Weekly Match Ups - Week 23

Week 23's installment of the DDWPIPOTCFFBE – PE (Diamond Dynasty Weekly Preview In Pursuit Of The Chalice For Fantasy Baseball Excellence – PLAYOFF EDITION)

Last week – Ben and James hold on to the byes, TJ leapfrogs Alex for third (and changes the playoff picture in the process). Jarrett fizzles down the stretch and finishes on the outside looking in, Adrian's late season push falls short, and Drew out-sucks Richie for the 2013 Paul French Award.

After 22 weeks of fierce competition, the Diamond Dynasty finally has it's 6 playoff contestants in 2013. I first want to thank Sleepy's, Dell, Not You Average Joe's, Post-It, and Diamond for sponsoring the regular season match ups this year, and we look forward to continuing a mutually beneficial business relationship in the years ahead. I would also like to extend a congratulatory salute to Ben and James, who secured the bye weeks after a season-long showing of dominance. So without further adieu, the 2013 first round playoff match ups brought to you by:

                                      Destiny's Auto Sales – Fulfill Your Destiny!

TJ (3^rd) vs Kurt (6^th) – The DL All-Stars vs the 6 win kid. To be honest, both teams are kind of limping into the playoffs. TJ was no worse than third place for essentially the entire year so he's proven that he's no fluke. But he's heading into the playoffs with Albert Pujols, Jose Bautista, and Matt Harvey on the DL. At this point in his career, Pujols is replacement level – the absence of the other two will be felt. TJ was 9-1-2 in the first 12 weeks but just 5-5 in the final 10 weeks with a 1-1 record against first round opponent Kurt. Despite his .486 winning percentage, The Commissioner had an 11-8-3 weekly record. He's only 2-6 in the last 8 weeks but the 10-week unbeaten streak should not be forgotten. His ability to squeak by, coupled with TJ's walking wounded, should make for a very close game. TJ beat Kurt 7-3 last week, but it easily could have been a 6-4 win for Kurt.

Season series: TJ 2-1 (17-12)

OFFENSE:

TJ finished in the top three in Runs, HR, and RBI but struggled in SB (10^th) and BA (9^th). The subtraction of Jose Bautista and Albert Pujols would presumably have the greatest effect in the three aforementioned strengths. Brandon Moss and Josh Donaldson have been top 40 players over the past month but it's hard to say how long they'll be able to keep that pace up. Jay Bruce is approaching 30 homers and seems to be heating up, if only a little. Kurt finished the year first in Runs and third in Average, but bottom third in RBI and SB. He is also facing some injury issues with Carlos Gonzalez unable to swing a bat and Bryce Harper at less than 100%. Recently, Shin Soo-Choo and Ian Desmond have been the leaders of the club and they have the talent to continue their level of play.

Edge – Kurt

PITCHING:

This is where it gets interesting. One man's strength is another man's weakness in most categories here. Kurt led the league in Wins and K's, but was last or second to last in Saves, ERA, and WHIP. TJ was top three in the latter three categories, but just middle of the pack in Wins and K's. TJ is already up 1-0 automatically as Kurt carries no closers, and he only needs to win 4 more categories as he possesses the tie breaker via home field advantage. A rotation without Matt Harvey is much less imposing (and those once strong ratios start to creep up as well). Even still, TJ has a guaranteed win and a big edge in two other categories.

Edge – TJ

Prediction: Really, really close one. But thanks to the home field advantage, TJ advances on a 4-4 tie.

Alex (4^th) vs Colin (5^th) – These two gentlemen were my pre-season first and second place picks, so I'm not surprised that they're battling for the 2013 crown. Alex is searching for his first win in three weeks (0-1-2), though he did have a four week winning streak before that. Conversely, Colin has played fairly well recently (3-2) following a 4 week losing streak. Gentilli is coming into the playoffs remarkably healthy, with no players on the DL. Colin cannot say the same, as Joe Mauer and Jason Heyward will not be able to go this week. But as we all know, Colin will sink or swim with the production of Miguel Cabrera and Mike Trout. Alex has the deeper team, but Colin's stars are a threat to outshine the competition.

P.S. - While I appreciate the humor, the team names “Please Cabrera” and “Cabrera Please” make this write-up extremely confusing. I am not smart enough to remember who is who.

Season series: Alex 2-0 (14-5)

OFFENSE:

Alex is a top four team in Runs, HR, RBI, and SB. He also has the odds-on favorite to win the NL MVP in Andrew McCutchen, who is one home run away from his third consecutive 20-20 season. It's tough to find even one under-performer in Alex's lineup as most of his players are ranked in the top 140. Colin, on the other hand, is more top-heavy than Pam Anderson. It's Cabrera and Trout, and then....Pablo Sandoval? Wil Myers? Now just a few weeks ago we saw Crout (I think I like Trabrera better) go off for 22/11/32/5/.400 in a two week span. If Colin can get that production, he has a chance. But Cabrera is hobbled and the Tigers are taking it easy with him down the stretch. At this time, Colin's top-heavy fantasy bosom consists of a DD and a B cup.

