Wednesday, June 19, 2013

Mid-Season Review!!!

Drew Donovan: 32-70-8 (.327), 32.5/21 GB
Offense: 16-34-5 (.336)
Defense: 16-36-3 (.318)
Keeper Delta: -1943 (average: -388.6)
    CC Sabbathia: -128 (51-179)
    Michael Bourne:  -225 (80-305)
    Justin Verlander: -89 (13-102)
    David Price: -895 (25-920)
    Will Middlebrooks (last round): -606 (133-739) (DROPPED)
What's gone right: Nothing.  
What's gone wrong: Everything.  All 5 of his keepers have been enormous disappointments and three of his top 5 draft picks (Billy Butler, Yovani Gallardo, Ian Kennedy) are ranked at least 200 spots lower than their projected rankings.  Drew was definitely unlucky with all of those guys, and most of us would have made the same moves if we had Drew's roster from last year.  What pisses me off is his total lack of competition in the league this year.  Despite being in last place the entire year and not winning a single week along the way he has made the least amount of moves (8).  He is averaging less than one move a week and his last move was May 9, which is probably the last time he bothered to check the league.  Asdrubal Cabrera was placed on the DL on June 5 and expects to miss a month or more - Drew is starting him at shortshop and most likely will continue to because he doesn't give a shit.  He has real-life active players on his DL and real-life DL players in his active line-up.  It's bull shit.


Richie Travers: 38-65-7 (.377), 27/16.5 GB
Offense: 12-40-3 (.245)
Defense: 26-25-4 (.509)
Keeper Delta: -1701 (average: -340.2)
    Prince Fielder: -27 (12-39)
    Hanley Ramirez: -947 (106-1053)
    Stephen Strasburg: -65 (14-79)
    Felix Hernandez: +12 (26-14) (TRADED)
    Aramis Ramirez (12th round): -674 (59-733)
What's gone right: Richie made a good run in the middle/late rounds of the draft, picking Mike Napoli (85th), Sergio Romo (88th), and Carlos Gomez (15th) in consecutive rounds.  The pitching staff that was supposed to hold this team back has actually been the only thing keeping this team somewhat competitive, posting a .509 winning percentage.
What's gone wrong:  Alot more than what's gone right.  The offense is the worst in the league, triggering a Felix Hernandez-David Wright trade with Alex.  Hanley and Aramis Ramirez have only played a combined 50 games.  An argument could be made that maybe keeping Chris Davis as a floating keeper for a last-round pick may have been a good decision.  First-round pick BJ Upton might have been the worst pick in the draft.  Richie has dropped his final five picks of the draft (Tommy Handon, Adam Dunn, James MacDonald, Jackie Bradley Jr, Kenly Jensen).  Stephen Strasburg is 3-6 with a 2.50 ERA thanks to the third-worst run support in Major League Baseball.  


Colin Lancey: 47-57-6 (.455), 18.5/7 GB
Offense: 21-31-3 (.409)
Defense: 26-26-3 (.500)
Keeper Delta: -1495 (average: -299)
    Miguel Cabrera: 0 (2-2)
    Jason Heyward: -758 (30-788)
    Starlin Castro: -284 (39-323)
    Cole Hamels: -450 (35-485)
    Mike Trout (last round): -3 (1-4)
What's gone right: Miguel Cabrera and Mike Trout are just about as deadly a duo that you can form, and they're backing up their reputations again this year.  Colin seems to have repeated his free agent mastery this year in picking up shortstop Jean Segura, who is currently ranked 12th and is the early favorite for the "best bang for the floating keeper buck" next year.  Colin made a fantastic decision in picking strikeout leader and Cy Young candidate Yu Darvish in the first round, and got a steal with Hyun-Jin Ryu (90th) in the late rounds.  At the halfway point, Colin owns 4 of the top 12 players in fantasy baseball.
What's gone wrong: Aside from Cabrera and Trout, the keepers have been terrible.  There is no mid-tier players on this team; everyone is either amazing or horrendus, and there are more of the latter.  Not enough firepower on offense.  He's the only person to lose to Richie this year, which is super embarrassing.


