2016: What We Learned

The 2016 season is in the books. Ben and Colin are now married (not to eachother) and I think Richie might be too, but I'm not sure. That brings us to 40%. Much like any strong relationship, we must learn from the past. Otherwise, history tends to repeat itself. As my season ended quite a while ago, I have used this off time to analyze the league and share what I have learned.

Speaking of history repeating itself, congratulations to Jarrett on joining the elite group of Back2Back winners. He had elite keepers, drafted well and managed a great team. With that out of the way, let us take a moment to diminish his accomplishments with some things we have learned from 2016.

Bring Back the Two Week Championship

Let me start by saying that Richie did everything right.

Identify a problem.

Clearly state our available options.

Discuss those options.

Send out an anonymous survey to vote on what to do.

As always, we voted and hoped for the best. As always, worst case scenario showed up at the most inopportune time. The imbalance of pitching tends to work itself out in the regular season, but in a one week finals it proved to be a massive advantage. Colin used all his spot starts, Jarrett saved his moves to pick up highly touted players from the waiver wire to try and lock people out of keeper options, and Jarrett still had the innings advantage on Colin, sealing a victory with one Win and one Save. Not for nothing, Jarrett's pitching staff is the better pitching staff, without question. But Colin's pitched admirably, spot starts included, and he took WHIP from this matchup. It would have been stressful for those two, but a real treat for us spectators, to have this elite matchup of superstar managers continue for one more week. If you haven't already, be sure to email Brandon Funston and tell him that we want the option for two week championships back.

Richie's Strategy Doesn't Work (as well as his last one)

In 2013 Richie's record was horrible. He was out of it at the deadline and sold everything, loading up on picks along the way. He turned those picks into a solid regular season, turned some future picks into reinforcements and that proved to be the recipe for his first Chalice. The following season he decided to get greedy. Trade the future for a mediocre present and its resulted in first round losses this season and last. The strategy is flawed and here's why:

Richie basically guarantees himself to be in the lower tier of the league come deadline time with no picks in the draft. Trading to make the playoffs, he ends up with no byes and does not have the tiebreaker with any relevant teams. Since 2003 there have been 14 champions.

8 of those 14 champions had bye weeks.

3 of those 8 won on ties.

4 of the 6 managers without bye weeks won a matchup on a tiebreaker.

1 of the other two won the league the year Jarrett was Yahoo champion but lost on a first round tiebreaker to the eventual finals loser.

I looked up these statistics to tell Richie in a blog post prior to the trade deadline, but I waited. Patience is a virtue that nets you a first, second, fourth, fifth, sixth and tenth rounder.

Keepers are Important (and Jarrett has the best ones)

Unfortunately one of those just passed away. RIP Jose. It's tremendously sad. Baseball fans the world over are left wondering what could have been. As someone who's bet the over on the Marlins win total the past two seasons, it was always a joy to watch you pitch.

The Importance of Keepers has Lengthened the Rebuilding Process

Adrian went the unconventional tank route last year. Rather than loading up on picks, he attempted to improve his keeper situation at the trade deadline. It was a bold strategy. Some may argue he should have accumulated picks then used those to get keepers before the draft. His strategy, however, proved that its important to have both picks and keepers in a rebuild. And if you want to go from first to last, you may be better off with draft picks. Depth is important. If a Giancarlo Stanton gets injured, or a Chris Archer just isn't good, its better to have more picks to build that depth. Just look at Alex, who proved that...

The Division Draft is a Success, and (although only one drafted a good team) Both Managers Drafted Divisions Correctly

The latest addition to the Diamond Dynasty's fun rules was divisions and the division draft. Jarrett won his division, but his last pick finished second. Kurt lost his division, but his last pick finished first. Before Kurt went in the tank, his division was in the exact order in which he drafted it. Only once he received the best players on a terrible team did Richie move ahead of anyone not named Kurt.

The Draft is Still Important (but not as important)

You can't win without drafting a good team. However, it all rests on keepers and your ability to keep the right ones. This leads to a larger problem. It's not about who you have. It's about who everyone else has. Unfortunately, some things are simply out of our control. I was going to post something about how we should have less keepers but I stopped here a few weeks ago and never came back so I forget my point.

2016 Incentives Recap

1. DIVISION CHAMPIONS

Congratulations to Colin and Alex who won their respective divisions.  Colin kind of led it the whole year and it was kind of boring.  Alex and James were flirting with each other all season before James folded, giving Alex the division.  They will each receive $50 for their efforts.

