Diamond Dynasty history.  The complete list:

Consecutive Wins

10 - Jarrett (2014)

9 - Richie (2014)

8 - Heath Bell (2011)

8 - Onion Man (2008)

6 - Six teams tied

Consecutive Wins/Ties

16 - Jarrett (2014)

13 - James (2013)

13 - Kurt (2012)

12 - Adrian (2011)

10 - Kurt (2013)

Consecutive Losses/Ties

13 - Drew (2013)

11 - Adrian (2011)

10 - Paul (2004)

9 - Paul (2004...yes, two different streaks)

8 - Four teams tied

Consecutive Losses

8 - Drew (2013)

7 - Colin (2005)

7 - Caroline Brink (2011)

6 - Three teams tied

Also, this happened!

Standings Analysis

Holy jabroni, we got a barn burner!  Jarrett’s historic streak has launched him all the way to first place, tied with Richie.  Alex, despite beating Richie 6-4 in week 21, slipped back one spot to third place and is three games back.  If Alex finishes in third, he will no doubt look to the 7-2 loss he took in week 19 against Staaf as one of the reasons.  Colin seems comfortable with the 4th spot (he’s been there in 14 of 21 weeks thus far), and then it gets a little hairy.  Ben and James are battling for a very important 5-seed and the right to play Colin in the first round.  The 6-seed will have to play Jarrett, Alex, or Richie, all of whom should finish with top-10 winning percentages in the history of the Diamond Dynasty.  Adrian and Kurt are lurking, but might not have enough time to sneak in the playoffs.  And Drew has locked up the first pick of the 2015 draft….for TJ.  A true stroke of genius from Geers, who has pulled off the improbable double-tank job.

Shutout Watch

Week 17 saw three teams score one category.  Richie was the closest to the shutout, taking TJ to town in everything except wins (5-3). Kurt took Ben for a ride, but lost WHIP by .11 and tied saves.  Adrian, making one hell of a playoff push, took Alex to the cliff but lost SB by 6 and tied saves.

Alex came back in a big way in week 18.  Going into Sunday night, he and his opponent, James, had the Sunday Night Baseball starters.  Alex, disregarding my advice to hedge his bet and guarantee him what amounted to a nice steak dinner (albeit at Chili’s) rolled the dice but could not get the win he needed.  They tied wins 3-3.  Honorable mention goes to Adrian’s 8-2 win over Drew, where he fell 4 RBI’s and 21 batting average points short of a pay day.

Following suit, James roared back from the previous week’s defeat with a 9-0 victory over Drew.  Neither team could muster a save.  James, how bad does that one hurt?  

There wasn’t a shutout scare in week 20.

Jarrett had a 6-day shutout over he-who-must-not-be-named, but Drew put up 7 RBI’s on Sunday to block the shutout and finish the match 9-1.

Battle for the Belt

This section of TMTW is officially a waste of time.  11 consecutive title belt defences.  He cannot be stopped, he will not be stopped.  For he is Jarrett, conqueror of fantasy opponents and keeper of the WWE Belt.  Challengers need not apply.

Who’s Hot

Jarrett got the nod last month, so let’s give it to Adrian!  After week 15, Adrian was 15 games behind James for the final playoff spot.  In the six weeks following, he’s won 5 out of 6 weeks for a 38-21-1 mark.  Macdonald’s last chance is against the 9th placeman, and with Ben’s struggles, anything could happen.

Who’s Not

I dragged Ben through the mud last month (he still qualifies this month) but let’s go to Drew.  It’s kind of pointless to spend any time on him but he is really making some history.  He’s 5-34-1 in his last 4 contests.  I have to go back to confirm but that has to be one of the worst marks ever.  And this handsome writer is not at all nervous with a 3 game lead for a bye and seeing him on the schedule to close the regular season.  Nope, not nervous.  Everything will be fine.  I’m fine, everything is ok.

2 Team Spotlight

This week - The Leftovers

Colin - Steady Eddie

Colin is Hunter Pence-ing his career so hard.  He’s been the 5-seed each of the last three years, and will most likely jump up one spot to the 4-seed this year.  Never too high, never too low, Colin has spent his entire season between 3rd (week 4) and 6th (weeks 2 and 13), with the majority of that time in 4th place.  He’s on pace for his best season since 2009 - a bye-week-earning but ultimately disappointing season (3rd place finish in the playoffs).  It’s Colin’s time in the spotlight.