Edge – Alex

PITCHING:

Reviewing the team totals for the season, these guys are neck and neck right down the line. And with Colin picking up a few closers mid-way through the season, the Saves gap is wiped out for this week. You could argue Alex has slightly better elite talent, but Colin definitely has the deeper staff overall. Alex will be depending on Zack Greinke to keep the mojo working (top 10 in the last 30 days) to lead the staff. Beyond that he'll be looking to Francisco Liriano and Matt Moore to pick up the slack for an injured Felix Hernandez. Yahoo! says Felix will throw this weekend before the Mariners determine when he next start might be, which takes him out of Alex's match against Colin. Finally, Gentilli boasts a solid closer squad with Addison Reed, Edward Mujica, and Mark Melancon, who has apparently stolen the closer role from All-Star Jason Grilli since Grilli was forced to the DL. Colin has a great two-headed monster in Yu Darvish and Chris Sale, and Cole Hamels has bounced back in a huge way after a slow start (top 6 in the last 30 days). He fills in the rest of the rotation with solid arms and his closers (Koji Uehara, Glen Perkins, and Steve Cishek) are all dependable. A really interesting sub-plot of this match up will be the trade between these two managers on July 28, where Jean Segura and Kyle Lohse went to Alex for Chris Sale and Glen Perkins. In my opinion, it just fortified the strengths of each team. Colin's depth should win out here.

Edge – Colin

Prediction – The loss of Felix Hernandez handcuff's Alex's ability to compete on the rubber, but with a hobbled Miguel Cabrera, Colin can't keep up offensively. Alex takes this one, 6-4.

Nice Knowin' Ya

And now, a salute to the managers eliminated from their quest for the 2013 Diamond Dynasty Chalice for Fantasy Baseball Excellence:

Drew Donovan (10^th) – Injuries to keepers and high draft picks is excusable. Bad adds and drops are expected. But what Drew did this year is the stuff that ruins fantasy leagues. Donovan failed to check (let alone update) his roster for DL's and under-performers. From May 9^th to July 3^rd – a stretch spanning and affecting 10 weeks – he failed to make any moves as he plunged deeper and deeper into last place. And when he finally did update his roster, he fucking won! Considering two teams made the playoffs with sub-.500 records, his 3-5-1 record in the last 9 weeks makes you think that had he not checked out in May he might have had a shot at the playoffs. Hope you enjoy the first pick next year, because you damn well don't deserve it.

Weeks 1-7: 0-6-1

Weeks 8-15: 2-5-1

Weeks 16-22: 1-5-1

Streaks:

    Wins: 2

    Unbeaten: 2

    Losses: 8

    Win-less: 13

Richie Travers (9^th) – Richie has to be honest. Richie is dumbfounded that his team didn't challenge for a bye. Richie felt so good about his team and it just...ah....he doesn't know. Looking back on it, there's probably a reason why the phrase “career year” exists, and there's definitely a reason why you're not supposed to expect those guys to do it back to back. Richie's season effectively ended 8 picks into the 2013 draft, taking B.J. Upton in the first round. His offensive keepers were injured most of the year (Hanley Ramirez and Aramis Ramirez) or performed below expectations (Prince Fielder). His draft was riddled with mediocre picks like Ben Zobrist and Adam LaRoche as well as bad picks like Roy Halladay and Danny Espinosa. He hung in there as best he could but he fell out of contention by early August. Richie picked up three extra draft picks for next year but lost Felix Hernandez in the process, which makes his keeper situation a little cloudy.

Weeks 1-7: 0-5-2

Weeks 8-15: 2-5-1

Weeks 16-22: 1-3-3

Streaks:

    Wins: 2

    Unbeaten: 2

    Losses: 4

    Win-less: 8

Jarrett Staaf (8^th) – Jarrett pushed harder than anyone this year to make the playoffs, trying to strike a deal with a number of managers to bolster his roster for the final weeks. He unfortunately dug himself too deep a hole in the middle of the season to get out of. The bottom line is 2013 Jarrett was nothing but a big bully. Check this out:

Record vs first-fourth place: 1-9-1

Record vs fifth-tenth place: 6-3-2

Record vs playoff teams: 3-11-2

Record vs non-playoff teams: 4-1-1

Now I would expect most of the teams to have good records against the non-playoff teams, but for a team to finish outside the playoffs despite dominating the bottom of the league is peculiar. Jarrett made a decent push toward the end of the year but just couldn't string wins together as he followed a win with a loss from weeks 13-21. He had a chance in the final week of the year as he played Colin straight up, but a 7-3 loss was the final nail in the coffin of Jarrett's 2013 season.

Weeks 1-7: 3-2-2

Weeks 8-15: 1-6-1

Weeks 16-22: 3-4

Streaks:

    Wins: 3

    Unbeaten: 4

    Losses: 4

    Win-less: 7

Adrian Macdonald (7^th) – If memory serves me correctly (and I'm not too drunk yet), Adrian sat between 6^th and 8^th pretty much all year. He was never a big threat to anyone, but he was always within a few games of a playoff spot if he wasn't already in. A late-season 5 week win-less streak turned out to be a back breaker despite closing the year on a 3 week winning streak. He finished the year with only one pitcher in the top 100 (Cliff Lee, 30). A healthy Matt Kemp would have probably made up the 2.5 games that he needed to get to the playoffs, but Kemp was essentially useless all year.