2. DIVISION SHOWDOWN

To remind everyone (because I'm not sure you were all aware) we voted on an incentive that pitted divisions against each.  The scores from weeks 3, 12, and 21 were counted to determine who had the best division.  The results are in and the champions are....

Chalice Peimera Division 1!

Final score 72-70-8.  Here are the table results below.  Colin was the MVP for the winning side, beating up on Kurt 22-7-1 over the three games.  Alex was the most dominant overall, posting a 23-5-3 record over Adrian.  

$20 will be awarded to each of the members of the Chalice Primera Division 1 (yes, even you Adrian).

		W		W
	Chalice Primera Division 1	72	Evan Longoria Memorial Div3 in 4	70
Week 3	Adrian	0	Alex	8
Week 12	Adrian	4	Alex	6
Week 21	Adrian	1	Alex	9
Week 3	Colin	8	Kurt	2
Week 12	Colin	6	Kurt	4
Week 21	Colin	8	Kurt	1
Week 3	Jarrett	3	Richie	7
Week 12	Jarrett	5	Richie	5
Week 21	Jarrett	3	Richie	7
Week 3	Tim	6	James	4
Week 12	Tim	5	James	5
Week 21	Tim	6	James	3
Week 3	TJ	6	Ben	3
Week 12	TJ	6	Ben	3
Week 21	TJ	5	Ben	3
	Total wins
	Adrian	5	Alex	23
	Colin	22	Kurt	7
	Jarrett	11	Richie	19
	Tim	17	James	12
	TJ	17	Ben	9

3. BATTLE FOR THE BELT SEASON FINALE:

PRIZES: $50 Mid-Season (James wins!), $75 regular season finale (TJ wins!)

TJ beat Ben 5-3 to steal the belt (and Ben's playoff spot) in the final game of the regular season.  TJ nabbed two saves and 29 strikeouts over the weekend to tie those two categories, and two stolen bases on Sunday gave him the margin of victory that he needed.  Another heart breaking loss for Ben, and we continue to reward the guy that left us high and dry on draft day.  Congratulations TJ and fuck you.

4. SHUTOUT POOL PRIZES: $5 week cumulative, pays out and resets on a 10-0 shutout

No shutouts!

NO SHUTOUTS!

If my stats are correct, that's the first time since 2009 that we haven't had a 10-0 shutout.  The $105 allocated for this incentive will be put towards the playoff payouts.

5.  CHALICE PAYOUTS

1ST - $1,005.00
2ND - $502.50
3RD - $167.50

2016 Playoff Probabilities

This is a re-post of last year's blog with updated numbers.

Congratulations!  You made it to the playoffs.  It was a long hard road filled with adversity and struggle, but you drafted and managed your way into a chance at the Chalice.  As we all know, the Head to Head matchup style can be cruel and unforgiving.  In 2005, Ben put on the greatest display of managing in league history.  His 144 wins and .666 winning percentage still stand as the greatest display of prolonged dominance this league has seen.  And despite finishing 34.5 games ahead of his first round opponent, he went 0-2 in the playoffs and didn't even cash.  It may not be fair, but god damn it it’s exciting.  As you would expect, Ben’s experience is not typical.  In the 13 years of Yahoo! documented league history…….

The #1 seed (COLIN) has gone on to win the Chalice six times (Adrian ‘03, Colin ‘04, James ‘07, Kurt ‘12, Ben ‘13, Richie '14). They've lost in the finals twice (Adrian ‘06, Ben ‘10). The eight finals appearances is the most from any playoff seed. With the most championships coming from this position, you could argue that the #1 seed has had the most sucess. But an argument could be made for…….

The #2 seed (ALEX), which is fresh off it's second championship (Adrian ‘08, Jarrett '15). While it can't match the finals success of the #1 seed (four losses in championship games: Alex ‘03, James ‘05, Ben ‘07, Alex ‘12), it holds a dominating 6-1 record in the consolation game (Richie ‘04, Jarrett ‘06, Colin ‘09, Alex ‘10, TJ ‘11, James ‘13). The #2 seed has cashed in every single season except one (Jarrett, 2014).  Overall, more than 80% of the teams that earned a bye have finished in the money, which is a figure that declines sharply once you hit………..

The #3 seed (JARRETT), where less than half (46%) have cashed. #3 seeds are the only seed aside from the #1 seed with a winning record in the title game, winning two of their three appearances (Ben ‘06, Drew ‘09). The numbers are similar for…………….