Jarrett Staaf:  54-53-3 (.505), 13/1.5 GB
Offense: 23-31-1 (.427)
Defense: 33-20-2 (.618)
Keeper Delta: -454 (average: -90.8)
    Clayton Kershaw: 0 (11-11)
    Ryan Braun: -79 (3-82)
    Josh Hamilton: -320 (24-344)
    Paul Goldschmidt: +36 (42-6)
    Yoenis Cespedes (15th Round): -91 (27-118)   
What's gone right:  De-fense!  De-fense!  Jarrett's pitching staaf is awesome.  He's 19-3 in ERA/WHIP.  He excelled in the mid to late rounds of the draft; starting in the 13th round he picked Everth Cabrera (dropped on April 10, ouch), Manny Machado (ranked 34th), Yoenis Cespedes, Milky Cabrera, Alceides Escobar, Nelson Cruz (ranked 66th), John Lackey (way outperforming his projections), and Shelby Miller (ranked 23rd).  Unfortunately the four preceeding picks were...
What's gone wrong:  John Lester (sucking), Aaron Hill (10 GP), Brett Anderson (5 starts, out until at least August), and Miguel Montero (general suckage).  If he could have hit on a couple more picks in this area he would be killing it.  But with a record over .500, there's more that's gone right than wrong.


Kurt Gottschalk: 54-50-6 (.518), 11.5 GB
Offense: 31-22-2 (.581)
Defense: 23-28-4 (.455)
Keeper Delta: -188 (average: -37.6)
    Joey Votto: -17 (7-26)
    Evan Longoria: -6 (21-27)
    Carlos Gonzalez: +7 (8-1)
    Buster Posey: -51 (29-80)
    Bryce Harper (17th round): -121 (19-140)
What's gone right:  Kurt nailed his keepers again this year, with all core four keepers ranking in the top 80 (and three in the top 27).  He had the best Keeper Delta, which is even more impressive when you consider that his keepers were all pre-ranked in the top 29.  Bryce Harper’s low rank is more reflective of his time on the DL rather than under-producing.  Kurt had a really solid draft, picking some of his better performers later on (Carlos Beltran in the 15th, Alex Cobb in the 20th).  Jordan Zimmerman was one of the better selections in the first round.  The offense leads the league in runs, home runs, and average.
What's gone wrong:  The all-starter strategy hasn’t worked to perfection with Kurt, as he’s only 5-3-3 in wins on the year.  ERA/WHIP is his biggest issue, posting a combined 7-15 record in those categories.  He ran into a bit of bad luck early on, which seems to be correcting itself.


Adrian Macdonald: 55-50-5 (.523), 11 GB
Offense: 36-17-2 (.673)
Defense: 19-33-3 (.373)
Keeper Delta: -851 (average: -170.2)
Matt Kemp: -452 (5-457)
Dustin Pedroia: -11 (20-31)
Adrian Beltre: -20 (17-37)
Johny Cueto: -31 (70-101)
Chase Headley (last round): -329 (177-446)


What’s gone right:  The offense, clearly.  Adrian has 4 of the top 22 offensive players (Dustin Pedroia, Adrian Beltre, Domonic Brown and Everth Cabrera).  He did pretty well early in the draft as 3 of his top 4 picks are meeting or exceeding expectations (Cliff Lee, Brandon Phillips, and Jonathan Papelbon).  It’s been a solid bounce-back year from last year’s chump.
What’s gone wrong:  The pitching almost entirely negates all the good the offense has done.  His team names are too cute.  Adrian might have had the worst draft this year - take a look at his picks after round 4:
Austin Jackson (39 GP)
Fernando Rodney (sucks)
Dan Haren (cut)
Ike Davis (cut - AAA)
JJ Putz (hasn’t pitched since May 7)
Shane Victorino (cut)
Matt Harrison (cut)
Erik Aybar (cut)
Jaime Garcia (cut)
Wandy Rodriguez (only decent pick)
Yasiel Puig (cut)
Chase Headley (floating keeper)


