Hey
The worst part of the season is almost over. The grueling All Star Break - 4 days off from meaningful baseball (with the exception of one Thursday night game) - is soon to be in the rear view mirror. We have played 15 weeks and, with 6 weeks remaining, we are currently at the halfway point of the season. Thus, I bring to you the Second Half Preview!
At this juncture, the league has separated itself into very distinct tiers. We have The Elite. The Comfortable. The Sixth Place Racers. The James. Lets work backwards and see what needs to be done in each tier. I have assigned a point value to each tier.
The James Tier
James currently sits in last place. He is 15.5 games back of the last playoff spot. Reaching the playoffs isn't completely out of the question, though you will see in the next tier why reaching the playoffs is completely out of the question. James currently sits 12.5 games back of 9th place. What does his second half look like? James has 2 games against The Elite teams. 2 games against The Comfortable teams and 2 against the Sixth Place Racers. There are not a ton of opportunities for James to beat teams that would be contesting for that Sixth Place finish and that could work against James in the coming weeks. He rode a 5 week losing streak into the all star break. Is there any good news? Well, James has not been shut out in 7 weeks.
Most Important Week: Try not to get blown out by Ben in Week 16.
Home Stretch Prediction: James opens the second half facing Ben (tied 1st), TJ (3rd) and Colin (5th). If he hasn't checked out by now, he has checked out in 3 weeks.
The Sixth Place Racers Tier
What a battle we have going on for the last playoff spot. Sixth place is currently 10.5 games back of 5th. It is not unreasonable that someone from the top 5 falls out, but I don't write reasonable take articles. There are four teams fighting for one spot and they are all within 3 games of one another. Lets start with 9th place -
Tim currently sits in 9th place, tied with Drew and 3 games back. I don't know or care what the tie breaker is, though by saying that I will lose the tiebreaker at the end of the season. Whatever it is, Drew currently holds it over Tim and Kurt currently holds it over Ben. Its probably ERA. Sorry, don't make this about yourself. This is about Tim
Tim has one of the tougher roads of the Sixth Place Racers. I wish I picked a shorter name for this group. The Racers is what we're going with from here on out. Tim faces all three currently Elite teams. He also faces 5th place Colin. He could potentially gain ground with a week 16 matchup against 6th place Richie before the impending storm of four weeks against top 5 opposition. Should Tim be able to stay in contention, he gets a final week matchup with James who will likely be the most checked out manager since we had to kick Drew out.
Most Important Week: Week 16 against Richie. A big win could flip The Racers on their heads.
Home Stretch Prediction: The schedule is daunting. Tim will stay in it and a big win in the final game against James will see Tim miss the playoffs by a half game. That, my friends, is how you put the dick in predicktion.
Next up is Drew. The artist formerly known as Kid Jesus sits 0 games ahead of Tim based on the aforementioned probably ERA tiebreaker. Drew comes into the break on a two week win streak including a huge win over Tim. Maybe that's the tiebreaker. Whatever. Drew has a similar schedule to Tim's. The only differences are instead of Ben he gets Jarrett and instead of Colin he gets Adrian. That's confusing because I originally thought Adrian was Colin because Adrian took Colin's ok team name and made a worse version of it. One might say this is a more difficult schedule, as Jarrett is going for four titles in a row and has been powering up the standings. However, based on the current standings and the rankings I've made up, Drew has the easier schedule by a slim margin. Drew will also be looking to gain ground on Richie in week 18. In week 19 he gets James. However, Drew will be closing out the season with difficult matchups against Kurt and Jarrett.
Most Important Week: Week 18 against Richie its massively important for Drew to gain ground, position himself to take over 6th place against James the following week and hold on tight for the final 2 weeks.
Home Stretch Prediction: The Jarrett matchup proves more one sided than Tim vs Ben. Tim gains ground and finishes one half game ahead of Drew for 7th.
Currently sitting in 7th is Adrian, 2 games behind Richard for that last last last last last playoff spot. Ahem. Last playoff spot.