Oh, look at that.  Mike Trout is fucking awesome.  He’s not quite living up to his O-Rank - he’s slipped all the way to 2nd ranked - but he’s on pace to set career marks in home runs and RBI’s while tacking on 100 runs scored and swiping at least 15 bases.  The wonderkid leads an offense that ranks above average overall with a 52-49-4 record.  The other bash brother, Miguel Cabrera, is having a “down” season, slashing 82/17/91/.299, but is still ranked in the top 20.  Jose Altuve has been quite a find; his .336 average leads all of baseball, and his 49 stolen bases ranks third.  Beyond the elite guys, Colin has had some solid bounce back seasons from Albert Pujols and Adam LaRoche (24 and 19 HR respectively).  With Yadier Molina on the DL and Wil Myers fresh off of it, Colin’s had some injury issues to contend with.  But if either of those guys can come back and contribute in the next couple of weeks, Colin would become very dangerous.  And I guess it didn’t hurt to trade for Ryan Braun, either.

The pitching doesn’t appear to be as strong, but the team stats say otherwise.  His 32 roto points are good for 3rd place.  He’s used 43 of his 63 moves thus far which is (you guessed it) in the middle of the pack.  Chris Sale is beasting and Mike Fiers has been a great #2 over the past month.  The rest of the numbers are coming from (I assume) spot starting as most of the ranks I’m looking at are...undesirable.  The relievers are solid and have given him an 11-5-5 record in saves.  If Colin falls short this year, it will be from the lack of depth at SP.  But that offense could peak at just the right time.  Colin will be very difficult out in these 2014 playoffs.

Jarrett - Witnessing History

After week 5, it looked like another typical season for Jarrett.  Coming off of four consecutive playoff misses, he was dead in the water, stuck in last place with a 16-32-2 record.  But then, something happened.  Something magical.  Something chemically enhanced.  Something...I don’t know.  But we may be looking at the greatest assembly of fantasy baseballers this league has seen.  Clayton Kershaw made his first start on May 6th - the second day of week 6.  And since that start, Jarrett remains unbeaten.  MAY SIXTH!  Can you comprehend that?  Because I can’t!  He’s 13-0-3 in his last 16 contests, which as I mentioned before is the longest unbeaten streak in DD history.  He’s 107-48-5 (.684) since his last loss, which, over a full season, would set the record for highest winning percentage and most wins.  And if you take out his back to back ties in weeks 6 and 7, he’s 13-0-1 in his last 14 matches with a 97-38-5 (.711) record.  Alright

that was a lot of numbers - lets look at some players.

Jarrett’s roster is littered with top-100 players.  Almost his entire offense are all top hundo.  And that’s not including his best player, Paul Goldschmidt, who is lost for the year after breaking his hand on a HBP.  He’s been all over free agency, adding guys like Todd Frazier (#23 on the season) and Chris Carter (#3 in the last month).  Jarrett leads the league in runs and stolen bases, and is second in average.  It’s just a really solid, deep offense with no holes to attack.  The offense makes this team go, and the above-average pitching Staaf just adds salt to the wounds.

Aside from the greatest pitcher since Pedro (and that’s debatable), Jarrett can throw out Madison Bumgarner and Julio Teheran every 5th day to complete one of the best top 3’s in the league.  You don’t fall too far before you hit the next level of starters, as Alex Cobb and Jered Weaver make for solid middle-rotation guys.  The ‘pen is deep, boasting two elite closers in Jansen and Robertson, and backing them up with newly minted closer Joaquin Benoit who has been quite good.  The rest are solid bullpen arms with mega k/9 and mini ratios.  Having lived through 18-1, anything is possible.  But this is the team you do not want to see.

Roto Power Rankings

Offense

1. Richie (40)

2. Alex (38)

3. Colin (37)

4. Jarrett (36)

5. Ben (29)

6. James (22)

7. TJ (21)

8. Adrian (18)

9. Drew (17)

9. Kurt (17)

Defense

1. Richie (44)

2. Alex (41)

3. Colin (32)

4. TJ (31)

5. Jarrett (30)

6. Adrian (28)

7. Ben (26)

8. James (20)

9. Drew (13)

10. Kurt (10)

Overall

1. Richie (84)

2. Alex (79)

3. Colin (69)

4. Jarrett (66)

5. Ben (55)

6. TJ (55)

7. Adrian (46)

8. James (42)

9. Drew (30)

10. Kurt (27)

August’s All-Stars (as of Monday September 1)

C – Buster Posey (Jarrett)

1B –  C. Carter (Jarrett)

2B – D. Ackley (Kurt)

3B –  A. Rendon (Jarrett)

SS – D. Santana (Kurt)

CI – V. Martinez (Jarrett)

MI – J. Harrison (Jarrett)

OF – A. Gordon (Richie)

OF – J. Upton (TJ)

OF – J. Ellsbury (Ben)

OF – H. Pence (Richie)

UTIL – C. Gomez (Richie)

SP – M. Bumgarner (Jarrett)

SP – M. Shoemaker (TJ)

SP – M. Fiers (Colin)

SP – C. Tillman (TJ)

SP – D. Smyly (TJ)

RP –C. Carrasco (Ben)

RP – A. Wood (James)

P – H. Rendon (Kurt)

P – K. Jansen (Jarrett)

P – F. Salas (FA)