Alex Gentilli:  56-48-6 (.536), 9.5 GB
Offense: 32-21-2 (.600)
Defense:24-27-4 (.473)
Keeper Delta: -742 (average: -148.4)
Andrew McCutchen: -24 (6-30)
Giancarlo Stanton: -657 (10-667)
David Wright: -22 (23-45) (TRADED)
Chris Sale: +26 (57-31)
Anthony Rizzo (last round): -63 (64-127)
What’s gone right:  Alex is getting (or got) decent production from most of his keepers; they are mostly in the minus but it’s difficult to have two top ten guys reproduce so highly.  Nabbing David Ortiz in the 22nd round may have been the steal of the draft.
What’s gone wrong:  Despite having more pitchers rank in the top 100 (6) than hitters (3), he is a sub-.500 defense.  Alex has been bit by the injury bug worse than most, with Curtis Granderson, Giancarlo Stanton and Chase Utley missing significant time.


James Maimonis:  60-46-4 (.564), 6.5 GB
Offense: 35-19-1 (.645)
Defense: 25-27-3 (.482)
Keeper Delta: -1009 (average: -201.8)
Troy Tulowitzki: +2 (16-14)
Gio Gonzalez:-139 (58-197)
Jose Reyes: -892 (18-910)
Matt Holliday: -7 (45-52)
Adam Jones (10th round): +27 (33-6)
What’s gone right:  Adam Jones and Troy Tulowitzki is one of the better 1-2 punches in the DD.  Matt Holliday is as steady as they come.  James had an excellent draft with very few misses.  With the exception of R.A. Dickey, he hit on all his early picks and excelled in the late rounds (Clay Buchholtz in the 15th, Hisashi Iwakuma in the 18th, and Starling Marte in the 22nd).
What’s gone wrong:  Not much.  Tulowitzki has taken his annual trip to the DL, Jose Reyes has been out since April 10, and Pablo Sandoval is a little banged up.  When those guys return, James will just be that much better.


Ben O’Connor: 60-44-6 (.573), 5.5 GB
Offense: 31-23-1 (.573)
Defense: 29-21-5 (.573)
Keeper Delta: -311 (average: -62.2)
Robinson Cano: -42 (4-46)
Adrian Gonzalez: -83 (47-130)
Jacoby Ellsbury: +1 (37-36)
Matt Cain: -200 (34-234)
Edwin Encarnacion (12th round): +13 (32-19)
What’s gone right:  Excellent production from his keepers.  11-0 in the SB category.  Owns one of the best rotations in Adam Wainwright (9th), Max Scherzer (10th), and Hiroki Kuroda (75th).  Triple-crown threat Chris Davis almost wins weeks singlehandedly.  Great run in the middle rounds of the draft, picking Edwin Encarnacion (19th), Joe Nathan (69th), Chris Davis (3rd) and Greg Holland (93rd) in rounds 12-16.
What’s gone wrong:  Pretty much nothing.  He’s been mostly healthy all year and Matt Cain is coming back to life after a slow start.


TJ Geers:  65-38-7 (.623), 0 GB
Offense: 26-25-4 (.509)
Defense: 39-13-3 (.736)
Keeper Delta: -341 (average: -68.2)
Justin Upton: -39 (22-61)
Albert Pujols: -70 (9-79)
Jose Bautista: -33 (15-48)
Ian Kinsler: -187 (28-215)
Homer Bailey (last round): -12 (167-179)
What’s gone right:  I can’t believe I picked TJ to finish last in the pre-season rankings.  Literally cannot believe it.  That’s an offense that should get me kicked out of the league.  I think it’s clear to everyone that my ability to evaluate fantasy baseball players and rosters has never been stronger, which is only confirmed by my championships.
No standout all-stars on offense (highest ranked is Jay Bruce at 43rd) but lots of good players here.  6 ranked in the top 66.  The pitching is the real dominating factor though.  TJ is the only team to achieve a .700 winning percentage or better on one side of the ball, and only one of two teams to have both offense and defense over .500 (Ben is the other).  Matt Harvey is a beast.  Jason Grilli in the 20th round might have been the steal of the draft.  TJ leads the league in saves and WHIP.  I still laugh every time I read “Clay Buttholes”.
What’s gone wrong:  GTFO with that shit.  He’s in first place!

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