Adrian has been bad recently. In the last 11 weeks he has won 3 and lost 8. The worst part of it? Two of those three wins were against James who does not appear on his remaining schedule. Adrian needs to make up ground early in the final six weeks. His first two matchups are against Drew (who was his third of the three wins) and Richie. If he can't put himself into the 6th spot in these two weeks it will be a difficult climb. Adrian faces 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 5th to close out the season.
Most Important Week: Week 16 against Drew. If Adrian can't score meaningful wins against a resurgent Drew team (two consecutive wins entering the break) then its unlikely he can claw back against 5 of the top 6 to close the season.
Home Stretch Prediction: Well, I've already given 7th and 8th to Tim and Drew so its 6th or 9th for Adrian.
Hmmm....
In what will be The Most Annoying Thing to Happen in 2018, new life will be breathed into Adrian after no one trades for picks and all his friends are competing wholeheartedly. A newly excited Adrian finds his love for baseball again and charges back up the.... Just kidding, 9th.
The current leader of the Racers is the Richer. Better known as...
Richie, our fearless and often frustrated leader holds on to the last playoff spot entering the All Star break. In case you haven't noticed by now, Richie plays every other member of the Racers in the next three weeks. Richie enters the break on a two week win streak, beating James and Jarrett. Richie is in a good position to solidify his lead in the next three weeks, but could potentially lose hold of it should he have a lopsided loss. After his run of three weeks against his main competitors, Richie faces the First Place Twins - Ben and Kurt - before finishing the season with Colin. It will be incredibly interesting what happens in these next three weeks for Richie. Last time through the schedule, Richie went 20-10-0 against these three opponents. Richie, should he miss the playoffs, has a case for bad scheduling luck as two of the three teams he has to play three times are currently tied for first. In the four matchups he's had so far with The First Place Twins Richie has managed only one win in three of them, losing 9-1 to Kurt in week 1, 7-1 to Ben in week 2 and 9-1 to Ben in week 11. Yeah, I'd say these next three weeks are crucial.
Most Important Week: The most important week is three weeks and those three weeks begin tonight at 7pm. Due to the scheduling, the most important week for Richie is actually 3.5 weeks.
Home Stretch Prediction: The 20-10-0 against the three managers earlier in the season bodes well for the home stretch. Even with losses to close the season, Richie can move himself into The Comfortable tier. Richie grabs 6th.
The Comfortable Tier
Here we are - The Top 5. If you haven't yet been named, you probably feel pretty good about your playoff chances. While its not unreasonable that a manager closes a 10.5 game gap, it's unlikely that two teams do.
Colin is 9.5 games back of first, 10.5 games ahead of sixth and a mere half game behind 4th place Jarrett. He enters the All Star Break having alternated wins and losses for four weeks, most recently a loss to Drew. Colin begins the second half with his only remaining Elite matchup, facing 3rd place TJ. He follows that with a The James matchup then his Comfortable Companion - Jarrett. Although Colin is considered Comfortable, he will play a key role in determining who gets in the playoffs. Colin finishes the season with Tim, Adrian then Richie.
Most Important Week: Week 18 against Jarrett. This matchup could determine two things. Who, if either, can make the leap to Elite and who will hold the tiebreaker in the playoffs, should the meet in the 5-4 game.
Home Stretch Prediction: Although Mike Trout may never win a playoff game in real life, this life is a much better one for him. Colin uses his rather soft schedule to catapult himself into 4th place.
Jarrett is three things.
1. Looking to ruin the league by winning it again.
2. On a hot streak having won 7 of his last 8 matchups.
3. Probably not reading this.
Jarrett is coming into the All Star Break having lost for the first time since Week 8. On paper, Jarrett has a very difficult schedule. He plays all three Elite teams along with his Comfortable Companion. All these take place in the next four weeks. Jarrett gets to close out the season with James and Drew. Jarrett lost to Richie both times he played him. There's no more analysis to that, just pointing it out.