The #4 seed (JAMES), who has also gotten paid 46% of the time.  This seed represents the most non-bye championship appearances (five); two winners (Alex ‘05, Kurt ‘11) and three losers (Richie ‘08, James ‘09, Kurt '15).  #4 seeds have not fared well in the consolation game capturing just one win (Colin '14) against three losses (Richie ‘03, TJ ‘10, Alex ‘13).  Add it all up and the #4 seed is 3-6 in money games. The seed you must avoid at all costs is…………..

The #5 seed (RICHIE), who’s 8% cash rate makes it by far and away the least lucrative playoff seed in history.  With zero trips to the finals and one third place finish (Kurt ‘07), there’s no doubt this is the cement-shoe seed.  #5 seeds are 4-9 in the first round of the playoffs and 1-7 in their last eight, meaning more than two-thirds of their seasons end in the dreaded, pointless double consolation game. It’s amazing how much better it’s been to be…………..

The #6 seed (TJ), who’s one championship (James ‘10) and 38% cash rate is far more attractive.  Sure, they've taken their lumps; they've come in last more than any other seed (54%), but with three second-place finishes (Alex ‘04, Ben ‘11, Ben '14) and a cash back third (Colin '03), it’s not all that bad.  Plus, you’re automatically the Cinderella story that everyone roots for.  Sot you got that goin’ for you, which is nice.  But of course if you can’t read, there’s always this:

	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	$$$	Share
1 Seed	46%	15%	8%	31%	NA	NA	69%	33%
2 Seed	15%	31%	46%	8%	NA	NA	92%	23%
3 Seed	15%	8%	23%	15%	31%	8%	46%	14%
4 Seed	15%	23%	8%	23%	23%	8%	46%	17%
5 Seed	0%	0%	8%	23%	38%	31%	8%	1%
6 Seed	8%	23%	8%	0%	8%	54%	38%	12%

2016 Early Season Recap

Colin has jumped out to a fast start in 2016.  In fact, his seven straight wins out of the gate constitutes his longest winning streak ever!  Prior to this run, he ripped off a five week winning streak during weeks 13-17 of 2009.  If he wins 6-3 or better this week he will have his best ever start through 8 weeks.  Here are the all-time best records to start a season through eight weeks:

Manager	Year	Wins	Losses	Ties	%
Ben	2005	59	20	1	0.744%
Richie	2014	52	24	4	0.675%
TJ	2011	52	24	4	0.675%
Alex	2014	50	25	5	0.656%
Kurt	2010	50	26	4	0.650%

Jarrett’s 29-9-2 record over the last month has kept him within shouting distance after a slow start.  It’s his second best record over a 4 game stretch, falling short of last year’s 30-10 effort through weeks 10-13.  It seems as though Jarrett has finally figured out this fantasy baseball thing.  And I suppose that Kershaw guy helps.

From the hottest stock to the coldest, Adrian continues his sub-zero streak of futility:

Adrian’s posted back to back seasons with 23 wins through 7 weeks, an awful way to start the season.  What’s worse, he hasn’t even played Colin or Jarrett yet, his division’s top two teams.  Chris Archer, Justin Upton, and Tyson Ross (all ranked 600 or worse) have taken the wind out of his sails.  Here are the worst starts through 7 weeks in Diamond Dynasty history:

Manager	Year	Wins	Losses	Ties	%	Regular Season Finish
Kurt	2005	18	47	5	.293	3rd
Drew	2013	21	46	3	.321	10th
James	2011	22	46	2	.329	10th
Paul	2004	20	43	7	.336	12th
Adrian	2015	23	46	1	.336	10th

Kurt went on to lose week 8 of the 2005 season before ripping off the second best 14 week streak to close the season.  His 86-45-9 (.646) record through weeks 9-22 is second only to Jarrett’s 2014, 95-40-5 (.696) mark.  Jarrett’s 97-38-5 (.711) record through weeks 8-21 of that year stand as the greatest 14 week run in Diamond Dynasty history.

Moving to the better, more attractive division, Kurt’s rough start to 2016 is his third worst ever, behind his historic 2005 effort and 2014’s 25-40-5 (.393) mark.  He’s lost all three matchups to his hand-picked divisional foes and is already in panic trade mode.

The opposite is true for Ben, who boasts a perfect 3-0 divisional mark (albeit behind an unspectacular 15-12-3 record).  The division leader, Alex, is already a pathetic 14 wins behind Ben’s historic 2005 season while Richie, who gave all his picks to Alex and was ridiculed for it, sits a mere 1.5 games behind.  Suck it, haters.