Weeks 1-7: 3-2-2

Weeks 8-15: 2-5-1

Weeks 16-22: 3-3-1

Streaks:

    Wins: 3

    Unbeaten: 3

    Losses: 3

    Win-less: 5

Weekly Matchups - Week 22

Week 22's installment of the DDWPIPOTCFFBE (Diamond Dynasty Weekly Preview In Pursuit Of The Chalice For Fantasy Baseball Excellence)

Last week –Ben solidifies his hold on the regular season title, Adrian wins again to put himself on the brink of the playoffs,and Richie and Drew fight for first pick. Alex and TJ officially qualify for the playoffs, and heading into the last week of the regular season we have 4 teams (separated by just 5 games) battle for the final two playoff spots in a fantastic race to the finish.

Sleepy's® "Snoozer of the Week" – Richie (10^th) vs Ben (1^st)

It can't get more lopsided than this as last battles first in a mostly meaningless match-up. Barring a 10-0 loss, Ben will grab the regular season title and one of two coveted bye weeks. As everyone knows, anything can happen in head to head, so the less exposure in the playoffs the better. Ben was only one of two top-5 teams to win last week which gave him some breathing room on the bye. This does have some implications for the 2014 draft as Richie has a half game lead over Drew for last god damn place. After winning most of the week against Alex, Travers fell back to a 5-5 tie – not the worst outcome for a no lottery league.

(season series Ben 11-5)

Dell's® "Dull Duel" –James (2^nd) vs Drew (9^th)

Slightly less lopsided, James takes on Drew in another probable bloodbath. James has less of a hold on the second bye, with just a 3.5 game lead over Alex and a 5 game lead over TJ. A 6-4 win should guarantee an off week next week for Maimonis. Drew, like Richie, has a good shot at first pick next year as he is totally over matched in this one. He managed a 6-3 win over Kurt, hurting his chances for that first pick next year but keeping the integrity of the 2013 season in check (though he did much to ruin that integrity for basically the entire first half of the year). It's another match up that effects two races at once.

(season series James 14-4)

The Average Match of the Week presented by Not Your Average Joe's – Alex (3^rd) vs Adrian (7^th)

Shifting the focus completely to the 2013 finale, the last three match ups this week will go a long way in shaping the playoff picture. The first look is at Alex and Adrian, two teams that have come on very strong in the past month and are fighting for spots that seemed an impossibility just a month ago. Most impressive (for me) is Adrian's rise to the playoff discussion after dropping out of the top 6 over two months ago. He's 16-4 in the last fortnight and now sits just two games out of the playoffs! I all but wrote him off a few weeks ago after a 9-1 loss to Colin in week 19, but he has come storming back. He'll have a tough go of it this week though, as his opponent is proving to be one of the best teams in the league. Alex hasn't lost in 7 weeks, posting a 4-0-3 record over that span (albeit with a Kurt-like dominance). In his last lap through the league he's 5-1-3. The good play puts him 3.5 games behind James for the second bye but with Adrian playing so well (and James playing Drew) it's hard to imagine Alex being able to leapfrog James for second place. Adrian only needs Kurt or Colin to slip up to open the door for an improbable backdoor playoff spot, though that season series record against Alex does not bode well for the Marathon Man.

(season series Alex 16-2)

The Post-It® "Noteworthy Match-up" – Kurt (5^th) vs TJ (4^th)

TJ can't finish worse than 4^th, and might slide up to 3^rd with a good week. Either way, he's probably the most boring team this week (sorry bro). Kurt's season has been one of the strangest in recent memory. After getting burned by some seemingly bad luck early on, he ripped off a 10-week unbeaten streak and looked like one of the better teams in the league. Since then, he's just 2-5 with losses to Richie AND Drew (last week). Looking back on the aforementioned streak, he never posted more than 6 wins – in fact, he's only won 7 or more once all season. He still remains a threat with his consistent ability to take 6 categories, but his recent struggles have put his playoff spot in jeopardy.

(season series TJ 10-9)

Diamond Strike Anywhere Matches® "Match-Up of the Week" – Colin (6^th) vs Jarrett (8^th)

I didn't expect Adrian to push his way into the discussion and he might steal the spotlight here but this is the marquee match up of the week, and probably the season. With everything on the line in week 22, Colin and Jarrett square off in a win-or-go-home (sort of ) battle. Jarrett has gone win-loss-win-loss for 8 weeks in a row now...but he's due for a win after a loss last week! And after two huge wins over Richie and Adrian, Colin has dropped two in a row but retained the 6^th spot. Jarrett starts this match up 2 games back and is the only non-playoff team that controls his own destiny (what more could you ask for, Jarrett!) And look at the previous two meetings between these two; a 9-0 win by Jarrett in week 4 and an 8-2 win by Colin in week 13. Apparently it's go big or go home with these two, which is exactly how it should be. Another great finish to another solid Diamond Dynasty regular season awaits! Playoff breakdown next week!

(season series Jarrett 11-8)