Most Important Week: Week 18 against Colin. While Jarrett certainly has his eyes on a bye week, the most important matchup will be an attempt to separate himself from those beneath him.
Home Stretch Prediction: Fuck it. Jarrett manages only one win against the Elite. He also ties one week. After that, James surprises him with a tie. Jarrett remains comfortable and takes the 5th place spot. From this position, he still wins the league and we start a new one without him.
The Elite Tier
The remaining teams have alternated 1st, 2nd and 3rd since Week 6. That may or may not be true... ask Richie. It sure has seemed like it, however, so we're going with it.
TJ entered the All Star Break having played The First Place Twins in consecutive weeks. He lost to Kurt two weeks ago before closing the gap on Ben with a 7-3 win. This win propelled Kurt into first, a win for which he is forever grateful. With these matchups out of the way, TJ has what should be a guaranteed playoff spot in hand. Again, with his sights set obviously higher, TJ plays both Comfortable Companions and rounds out his schedule with all four current non-playoff teams. Things are looking good for the only ever manager to win the league with no prize money. Could this change this year? Yes! It could.
Most Important Week: Week 19 vs Jarrett. TJ will be looking to stave off a hungry JareBear sandwiched between matchups with non playoff opponents.
Home Stretch Prediction: TJ has a nice little path. He sexually handled Ben last week and has several easy matchups on paper. (I forgot to add sex appeal) This is the year folks. TJ grabs the 1 seed and rides the top seed trainwagon all the way to his first Chalice that matters financially.
Ben is in second place, but for the sake of discussion he's tied for first. It's funny, these tiers seem pretty clear, but Ben had what seemed like a very safe lead on first only a few weeks ago. Ben enters the break needing a breather after losing three of his last four. Two of these losses were at the hands of the Elite. Ben has Jarrett and the four non-playoff teams in the next five weeks. Things are shaping up nicely for Ben, as he has only one loss against non-playoff teams and that came all the way back in Week 1. Ben, however, has to close the season against his First Place Twin. Kurt owns the season series 13-6-1 with two winning weeks over Ben.
Most Important Week: Week 21 against Kurt. See above. Also, First Place Twins.
Home Stretch Prediction: Ben uses his also rather soft schedule to stay afloat in the race for a bye. Beating the four non-playoff teams handily and tying Jarrett, Ben enters the final week of the season needing only a tie. A tie he gets. Kurt complains about a rained out start and 80% of the league mute the facebook chat.
Speaking of Kurt, he enters the All Star Break in scorching form with four consecutive wins. Two of those were against Ben and TJ, propelling him into first. The other two against Colin and James. Kurt was hot out of the gate then the definition of average for 8 weeks. That 8 week stretch saw all but one matchup have a winner with 5 or less wins. That outlier matchup? 6-4. If you've made it this far, you've noticed that The Elite have all recently played eachother. Thus, Kurt has a similarly manageable remaining schedule ending with Ben. However, Kurt has only three losses on the season and those losses were to Jarrett, Richie and Drew. Kurt opens the second half with Jarrett, then faces all four of The Racers before that matchup with Ben. Kurt will also have a say in who gets that last playoff spot.
Most Important Week: Week 21 against Ben. First Place Twins.
Home Stretch Prediction: Kurt has had two short great stretches on either side of one longer mediocre stretch. The last time he played this stretch of six teams he split them with 3 wins and 3 losses. Classic case of playing up to the competition. Kurt splits them again and Ben gets his revenge week 21 (with a tie) and Kurt is forced to play a first round game.
Playoff Predictions!
Round 1
Kurt 4 - 6 Richie
Colin 5 - 5 Jarrett
Round 2
TJ 7 - 3 Colin
Ben 4 - 6 Richie
Kurt 6 - 3 Jarrett (Consolation)
Finals
TJ 8 - 1 Richie
Ben 6 - 4 Colin
